Doug Casey on Uranium—“It Could Easily Quadruple”

Nick Giambruno: The story of Paladin Energy is a great example of why I’m so excited about this new uranium bull market.
The company leaped from one penny to $10 per share during uranium’s last bull market. That’s a 1,000-fold increase.
That means a $1,000 investment could have exploded into $1 million.
Even the worst-performing companies in the uranium sector delivered 20-to-1 returns.
Uranium can deliver these almost unbelievable returns because of unique supply-and-demand quirks that create colossal bull and bear markets.
Doug, you recommended Paladin during the last cycle. What’s your take on uranium today?
Doug Casey: I wrote a very long and thorough article on uranium and nuclear power in October 1998 for my newsletter, where I recommended several uranium stocks, including Paladin, that subsequently—about two years later—all exploded upwards in value.
When the market wants into gold stocks it’s like trying to force the contents of Hoover Dam through a garden hose. In the case of uranium stocks, it’s more like a soda straw. It’s a very small market.
These wild imbalances in supply and demand, accompanied by equally wild swings in price, often surprise people who aren’t familiar with the resource business. But it is the very nature of the beast. And one of the reasons speculating in it can be so profitable—if your timing is good.
It’s really only possible to raise money to discover deposits and build mines when prices are high, because that’s when the typical investor is willing to finance companies and thinks he’ll make a killing. Of course the industry takes advantage of that window, resulting in an immense amount of new capacity.
Meanwhile, the same high prices that encourage new production also start to discourage new consumption. Although that’s only marginally true with uranium, because the cost of fuel is trivial—no more than 5% worst case—of overall costs. Which means by the time the new production hits the market, after a time lag of several years, both prices and physical demand have collapsed—as have the share prices of surviving companies.
That is when professionals who understand the way these things work open up their checkbooks, because the resource business—oil, precious metals, grains, uranium, you name it—is as cyclical as the seasons of the year. It’s just that each commodity has its own peculiarities.
The uranium market like that of most metals is highly cyclical and very, very volatile. The time therefore to buy is when prices are low, which is exactly when most people are afraid to act.
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Nick Giambruno: Now seems to be one of those times.
Doug Casey: Right now uranium is very cheap again. It’s selling for under the cost of production, once again. So, I like uranium a lot.
When commodities sell below production costs for long enough, the producers go bust, and supplies drop. Then prices rise and production eventually goes back up.
At the peak of the last uranium bull market, in 2007, there were about 300 uranium exploration companies. Now there might be a dozen, mostly dormant.
Higher uranium prices will predictably switch investor sentiment from bearish to bullish. Then, as Wall Street belatedly reacquaints itself with uranium, companies will get value for assets which nobody could care less about today. It’s an eternal cycle, and quite predicable—except for its timing.
Nick Giambruno: I think we’re in the very early stages of a new uranium bull market. I expect the investment returns to be at least as explosive as they were during previous bulls.
The price will likely overshoot, since it will take years for production to catch up with increased demand. And demand for uranium is certainly increasing. New nuclear power plants in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea guarantee it.
Right now, 8% of global uranium demand comes from China. But China is expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest uranium consumer by 2030.
The Chinese think nuclear energy is the best solution to their huge air pollution problem. The increased demand from China alone should ensure that uranium prices rise.
Doug Casey: I doubt, especially in view of the fundamentals, that this will be the first bear market in history that’s not followed by a bull market. As the price of the commodity rises, the shares of producers should rise disproportionately. By 10 times? It’s happened before. And shares of exploration companies might increase exponentially.
I’m of the opinion that solar is—after 40 years of development—finally becoming economical, and will finally have its day in the sun, as it were. Solar finally makes practical sense.
That said, nuclear will remain the safest, cheapest, and cleanest form of mass power generation for a long time. Most people know nothing about the technology other than what they hear in a two-minute TV rant. Despite Einstein having been quite correct when he said, “After hydrogen, stupidity is the most common thing in the universe,” reality will win out in the end. Nuclear is the way to go.
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Nick Giambruno: I think Trump’s election signaled the birth of a new uranium bull market.
Trump likes nuclear energy. It fits right in with his “America First” platform. And it’s critical for securing the country’s energy independence.
He’s said, “I’m in favor of nuclear energy, very strongly in favor of nuclear energy.”
Trump is also enthusiastic about nuclear weapons. He has said:
The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to it senses regarding nukes.
The comment was aimed at Russia, the world’s other major nuclear power.
Russian President Vladimir Putin got the message. The same day he said, “We need to strengthen the military potential of strategic nuclear forces.”
Then Trump replied:
Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.
The world’s two largest nuclear powers are calling for more nuclear weapons. This is a huge boon for the uranium market.
Doug Casey: Well. The last thing the world needs is more nuclear weapons. But that’s probably in the cards…
But with a little luck we’re on the verge of a renaissance of nuclear power in the US. More certain, and more important, however, is that there are hundreds more reactors being planned in China, India, Russia, and other Third World countries. There are tremendous advances being made in nuclear technology, as well.
In my opinion, now is the time to act. This is especially true because of Donald Trump’s election. He’s actively working to promote the building of new nuclear plants and ease the burdensome regulations on mining uranium.
Now this has sparked a new bull market in uranium, but so far, it’s just barely come off of historic lows. It could easily quadruple from current levels, and even then, it would still be below its previous highs.
The real profits; however, will be in the shares of uranium exploration and mining stocks. It’s not unrealistic to expect the group to move 10 to 1. Some individual stocks will do much better. In past markets there have actually been 100 to 1 shots. Uranium stocks now present a rare opportunity in my opinion.
Nick Giambruno: So Doug, how do we find the next Paladin-like returns that could turn $1,000 into $1 million?
Doug Casey: The trick is to find companies that have the business plan, the knowledge, and the resources (both geological and financial) to exploit it.
The type of company I want should now be buying marginal resources and have the ability to put them into production quickly, preferably using fixed price contracts. To do that, they must have knowledgeable, reputable uranium people in place now. In a few years the sector will again be flooded with Johnny-come-lately promoters. That’s not when you want to buy…
Last, let me reemphasize, the companies you want must have the financial backing to allow them to survive until the inevitable becomes imminent.
Nick Giambruno: Thanks, Doug.
Doug Casey: Thanks, Nick.
Nick Giambruno’s Note: Months ago, I recommended a “best of breed” uranium company in Crisis Investing. My subscribers are already sitting on a double-digit gain as of this writing.
Of course, I can’t tell you the name of this company. That would be unfair to subscribers. But I can tell you why I’m so bullish on it.
This company has the upside of a junior exploration company—think 10-bagger or better. But it’s very low-risk.
This is the kind of trade we look for in crisis markets. The risk/reward is skewed in our favor.
In the last uranium bull market, this company’s share price rocketed 3,600%. That’s a 10-bagger almost four times over. I expect it to do at least as well in the coming uranium boom. Click here for more details.
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Lições da crise política alemã

