China’s Most Powerful Weapon in the Coming Trade War |
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| by Nick Giambruno | February 22, 2018 | |||||||||
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| “When any market is down 90%, you’re obligated to go and investigate.”
That’s what Doug Casey often says. And it’s part of the reason I put my boots on the ground in China a few months ago. As I told you yesterday, the country has a monopoly on a little-known resource market. For years, stocks in this sector only went down. The industry was left for dead… until recently. The last time this happened, the price of this resource skyrocketed over 10 times almost overnight. And, as I’ll show in a moment, I think there’s a strong chance a similar mania will start soon… China’s MonopolyMost people have never heard of the material China controls. But it’s essential to modern life. It’s used to make crucial components for advanced electronics like iPhones, electric cars, flat-screen TVs, computers, and sophisticated military equipment—like guidance systems, drones, anti-missile systems, radars, and fighter jets. The United States’ top-line fighter jet, the F-35, contains nearly 450 kilograms of this material. There’s no substitute for this resource in these advanced electronics. The US military and US consumer depend on it. The problem is that finding this material isn’t cheap. And once you find it, mining it is expensive and messy. It takes about 40 tonnes of rock (40,000 kilograms) to get only about 250 kilograms of this valuable material. The costs are even higher if you separate the material from the ore in an environmentally friendly way. But China is willing to do the dirty work. Beijing helps by subsidizing the industry. Meanwhile, many companies in other countries—operating without hefty state subsidies—go bankrupt. Plus, China doesn’t fret about the environmental fallout as much as other countries. This lets it produce the material at a much lower cost than its competitors.
Until recently, one company in the US still produced a small amount of this material. Then, after a spat with a neighboring country, China flooded the market with supply. This oversupply drove the last US company out of business. According to a US Congressional report: [China] flooded the market by more than tripling the previous world supply of the materials. During this time, [Chinese firms] were largely unprofitable but were allowed to survive through direct and indirect support by the Chinese government. This backing enabled [China’s industry] to continue to mine and export these materials at prices far below the actual costs of production… Mines in the United States and elsewhere, unable to remain profitable against cheap Chinese exports, went out of business. This is how China undercut everyone else and came to dominate the industry. Today, China produces around 90% of global supplies of this material. In short, no one poses a serious threat to China’s monopoly. China can simply hold prices lower for longer than any competitor can stay solvent.
This unchallenged monopoly could quickly become a huge problem for the US. But the US government won’t just sit on its hands… The US-China Trade War Is Heating UpRegular readers know I think a full-blown trade war between the US and China is imminent. And we’ve already heard the opening shot. Let me explain… Early on in his presidency, Donald Trump indicated that he wouldn’t handle China like the previous US presidents. In January 2017, he became the first president in 40 years to speak with the leader of Taiwan, an island off the coast of China that Beijing considers a renegade province. Even during the campaign, Trump famously threatened a 45% tariff on Chinese goods entering the US. He also said China was sucking “the blood out of the United States” and “we can’t continue to allow China to rape our country, and that’s what they’re doing.”
Getting tough with China on trade is a campaign promise Trump can actually keep. He doesn’t need anyone’s cooperation. Legally, he can implement the necessary policies on his own. And last summer, Trump fired the first shot in the trade war. His administration launched an investigation against China using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. This rarely used provision allows Trump to “take all appropriate action… to obtain removal of any [trade] practice that is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.” The Chinese considered this a provocative move. Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) was founded in 1995, member countries—including China and the US—have traditionally settled trade disputes through it. But Trump, using the Section 301 investigation, is taking a one-sided approach. China’s Not-So-Secret WeaponAs I mentioned yesterday, China has a big card to play now. It could easily restrict supplies of the special material again. That would bring any country—including the US—to its knees. This isn’t some wild speculation. Remember, China didn’t hesitate to restrict supplies in the past. Plus, if it restricts supplies again, I think the WTO will give its blessing. That’s because China’s move would probably be in response to one-sided US trade penalties—something Trump has already shown he’s willing to implement. There’s no way around it. The Chinese are ready to use their monopoly in this market. It’s their ultimate weapon in the trade war with the US. The good news for investors is that we can use this crisis to make huge profits. Prices of this special resource are still near their lows for this cycle. So before tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate further, we can buy a dollar’s worth of assets for a dime or less. This way, we’ll be positioned to profit before the war heats up and the next mania kicks in. Until next time,
P.S. My team just released a brand-new video presentation with more details on the conflict… and several ways you can position yourself to profit today. It includes background details on the one tiny company I think will soar in the coming months… potentially handing investors as much as 10 times their money. Watch it right here. |
The US vs. China: A Study in Opposites |
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| by Jeff Thomas | February 24, 2018 | ||||||||||
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| In the first photo, taken in 1972, US President Richard Nixon made what was then considered a bold move, visiting Mao Zedong in Communist China. Literally, as well as figuratively, Chairman Mao is on the left and Mr. Nixon is on the right.