00:12 – Eleições alemãs

Em dia de calmaria nos mercados, o momento é propício para falar da crise política alemã e o que esta significa para os seus ativos.

Para isso temos de voltar um pouco atrás…

Em setembro, o resultado das eleições foi um bocadinho mais confuso do que aquilo que possa ter pensado na altura.

Relembro que o partido de Angela Merkel, a CDU, ganhou as eleições, mas com a pior votação desde 1949.

Conseguir um quarto mandato é uma conquista considerável para qualquer líder democrático. Permanecer, aparentemente, sadia ao fazê-lo é quase extraordinário.

Em termos práticos, os dois grandes partidos – a CDU e os Sociais Democratas – perderam imensos votos. A esquerda ganhou alguns.

Todavia, o grande vencedor foi o partido nacionalista AfD – agora o terceiro partido mais representativo do Bundestag.

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01:04 – Negociações complicadas

Compreensivelmente, ninguém na Alemanha está disposto a negociar com um partido de extrema-direita, pelo que a chanceler alemã tem tentado negociar uma geringonça, carinhosamente chamada de “coligação Jamaica” – cores dos três partidos envolvidos: a CDU (preto), o FDP (amarelo) e os Verdes.

O problema é que nunca foi uma aliança com pernas para andar.

Não é tão improvável como o CDS-PP cooperar com os Verdes, mas quase.

Depois de várias semanas de negociações, a bomba caiu na madrugada de segunda-feira, quando as conversações falharam e o líder do FDP, Christian Lidner, abandonou a mesa de negociações.

02:06 – Três portas

Então e agora?

Não sou um perito em política alemã, mas vejo três alternativas:

A CDU pode tentar uma coligação com os sociais democratas – que são liderados por Martin Schulz – mas o ex-presidente do Parlamento Europeu já veio a público dizer que não está interessado.

Pode tentar avançar com um governo minoritário em coligação com os Verdes, o que significa tentar juntar alianças improvisadas de cada vez que surgir algo importante, o que não é uma situação muito confortável.

Pode também pressionar por uma nova eleição.

O principal receio com esta última opção é que o AfD faça ainda melhor que os 13% que amealhou em setembro.

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Só para si…

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Clique no livro e descubra o que temos para lhe oferecer.

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03:09 – Menos chatices

Uma coisa parece clara: levará ainda algum tempo até que a Alemanha tenha um governo propriamente definido.

Então o que é que isso significa, na prática, para o preço dos ativos?

Por um lado, o BCE deve estar satisfeito – a instabilidade política na maior economia da zona Euro deverá manter a moeda única fraca contra o resto das principais divisas do mundo.

Por outro, com este alvoroço em casa, o contingente alemão do banco central, que passa a vida a reclamar por taxas mais altas e menos intervenção, pode perder algum poder de fogo.

Se conhece o amor do mercado pelos estímulos, sabe com certeza que isto são ótimas notícias para o preço dos ativos.

04:02 – Euro mais fraco

Ironicamente, o euro mais fraco significa, geralmente, ações alemãs mais fortes.

Eu não estou a dizer que deve aumentar a sua exposição à Alemanha…

… em rigor, a instabilidade política pode aumentar a volatilidade no curto prazo.

Gráfico FTSE 100 – Fonte: Yahoo Finance

Porém, se tivermos em conta a reação da bolsa londrina ao Brexit e a subsequente desvalorização da libra, então não espere pelos saldos na bolsa.

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“Tilt! Game Over”

Anyone who’s ever played a pinball machine can attest to the fact that the player easily becomes wrapped up in it, to the point of the exclusion of all else happening around him. He hits the flippers rapidly, glancing up from time to time at his increasing score. It becomes irresistible to jiggle the table frequently, in an effort to get the ball to go where the player wants it to go.

And, of course, every player is familiar with the disappointment that comes when he’s overplayed his body English and the machine stops suddenly, lighting up a sign that says, “Tilt! Game Over.”

Much of the world is now embroiled in an economic game similar to pinball. The stakes are becoming ever greater, the flipper buttons are being pressed ever faster, and those who are desperately attempting to keep the collapsing system going are shoving the table ever more recklessly.

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At this point in the world economy, the number of possible triggers that could take the system down is growing ever more rapidly. And, for those who are paying attention, the list of dominoes that we’ll see fall is becoming ever more starkly apparent. Let’s have a look at just some of the more basic dominoes:

  • Creditor countries dumping US Treasuries back into the US market. (This has already begun and will continue until the dollar crashes.)
  • Cessation of the US dollar as the petrodollar. (This is about to begin, but will take several years to play out fully.)
  • Economic sanctions by the US against Russia and China (that are unlikely to have the support of the US’s allies).
  • Implementation of tariffs, resulting in a tariff war.
  • A rise in interest rates (as was consciously created in 1929 by the Fed in order to trigger a timed crash).
  • Bursting of the bond market bubble.
  • A major stock market crash.
  • Dramatic increase in mortgage defaults.
  • A spike in commodity prices, coinciding with a drop in asset values (inflation and deflation at the same time—the worst possible combination).
  • Collapse of the paper gold market.
  • A switch to the new IMF cryptocurrency and a major effort to end the use of cash. (This will succeed to some extent, but will create a worldwide monetary black market.)
  • US defaults on its debt. (This, too, will occur over several years.)
  • Collapse of the dollar.

Many of these events will be black swans. As can be expected, some of the events will be sudden, whilst others will take time to play out. In addition, although they’re likely to occur roughly in order, several will be in play at any given time.

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Although each of these events can be anticipated, they won’t come with warning notices. Their actual occurrences will be unheralded. (As an example, when a stock market crash occurs, investors will wake up to discover that it’s occurred whilst they were sleeping.)

And, just as in pinball, the end of the game will come quite suddenly. The moment that the player will know that it’s “Game Over” will be when he goes to his ATM and finds that the screen is dark. The machine has been made inoperative overnight. Annoyed, he’ll go to the next-nearest ATM, but will find that that one, too, is shut down. He’ll go to others and, at some point, will realise that they’re all shut down.

Without spending cash in his wallet, he’ll then go to the local gas station or supermarket and attempt to pay with his credit cards but will find that they’ve all been made inactive. In trying to sort out the problem with the manager, he’ll be told that all credit cards for all his customers have been denied that day.

The realization will suddenly hit that money has ceased to flow. For how long? The television news programmes will state that it will be temporary, but they don’t define “temporary.”

Those few individuals who understood that an economic crisis was brewing will take inventory of how much cash they have remaining in their wallets and how much they’ve stashed at home, and realise that this total now represents their total purchasing power.

Overnight, wealth is no longer measured in saleable assets, since, if virtually no one has spending money, they have no means of payment. Therefore, the fellow who thought that, if he found himself in a pinch, he could always sell the Harley in the driveway, or perhaps the family boat, for some quick cash, can no longer locate a buyer who can pay him—at any price.

Of course, many people will do all they can to contact their bankers, demanding that they be allowed to remove their money on deposit and extract the contents of their safe deposit boxes, but they’ll receive a recording, saying, “We’re sorry for the inconvenience, but the bank will be temporarily closed until further notice.”

At this point, “wealth” will change its definition to include only the cash in hand, plus whatever might be bartered.

Recently, I received an email from an associate in Canada, who asked, “When will I know when I really have to make a move?” My answer was, “You won’t. But there will be an actual day when you’ll know that you’ve waited too long and it’s now too late. That day will be the day that you visit the ATM and find it closed.”

That’s it. “Game Over.”

So, are we all doomed? Well, no, not at all. Those who are proactive can remove themselves from the system now, before the system reaches the “Tilt!”

If the reader lives in one of the jurisdictions that’s likely to be the most impacted (EU, US, Canada, etc.), he would be wise to liquidate his possessions there and move the proceeds to a jurisdiction that’s less likely to be impacted and which has a long reputation for economic stability. He should place his wealth (no matter how great or little) in precious metals and real estate overseas—again, in a safer jurisdiction.

He should retain some money (in cash and precious metals) at home, or nearby—enough to cover a few months’ expenses.

If he can afford to, he should then create a bolt-hole in a jurisdiction that he can go to quickly, should the crisis overtake him.

However, even those who recognize that their home country may soon become an economic prison camp are likely to dither, failing to prepare adequately. Sadly, they’re likely to find themselves in the position of the fellow in the photo above, discovering that “Game Over” has arrived before he could ready himself.

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Newsletter Empiricus Portugal 24/11/17

00:23 – Desta vez é diferente

“Desta vez é diferente” é, talvez, o chavão mais popular nos mercados financeiros durante os períodos de grande euforia.

Curiosamente, também é um dos mais perigosos.

Para a grande maioria é uma justificação para comprar a preços absurdos.

A necessidade de controlo das pessoas leva-as a procurarem (e inventarem) razões que confirmem a sua própria tese e a ignorarem toda a informação que a contradiz.

01:22 – Finanças comportamentais

O tema está bem documentado pelas finanças comportamentais.

As pessoas tendem a reunir informações de forma seletiva ou a interpretá-las de forma tendenciosa.

Tal efeito é mais forte em questões de forte carga emocional (o dinheiro sendo uma delas) e em crenças profundamente enraizadas.

Tendemos – também me incluo aqui – a interpretar evidências ambíguas de forma a sustentar as nossas posições preexistentes.

02:33 – Entendimento e racionalização

É curioso como as pessoas não se rendem e mantêm-se apegadas às tentativas de entendimento e racionalização.

Por que é que falo disto neste momento? Por duas razões essenciais.

A primeira porque à medida que a Empiricus cresce, chegam novos leitores/investidores à caça da nova ação mágica…

… aquela que só ele (e os fóruns de ações) conhecem, pronta a ser comprada e multiplicar por 10x.

A segunda refere-se a uma questão conjuntural.

Em conversas com os nossos leitores, tenho notado um crescente interesse pelas ações da moda.

Aquelas que negoceiam com valuations bem acima da sua média histórica.

03:44 – Carro em andamento

No curto prazo são normalmente estas que tem um melhor desempenho…

É como tentar apanhar um carro em andamento.

Mesmo que não tenha combustível, com a força do movimento ele ainda nos leva uns bons quilómetros.

O problema é quando acaba a gasolina e fica apeado.

Assim, o melhor mesmo é comprar boas empresas a preços atrativos que têm o depósito cheio.

04:09 – Revista aos mercados

Para terminar uma breve revista aos mercados…

Empurrados pelas notícias que apontam para uma grande coligação entre a CDU, o partido de Merkel, e o SPD, de Martin Schulz, os mercados vivem dia de disposição a risco.