In the second photo, taken over forty years later, we have US President Barack Obama making a similar visit to China. This time, again literally as well as figuratively, Mr. Obama is on the left and Chinese President Xi Jinping is on the right. Over the ensuing four decades, both countries have been changing dramatically. The US has become increasingly socialistic, more focused on Big Government and more of a totalitarian state. In 1972, it was the world’s foremost creditor nation; it is now the world’s foremost debtor nation. By contrast, China, since the death of Chairman Mao, has opened up considerably, with billions of people becoming upwardly mobile, in response to China becoming increasingly capitalistic. To be sure, both countries retain some of their historical features, but increasingly, the US is acting like a country in decline, whilst China is acting like a country on the rise.
As a result of successful capitalism, the US became the world’s foremost power after World War II. Then, in the 1960s, the US began apologising for the spoils that came with that capitalism. It became increasingly popular for Americans (largely at the urging of the media and the political structure) to be ashamed of capitalistic achievements and to head in a more socialistic direction. Republican politicians have needed to soften their views on capitalism in order to appear to be “good people.” (“Good people” has essentially come to mean “those who are prepared to take from the rich and give to the poor.”) They are now Republicans in name only. The US still has two major parties, but one is a moderately liberal party and the other is a vehemently liberal party. China has gone in the opposite direction, becoming increasingly capitalistic. The results have been dramatic. Many Chinese now have all the trappings that Americans do. In addition, their government is expanding more each year into capitalism. Again, these developments have followed along the lines of “Declining Empire” vs. “Burgeoning Empire.” Increasingly, the US approach to the world has become one of demanding that other countries subjugate themselves to the US, as though they are subsidiaries of the empire. The US has demanded that trade in many essentials (particularly energy) be settled in the US dollar. As this relationship has been crumbling in recent years, the US has responded by threatening other countries, creating sanctions against them, and even invading them. In doing so, the US has earned the reputation as the schoolyard bully of the world—the country that the world loves to hate. They still have to play ball with the US, but the resentment is growing globally. (It should be noted here that, if and when a schoolyard bully does fall from his position, he is stomped on, not only by his challenger, but also by those who resented and hated him but had previously deferred to him and pretended to befriend him. Similarly, when empires fall from grace, “staunch allies” frequently switch sides rather quickly.) In contrast to the US, the Chinese have, in recent decades, displayed the sort of capitalism that is indicative of a burgeoning global player. They are, in effect, saying, “We’re open for business and we’re here to deal. We have some creative ideas to offer that we think you’ll welcome.” They’re not twisting arms behind backs. They’re offering creative opportunities for other countries. In addition, they’re not aiming for immediate gratification. Their aim is for long-term benefits, just as US goals once were. Today, the Chinese are buying up properties on every continent, setting up businesses, and making sure that the locals benefit from their investments. In addition, they’re creating deals with governments that those governments could not create on their own. They seek out a country like Venezuela that is on the ropes economically and offer to buy heavily into Venezuela’s primary asset—oil—to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. The deal is not intended to provide a major return for China in the short term, but it does place China in the economic catbird seat in Venezuela over the long haul.