A procura por maiores retornos em detrimento da segurança atravessa alocações numa esfera global.

Euro, commodities e bolsas em alta ligeira.

Feitas as contas da semana, parece que o mercado parou de cair. Bom momento para refletir nas suas posições e posicionar-se para aproveitar a oportunidade de uma vida.

Termine a sua semana com…

:. Está na hora de ganhar dinheiro a sério

:. Já teve oportunidade de assistir ao nosso curso de criptomoedas?

:. Obtenha retornos de 20% em 365 dias

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5 motivos que farão do bitcoin o melhor e mais rentável investimento de 2018, segundo a Forbes

5 motivos que farão do bitcoin o melhor e mais rentável investimento de 2018, segundo a Forbes – InfoMoney

 

 

Veja mais em: http://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/bitcoin/noticia/7109616/motivos-que-farao-bitcoin-melhor-mais-rentavel-investimento-2018-segundo?utm_campaign=bitcoin&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=58824295

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China Is About to Castrate the US Dollar

As Doug Casey has correctly noted, the prime directive of any organism—whether it’s an amoeba or a person or a corporation or a government—is to survive.

That’s why the US government protects the petrodollar so zealously. It needs the system to survive.

World leaders who have challenged the petrodollar recently have ended up dead…

Why Everyone Uses the US Dollar… for Now

In the 1970s, the US government struck a series of deals with Saudi Arabia, creating the petrodollar system. The US promised to coddle and protect the Saudi kingdom. And, in exchange, Saudi Arabia would use its dominant position in OPEC to ensure that all oil transactions happened in US dollars.

Until recently, virtually anyone who wanted to import oil from anycountry needed US dollars to pay for it.

The dollar is just a middleman here. But countries and businesses use it in countless transactions amounting to trillions of dollars that have nothing to do with US products or services.

Plus, if foreign countries are already using dollars for oil, it’s just easier to use the dollar for other international trade. That’s why, in addition to oil sales, the US dollar is used for about 80% of all international transactions.

Take Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, for example. Each led a large oil-producing country—Iraq and Libya, respectively. And both tried to sell their oil for something other than US dollars, before US military interventions led to their deaths.

In October 2000, Saddam had started to sell Iraqi oil for euros only. Iraq said it would no longer accept dollars for oil because it did not want to deal “in the currency of the enemy.”

A little over two years later, the US invaded. Immediately after Baghdad fell to US forces, all Iraqi oil sales were switched back to dollars.

Thanks to WikiLeaks’ release of Hillary Clinton’s emails, we know that protecting the petrodollar—not humanitarian concerns—was a primary reason for overthrowing Libya’s Gaddafi.

According to her leaked emails, the US (and France) feared that Gaddafi would use Libya’s vast gold reserves to back a pan-African currency. This gold-backed currency would have been used to buy and sell oil in global markets. Also, it would have likely displaced a version of the French franc that’s used in Central and Western Africa.

The US and France backed a rebellion, both militarily and financially, that overthrew Gaddafi in 2011.

After Gaddafi’s death, plans for the gold-backed currency—along with Libya’s 4.6 million ounces of gold—vanished.

Of course there were other reasons the US toppled Saddam and Gaddafi. But protecting the petrodollar was a serious consideration, at the very least.

Putin Is a Tougher Adversary

The dollar’s special status gives Uncle Sam tremendous leverage. So it’s no surprise that Russia wants to undermine the petrodollar system.

Russian President Vladimir Putin summed it up this way:

Russia shares the BRICS countries’ concerns over the unfairness of the global financial and economic architecture, which does not give due regard to the growing weight of the emerging economies. We are ready to work together with our partners to promote international financial regulation reforms and to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies.

Essentially, Putin is saying they all want to ditch the dollar.

That’s largely because the US uses the dollar as a political weapon. For example, the US tried to sanction Russia for its actions in Crimea and Ukraine. These sanctions made it harder for Russia to access the US dollar–based financial system. So of course Russia is going to push for an alternative.

Shortly after the sanctions, Russia struck a massive deal to sell oil and gas to China for yuan. The deal totally bypassed the US financial system… and any sanctions.

China’s Permanent Bypass Around the US Dollar

Russia is the world’s largest energy producer. China is the world’s largest energy importer. Normally, they would trade with each other exclusively in US dollars.

But, as I’ve told you in recent weeks, China is now introducing a more permanent way around that.

I call it China’s “Golden Alternative” to the petrodollar. It’s a streamlined way for Russia and everyone else to sell oil to China for yuan—or effectively gold.

China’s “Golden Alternative” to the Petrodollar

China is launching a practical and attractive alternative to the petrodollar system. It will allow anyone in the world to trade oil for gold. It will also totally bypass the US dollar.

Here’s how it will work…

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) is introducing a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan. It will allow oil producers to sell their oil for yuan.

Of course, China knows most oil producers don’t want a large reserve of yuan. So producers will be able to efficiently convert it into physical gold through gold exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Bottom line, two of the biggest players in the global energy market are totally bypassing the petrodollar system.

Informed observers say Russia is already converting a large portion of its yuan earnings to gold.

Of course, other countries are interested in sidestepping the US financial system and US sanctions, too. China’s Golden Alternative will give anyone the option to do just that.

This will make the US dollar a much less effective political weapon.

Other countries on Washington’s naughty list are enthusiastically signing up. Iran, another major oil producer, is accepting yuan as payment. So is Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves.

I think others will soon follow. From the perspective of an oil producer, it’s a no-brainer.

With China’s Golden Alternative, an oil producer can participate in the world’s largest market and try to capture more market share. It can also easily convert and repatriate its proceeds into gold, an international form of money with no political risk.

But this doesn’t apply to one critical holdout… Saudi Arabia.

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Twisting the Saudis’ Arm

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter. A lot of that oil goes to China, the world’s largest importer.

Beijing still reluctantly pays for Saudi crude in US dollars. The Saudis won’t have it any other way, at least for now.

This bothers China. It can only import Saudi crude by obtaining and then using US dollars. And that, of course, means it has to stay in Washington’s good graces.

Trump’s Treasury secretary really drove this point home recently. He threatened to kick China out of the US dollar system if it didn’t crack down on North Korea.

China would rather not depend on an adversary like this. This is one of the main reasons it’s launching the Golden Alternative.

Saudi Arabia, however, refuses to participate. It won’t sell its oil in anything but US dollars because that would break its longstanding petrodollar agreement with the US.

When China, Russia, and others trade oil for yuan, it’s a significant blow to the petrodollar. But if Saudi Arabia switched to yuan, it would take out the petrodollar… and cause an immediate financial panic in the US.

The truth is selling oil for yuan would cost Saudi Arabia a whole lot.

It would immediately lose American diplomatic and military protection. Then the media and think tanks would quickly start pounding the table for the US military to force democracy on Riyadh.

Last year Trump said, “If Saudi Arabia was without the cloak of American protection, I don’t think it would be around.”

He’s absolutely correct.

Of course, the Saudis know all of this. So they’ve been on a short leash… until recently.

In a surprise move, Saudi King Salman recently became the first sitting Saudi monarch to ever visit Russia.

Until recently, the visit would have been unthinkable. Saudi Arabia has been one of the US’ closest allies since the petrodollar system started in the 1970s.

Meanwhile, Russia and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades. Most recently, the Saudis and Russians have been on opposite sides of the Syrian Civil War.

That’s why King Salman’s historic visit to Moscow is so remarkable. The Saudis are clearly hedging their bets against the US and the petrodollar system.

Saudi Arabia is now drifting closer to Russia.

The Saudis have committed to invest up to $10 billion in various Russian sectors. But, even more significantly, they’ve agreed to buy the S-400 missile system, Russia’s top line air defense system, as part of a $3 billion weapons purchase.

This deal signals a geopolitical earthquake. The Saudis have neverbought Russian military equipment before.

Ever since the birth of the petrodollar, the Saudis have depended on American military protection. After all, it’s what they get in return for pricing their oil in dollars.

The S-400 system deal suggests the Saudis are hedging their bets. First, they’re not buying an American system. Second, they’re buying a Russian system that’s capable of deterring an American attack.

Saudi Arabia is making significant moves to give itself alternatives to American protection.

At the same time, China is cutting back on Saudi crude.

A few years ago, Saudi oil made up over 25% of Chinese oil imports. They were Beijing’s No. 1 supplier. Today, the Saudis’ market share has dropped below 15%.

In other words, the Saudis are losing massive market share and getting pushed out of the biggest oil market in the world. This is mainly because they refuse to sell oil to China in yuan.

China has made itself clear. It’s willing to expand business with anyone who will accept yuan as payment.

Today, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s top supplier. Its share of the lucrative Chinese market has grown from 5% to over 15%.

Russia’s enthusiastic acceptance of yuan as payment is the main reason for this shift.

In the meantime, Angola, an African oil producer, has also come on board. The country now accepts yuan as payment for its oil exports to China. It even made the Chinese yuan its second legal currency in 2015.

Chinese imports from Angola have shot up since. It’s now China’s No. 2 supplier, after Russia.

None of this bodes well for the petrodollar system.

The Saudis have two choices… rip up the petrodollar or get shut out of the world’s most lucrative oil market.

One way or another—and probably soon—the Chinese will find a way to compel the Saudis to accept yuan. The sheer size of the Chinese market makes it impossible for Saudi Arabia to ignore China’s demands indefinitely.

What to Watch For…

China might not convince the Saudis to ditch the petrodollar system tomorrow. But it’s making significant progress.

A few months ago, Saudi Arabia announced it was willing to issue Panda bonds to finance its government spending deficit. (Panda bonds are yuan-denominated bonds from non-Chinese issuers that are sold in China.)

This is remarkable. The Saudis’ currency is pegged to the US dollar. Up until this point, they’ve exclusively used US dollars for all of their major financial initiatives.

Issuing debt in yuan—instead of US dollars—is a significant move. It means Saudi Arabia is drifting closer to China.

Also, the Saudis recently inaugurated the massive Yasref refinery in the Saudi city of Yanbu. The refinery is an $8.5 billion joint venture between Saudi Aramco and China’s Sinopec.

These are noticeable steps. But the Saudis still haven’t given China what it really wants—oil for yuan.

However, it could happen soon…

The Largest IPO in History

In the coming months, the Saudis plan to float a 5% stake in Saudi Aramco, the state oil company.

Saudi Aramco is the most valuable company in the world. It will likely be the biggest equity offering ever. It could triple, or even quadruple, Alibaba’s current record initial public offering (IPO) of $25 billion.

The IPO’s success will depend on Saudi Arabia recruiting big cornerstone investors. But so far, Western investors haven’t shown a lot of enthusiasm.

For China, however, it could be the perfect opportunity to buy political influence in Saudi Arabia.

If China bought a large stake in the Aramco IPO, it would help cement its relationship with Saudi Arabia. It would also put more distance between the Saudis and the Americans.

And critically, it would give the Chinese more leverage to compel the Saudis to accept yuan for oil.

China is in the process of negotiating not just a 5% stake, but potentially a larger one.

Bottom line…the Saudis haven’t made a clean break with the US yet. However, they are drifting toward China financially and Russia militarily.

The Saudis are clearly setting up the option to dump the petrodollar.

If the Saudis sell oil to China in yuan, it would kill the petrodollar overnight. However, short of that, things still look very dire for the petrodollar.

The petrodollar system is facing serious erosion, thanks in large part to China’s Golden Alternative. That’s already baked into the cake.

And with that, severe inflation in the US is a certainty.

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Coinbase e Fidelity

A Coinbase – a maior exchange de criptomoedas dos Estados Unidos – firmou uma parceria com a Fidelity, a quinta maior empresa de gestão de ativos do país com uma carteira de 26 milhões de clientes.