Around the globe, state-backed Chinese developers are offering creative deals to other countries’ political leaders. For example, if a small nation needs, say, a new port and the port costs $50 million (an amount that the country does not have), the Chinese offer to build the port for, say, $30 million, a bid that no other developer can meet. The Chinese developer takes a loss on the construction, but a part of the deal is that he gets a significant portion of the income of the port for, say, 50 or 75 years. Chinese developers are now executing such deals in nearly every country in the world. What they lose in profits upon completion is made up for in long-term income. As a bonus, China not only owns property worldwide, it is a shareholder in the economies of countries worldwide. This rapidly expanding global Chinese capitalism is receiving little notice in the US media, but that, most certainly, will change. As the US reaches its own economic tipping point—market crashes, currency collapse, etc.—and finds that it can no longer pay even the interest on its debt, it will also discover that it cannot pay out the benefits promised to the 50% of its population who pay no income tax but are recipients of governmental largesse. The US government will then find itself desperately trying to keep this portion of the population at bay, as payouts to recipients decrease. As a result, governmental capital projects will fail to receive funding. Someone will need to step in and offer “creative bidding.” Enter the Chinese. Once the US is on more of a Third-World economic footing, it will have little choice but to accept the kinds of deals that the Chinese have recently offered in Jamaica, Egypt, Nicaragua, etc. The result will be Chinese ownership not only of considerable US real estate and corporations within the US, but ownership of US infrastructure. Today, the vestiges of Communism undoubtedly remain in China, but the move is decidedly away from Communism, toward capitalism. Conversely, the US seems to be hell-bent on replacing US capitalism with a socialist totalitarian state. Since more than 50% of Americans are now on the dole in some form, it seems highly unlikely that the US will suddenly reverse that direction, since the majority of Americans will vote for continued (and increased) government hand-outs. Both Chairman Mao and President Nixon are now pushing up daisies, and their present-day replacements are reverse images of them. The future belongs to those who are productive. As investment guru Jim Rogers has stated, the future belonged to the British in the 19th century and the Americans in the 20th century. The Chinese will own the 21st century. Accordingly, Mr. Rogers made Singapore his home. We are passing through the early stages of a period of dramatic change. The economic and political world is in the process of turning upside down. Those who come out the other side of this change with their skin on will be those who have diversified both their wealth (however large or small) and, indeed, themselves, so that they are positioned to thrive in the future, rather than to remain where they are and be a part of the decline. Regards,
Jeff Thomas Editor’s Note: Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can do to change the trajectory of this trend in motion. The best you can do is stay informed so you can protect yourself… and even profit. We just released a brand-new video presentation with details on China’s latest move…and the one group of stocks that could soar higher… Plus, if you’re considering diversifying internationally, watch your inbox on Monday. Jeff will share specific actions you can take when looking for a second home abroad. |
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| What is the greatest secret in all of investing?
What really separates amateurs from professionals? Losers from winners? If you search the internet, you’ll find dozens of people with dozens of answers to this question. Some will say the secret is their proprietary trading system. Some will say it’s their method of picking stocks. I’m sure some of those ideas are useful. But they’re not nearly as useful as something I call “the most powerful wealth-building secret in investing.” Master this skill and you’ll consistently spot opportunities to make five or 10 times your money on safe investments. I know that’s counter to the conventional investment wisdom that says you have to take big risks to make big returns. Well, after learning this secret, you’ll know that you most certainly do not have to take big risks to make big returns. You’ll know most people have it backwards. You simply have to know how to apply this one skill. It’s a skill that helped make Warren Buffett one of the richest men in the world. A skill that helped make Casey Research founder Doug Casey millions of dollars in the stock market. And a skill that made Sir John Templeton a rich man and one of the most respected investors of all time. I’ll tell you what this skill is in a moment. First, I want to show you three real examples of how it has made investors rich.
• In 1939, legendary investor John Templeton made a fortune betting against the crowd… At the time, millions of Americans were in poverty due to the Great Depression. And Nazi Germany had just invaded Poland to kick off World War II. There was an incredible amount of fear in the world. But Templeton, a recent college grad, invested $10,000 in U.S. stocks. That’s the equivalent of $167,000 today. Amazingly, Templeton didn’t even study which companies to buy. He didn’t need to. He knew that the extreme fear in the world had pushed U.S. stocks down to ridiculously cheap prices. So, he simply bought any stock selling for less than $1 on the New York and American stock exchanges. Four years later, Templeton sold his portfolio for a 300% gain. Today, he’s known as the greatest stock picker of the last century. • In 2008, iconic U.S. bank Lehman Brothers failed… It was the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history. U.S. stocks crashed more than 50%… the biggest crash since the Great Depression. And the stock prices of many great businesses dropped 80% or more. People were terrified of losing everything: their jobs, their houses, their life savings. There was an incredible amount of fear in the markets. But the fear was masking an incredible opportunity… It was the best time to buy quality stocks in 30 years. Investors who purchased quality stocks in late 2008 made a killing. For example, an investor who bought stock in coffee chain Starbucks in late 2008 made more than 1,900% on his money. An investor who bought technology company Apple made as much as 966%. Ford Motor Company’s stock gained more than 1,200% in just over two years after the financial crisis. The list goes on. Many quality companies gained at least 10x in less than two years from February 2009, including Ruby Tuesday (+1,072%), Crocs (+1,347%), La-Z-Boy (+1,016%) and Gulfport Energy (+1,227%).