Interessa-lhe o tema, quer saber mais?

Já lhe explico que impacto isto tem para o seu bolso.

A Fidelity lançou um serviço que permite aos seus clientes administrarem os seus ativos em criptomoedas dentro das suas plataformas de investimentos.

E é aqui que a Fidelity vai muito além do convencional…

Dos 2,3 biliões (ou triliões se prefere a formulação americana) de dólares sob a sua gestão, uma participação cada vez maior está a vir de uma moeda digital…

… refiro-me à Bitcoin.

A própria CEO da Fidelity, Abigail Johnson, nunca escondeu que é “uma defensora fervorosa do potencial da moeda digital.”

E não é conversa fiada…

A Fidelity permite que os seus 40.000 funcionários almocem na cafeteria da empresa utilizando Bitcoin como moeda.

Mas o que chamou a nossa atenção foi mesmo outro facto…

Abigail diz que a Fidelity recentemente abriu uma operação para mineração de Bitcoin. E isso está a tornar-se uma atividade lucrativa.

Segundo as palavras da própria CEO em entrevista à revista digital Quartz:

“Eu sou uma das poucas executivas do mercado financeiro que pode aparecer à sua frente hoje e afirmar que não desistiu das moedas digitais. Montámos uma pequena operação de mineração de Bitcoin e Ethereum… que (…) está a render-nos muito dinheiro.”

Algumas das moedas digitais mais conhecidas já têm sido responsáveis por valorizações estratosféricas.

Mesmo a Bitcoin, a mais conhecida de todas, encontra-se em máximos históricos:

Imagine agora o impacto que isto pode ter nas mais pequenas.

E muito antes de serem notadas por investidores institucionais.

Assim que fundos de investimento começarem a olhar para as criptomoedas, biliões de dólares de capital seguirão o mesmo caminho.

Lembre-se que esses fundos foram investidores iniciais de empresas como Facebook, LinkedIn e Twitter. Eles multiplicaram os seus capitais por 100 vezes ou mais só com esses investimentos.

Portanto, quando esses fundos apostam num tema, o leitor deve prestar muita atenção.

É precisamente por essa razão que deve estar com as antenas viradas para a Fidelity e criptomoedas.

Porque ainda é possível participar nos ganhos estratosféricos deste novo mercado e com isso acelerar outras conquistas financeiras.

Há um caminho específico que lhe facilita tudo isso…

Refiro-me à série Carta Empiricus onde encontrará tudo o que precisa saber para começar a investir em criptomoedas. A saber:

BITCOIN, Ethereum, Litecoin … Não importa a moeda. O leitor estará sempre bem informado.

Vamos trazer até si tudo o que for relevante no mercado das moedas digitais.

Foi identificada uma rara oportunidade de multiplicação do seu dinheiro neste novo mercado? Avisaremos o leitor na hora.

Com indicações simples e claras, receberá a cada 15 dias um relatório completo que vai mostrar passo a passo o que deve fazer no mercado das criptomoedas.

A SUA CHAVE PARA O SUCESSO

Se tivesse investido €1000 na Bitcoin a 23 de agosto, altura da nossa recomendação, estaria a ganhar atualmente praticamente o dobro.

É deste tipo de retornos que aqui estamos a falar.

Por esta altura deve estar a pensar em quanto lhe custará tudo isto.

Bem menos do que imagina, como verá já de seguida.

Por €49,90 ao ano, menos de cinco euros ao mês, apenas por alguns cêntimos ao dia, vai poder surfar esta onda estratosférica de valorizações.

Como vê, em pouco tempo e sem esforço poderá recuperar esse valor investido.

Sem contar que, se entender que o conteúdo não se encaixa no seu perfil, poderá pedir o reembolso da série nos primeiros 20 dias da assinatura. Sem apresentar justificações.

Não perca mais tempo – o mundo das moedas digitais está em constante mudança.

Os que demorarem mais tempo a agir poderão ter perdido a oportunidade.

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Milionário aos 25 anos com bitcoin, Jeremy Gardner diz que moeda pode chegar a US$ 300 mil

Jeremy Gardner é um dos maiores nomes do mercado de bitcoin e blockchain do mundo. O empresário pioneiro na realização de um ICO ficou milionário com criptomoedas aos 25 anos. Ele já largou a faculdade duas vezes e já fez diversos trabalhos sem ganhar nenhum centavo por eles. Hoje, é o co-fundador e Sócio da Blockchain Education Network, co-fundador da Augur e Venture Partner da Blockchain Capital e sócio da Ausum Ventures.

Recentemente ele esteve no Brasil para participar de um evento em São Paulo e deu uma entrevista exclusiva ao InfoMoney onde fala porque quis fazer um ICO quando ninguém sabia direito o que era isso. Gardner acredita que esta é uma boa ferramenta para arrecadar fundos, mas também vê um momento em que muitos projetos estão fadados ao fracasso.

Sobre as moedas, o empresário apontou algumas das que ele mais acredita que têm potencial para subir. No caso do Bitcoin, Gardner diz que quem diz que isto é uma bolha, “provavelmente está certo”, mas apesar disso, ele vê a moeda como o ouro digital, o que aponta um potencial do bitcoin valer mais de US$ 300.000 nos próximos 5 a 10 anos.

Confira a entrevista completa clicando aqui.

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,

War on Cash and the Future of Cryptocurrencies

Financial repression is a devious tactic.

At some point, every heavily indebted government uses it. It’s inevitable. And no entity on the planet is more indebted than the US government.

So, understanding what financial repression is and how to protect yourself from it is critical—whether you live in the US or any other indebted country.

Financial repression is a big umbrella term. You’ve probably heard it thrown around. Here’s a refresher from the Financial Times:

Financial repression is a term used to describe measures sometimes used by governments to boost their coffers and/or reduce debt. These measures include the deliberate attempt to hold down interest rates to below inflation, representing a tax on savers and a transfer of benefits from lenders to borrowers.

Financial repression is also used to describe measures to facilitate a domestic market for government debt and the imposition of capital controls. The combined effect of all these measures means funds are channeled to the government that would otherwise flow elsewhere.

The Financial Repression Authority recently had me on their show to discuss how this is playing out right now.

I’m sharing our discussion below.

If, like me, you value privacy and personal liberty, you won’t want to miss it.

Financial Repression Authority (FRA): Let’s begin with your thoughts on the war on cash. Where do you see that trending?

Nick Giambruno: I’m not going to mince words. The war on cash is evil. It’s an all-out assault on your privacy.

George Orwell once wrote, “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever.”

Not exactly a cheery thought. Unfortunately, we may be headed toward this dark future… and soon.

It’s a world where privacy is dead, where the government knows everything about you. And we’re almost there.

The government already knows what you watch on TV, what you read on the internet, whom you call, and everything you do on your smartphone and computer.

It has a record of every penny you’ve ever earned, saved, borrowed, or spent. It knows where you’ve been, where you are, and where you’re going.

This is all possible thanks to the mountain of laws and regulations that sprouted from the war on (some) drugs, the war on terror, and so forth. Over the years, these schemes have incrementally destroyed your privacy.

Now, with the war on cash, the government is going in for the kill.

There’s not much about your life the government doesn’t already know. The last vestiges of privacy may vanish very soon. Once that happens, governments will have almost unbreakable control over the individual.

This is exactly the opposite of how a free society should work.

The war on cash does not protect you from drug dealers or terrorists. It only helps the government seize more power. This is why proponents of big government reflexively support it.

There’s also a psychological aspect to this relentless anti-privacy campaign. The government and its media allies have convinced the average person that “privacy” is a dirty word.

They’ve duped people into believing that only criminals and wrongdoers want privacy. “If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to worry about,” as the popular, but wrongheaded, adage goes.

Many have forgotten that privacy is fundamental to preserving human dignity and protecting individuals from government overreach.

Financial privacy is by far the most demonized aspect of privacy.

This is a huge clue. Governments wouldn’t hate financial privacy so much if it weren’t so important to individual liberty.

Politicians around the world see people as milk cows. They merely exist to be squeezed to the last drop. That’s why politicians are so eager to kill financial privacy. They’re building a giant tax farm and erecting electric fences to keep the cows and their milk from escaping.

Overzealous governments have been attacking financial privacy for decades. Now, they’re within striking distance of killing it once and for all.

The war on cash is their final push.

The death of privacy in general, and financial privacy in particular, will have far-reaching sociopolitical consequences. It will irrevocably skew the balance of power in favor of the government and against the individual.

I call it “the new feudalism.”

A world without privacy is a giant step backward for human freedom. It’s the new Dark Ages that Orwell grimly predicted.

That’s why the war on cash is such a disturbing trend. But it’s a growing trend, nonetheless—not just in the US, but around the world.

FRA: Do you see governments getting involved with cryptocurrencies as part of the war on cash?

Nick Giambruno: First, it’s critically important to distinguish between a decentralized private cryptocurrency—like bitcoin—and a centralized cryptocurrency, which the government controls.

Bitcoin is a decentralized, non-state currency. Anyone in the world can use it.

In short, it’s financial kryptonite against the war on cash.

Bitcoin doesn’t use the traditional financial system. It has no central authority. Instead, it runs on a decentralized network scattered around the world. If you take certain steps, you can essentially make anonymous transactions.

You can take any amount of bitcoin in and out of any country. You don’t need permission from any government. You can send it—or take it with you—across borders as often as you want. And there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

With bitcoin, there’s no central location for a SWAT team to raid. There’s no “capo” to arrest. The government can do nothing but play an endless game of whack-a-mole across the globe.

It’s basically impossible for the US government, the Chinese government, or any government to kill bitcoin without shutting down the entire internet… and keeping it turned off.

I’ve seen this firsthand in Latin America. Governments there use capital controls to trap money within their borders so they have more to confiscate. Bitcoin helps people get around this because governments can’t freeze, seize, or block bitcoin transactions.

This is why bitcoin is such a disruptive and exciting technology. Just look at the surge in the bitcoin trading volume in crisis-ridden Venezuela recently.

Bitcoin’s resilience to government interference terrifies politicians everywhere. That’s a wonderful thing. They can (and will) try to regulate bitcoin, but they will fail.

There’s an ongoing demonization of private cryptocurrencies. It’s similar to the war on cash. The folks pushing the war on cash tell us ludicrous tropes, like only drug dealers and terrorists use large amounts of cash.

They say the same lies about private cryptocurrencies…

“Only terrorists and drug dealers use bitcoin,” and so forth.

What they’re really doing is laying the groundwork to further restrict cash and cryptocurrencies by demonizing them.

FRA: Do you think that governments will allow private-based cryptocurrencies to exist?

Nick Giambruno: First, let me say that it’s terrible for some bureaucrat to threaten people with state violence for voluntarily using their currency of choice.

But, back to your question…

The government doesn’t have a choice. It can try to control and regulate cryptocurrencies. But I don’t think the US government will have much more success than, say, Venezuela does in trying to control currencies that they don’t like their citizens to use. The cat is out of the bag.

It’s also instructive to look at file sharing on BitTorrent, a similarly decentralized technology.

BitTorrent has been around for over 15 years. Despite the US government’s best efforts to shut it down, it’s still easily accessible.

FRA: Do you think central banks will promote the war on cash to make implementing negative interest rates easier?

Nick Giambruno: Absolutely.

Central bankers are a bunch of witch doctors who’ve convinced everyone they’re neurosurgeons. So don’t place your confidence in them.

Instead, I recommend thinking for yourself. You don’t need any special training to be your own economist. You just need a healthy dose of common sense.

Negative interest rates are a bizarre, perverse concept. Basically, someone is getting paid to borrow money. It’s completely backwards.

Negative rates could not exist in a free market with voluntary interactions and sound money.

They’re only possible because of legalized fraud, government coercion, and central economic planning.

If you don’t like losing money to negative interest rates, you can certainly stash your cash under the mattress. As a practical matter, this limits how far governments and central banks can take negative rates.

The more it costs to store money at the bank, the less people will do it.

Of course, central bankers don’t want you to withdraw money from the bank. This is a big reason behind their totalitarian war on cash.

On a related note, you don’t even own the fiat Federal Reserve Notes you deposit in your bank account. Once you deposit paper money at the bank, it’s no longer your property. It belongs to the bank.

What you own is a promise from the bank to repay you. That’s a very different thing from cash in hand. Yet 99.9% of people wrongly conflate the two.

The currency in your bank account is really just an unsecured liability. Technically, you’re a creditor of the bank.

And that means a bank bail-in would probably burn you.

A bail-in is when a bank recapitalizes itself by tapping its creditors. That includes all of its average Joe depositors.

We saw this happen in Cyprus in 2013. Since then, bail-ins have been codified into law in the EU, Canada, and the US.

The next time big banks get into trouble—which is a virtual certainty with the fraudulent fractional reserve system—they’ll dip into depositors’ accounts to try to keep the Ponzi scheme running.

Lastly, the US already has negative interest rates.

While interest rates in the US are nominally positive, when you factor in the real rate of inflation, they are clearly negative.

Editor’s Note: Politicians and central bank “witch doctors” are threatening more than your privacy. Together, their schemes have created an unparalleled hazard to your financial security. Find out all the details in a special video with Doug Casey and his team.

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Por que é que Warren Buffet não iria ao Web Summit

Uma das frases mais famosas de Warren Buffett é mais ou menos assim:

“Compre um negócio que qualquer idiota possa gerir porque, mais tarde ou mais cedo, um idiota provavelmente irá fazê-lo.”

Para Buffett, alguns negócios são tão bons que estariam blindados a qualquer má gestão.

Foi seguindo essa filosofia (e outras) que se tornou um dos maiores acionistas de empresas como American Express, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola e Kraft Heinz.

Mas será que a filosofia do maior investidor de todos os tempos teria aplicação no mundo das empresas de tecnologia?

Nas próximas linhas vou provar como Warren Buffet nem iria ao Web Summit, em Lisboa.

TAMANHO

Nos últimos 4 anos, as empresas que participaram no evento captaram mais de 50 mil milhões de euros de investidores.

Apesar de parecer um valor expressivo, ainda é pequeno quando comparado à fortuna do mega-investidor e do montante sob gestão da sua empresa.

Mesmo que Warren gostasse muito de uma startup portuguesa e comprasse uma boa porção do seu capital, seria tão irrelevante dentro do seu portfólio que mesmo que se multiplicasse por mil não traria nenhum ganho relevante para o seu património.

Investir em pequenas empresas, mesmo que brilhantes e promissoras, não é uma opção para os mega-investidores.

INVESTIR EM PESSOAS E NÃO EM NEGÓCIOS

Por detrás de uma grande ideia, existem pessoas.

Mas uma grande ideia não fica de pé por conta própria.

Várias startups de sucesso começaram com uma ideia, mas quando realmente explodiram já se tinham tornado algo completamente diferente.

O mundo da tecnologia é altamente dinâmico e o que é sucesso hoje pode tornar-se obsoleto em poucos anos.

Veja o caso da Amazon, que começou como uma livraria online e passou a oferecer serviços de cloud computing (20% do resultado financeiro) e agora ataca o mercado de retalho físico através da Whole Foods.

Mais do que investir numa ideia, é preciso investir numa equipa altamente qualificada, apaixonada pelo projeto e com uma grande capacidade de perseguir resultados.

Investir num idiota, portanto, não é uma opção.

Aliás, Jeff Bezos da Amazon, que já foi apelidado de louco, é certamente uma das pessoas mais inteligentes (e ricas) do mundo.

CONVEXIDADE NA VEIA

Num dos painéis promovidos pelo programa Shark Tank, um dos maiores gestores de Venture Capital do mundo deu uma aula de convexidade.

Ele explica que é impossível analisar com profundidade as mais de 5.000 oportunidades que lhe chegam todos os anos.

Sendo um investimento altamente arriscado e de difícil previsão, ele distribui o investimento pelo maior número de empresas possível, desde que apresentem condições mínimas de uma startup com grande potencial.

Em 1.000 investidas, provavelmente 900 irão morrer. Talvez 80 sobreviverão, mas ainda assim sem trazer grandes retornos ao portfólio…

Agora, as restantes 20… essas sim!

Vão multiplicar-se por 1.000%, 5.000%, 10.000%…. E vão mais que compensar o prejuízo de todas aquelas que morreram.

Foi assim com as maiores empresas do mundo: Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft e Netflix.

Todas elas já foram pequenas.

PEQUENOS NEGOCIOS, GRANDES RETORNOS

Existe um universo de empresas que não estão no radar dos grandes investidores simplesmente porque não oferecem condições de liquidez.

Na bolsa de valores estas ações são chamadas de MicroCaps, empresas com valor de mercado inferior a 250 milhões de euros.

Com a intenção de garimpar as pequenas de hoje que podem vir a ser as gigantes de amanhã, lançámos uma nova série com oportunidades reais de multiplicação dos seus investimentos em até 31x.

Aquelas pequenas ações que hoje são ridiculamente baratas, mas que podem explodir em pouquíssimo tempo.

Convido o leitor a participar num grupo exclusivo e seleto que recebe recomendações secretas e privilegiadas sobre quais serão as próximas MicroCaps a EXPLODIREM NA BOLSA.

Recomendo que leia este material com urgência pois ficará no ar durante POUQUÍSSIMO TEMPO.

Agora fique com as melhores leituras da semana.

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