• In 2010, an oil rig named Deepwater Horizon exploded off the coast of Louisiana… The blast instantly killed 11 workers and eventually spilled 4 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. It was the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history… and the biggest oil spill in world history. The negative media coverage was nonstop. Newspapers ran pictures like this:
As partial owner of the oilrig, British oil giant BP became one of the most hated companies in the world. In a matter of weeks, BP’s stock price collapsed from $59 to $27… for a stunning loss of value of $105 billion. At that point, hardly anyone would touch BP stock… but smart investors asked, “Are BP’s assets really worth $105 billion less today than they were a month ago… or are investors overreacting?” It turned out investors were overreacting. Buying BP stock near its bottom made an 80% gain in just a year. It also locked in a safe 6% (and growing) dividend yield. • Although these stories of massive wealth creation are all very different, they have one thing in common… They show the power of buying assets during times of maximum pessimism… when no one else wants to buy. You see, from time to time, an extraordinary opportunity comes along to buy a dollar’s worth of assets for a dime. If you can spot these opportunities, you can make gigantic returns without taking big risks. After all, the gains we just discussed didn’t come from investing in speculative biotech stocks or tiny gold companies. Many of them came from just the opposite: iconic, blue-chip American companies that have been around for decades. According to Wall Street, you must take big risks to earn big returns. But these stories show that’s not true. Buying valuable assets for pennies on the dollar is one of the least-risky investments you can make. Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers, and generations of Rothschilds got rich using this strategy. I believe this is the most powerful wealth-building strategy available to anyone. Amateur investors run from crisis. Great investors run toward it. Until next time,
P.S. Last week, I joined legendary speculator Doug Casey and his longtime friend and colleague Bill Bonner in our first ever Legends of Finance Summit. During the summit, we discussed Bill’s bold “Trade of the Century” idea and the story behind six different ways to play it. As regular readers know, I’m an extreme value hunter, searching for cheap, speculative penny stocks. And three of those six plays use my method. Learn more right here… |
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S&P 500 – Fonte: Bloomberg
VIX – Fonte: Bloomberg
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This is not fiction…
It’s not a conspiracy theory…
It’s a plausible explanation for a mysterious event that actually happened.
On the evening of May 28, 1993, an enormous blast rocked the Australian Outback. It measured 3.9 on the Richter scale and sent shock waves out hundreds of miles. Truck drivers and gold prospectors in the area saw the dark sky light up with a bright flash.
I only heard about the incident last year, when Doug Casey and I met a shadowy figure with deep connections to the US government in a café in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
He and his colleagues within the US military and intelligence community were 100% convinced that this strange event was actually Aum Shinrikyo—a Japanese doomsday cult—testing a nuclear weapon.
If he was right, then it was the first time a non-state actor had ever detonated a nuclear bomb.
It was such an extraordinary claim that, at first, I didn’t even think it possible. No one I knew had ever heard of it. And I’d never seen it in the news, though I later discovered that outlets like The New York Times did cover it decades ago—buried somewhere in the back pages.
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Aum Shinrikyo, which means Supreme Truth, is a religious movement that started in Japan in 1984. They believe in a doomsday prophecy where World War 3 ushers in a nuclear Armageddon. Of course, only their group survives, and they go on to rule the world.
Aum gained global notoriety in 1995 when it attacked the Tokyo subway system with sarin gas, a deadly nerve agent. The attack, which was meant to spark a Japanese civil war, killed 13 people and injured thousands. It was the first chemical weapons attack by a non-state actor.
The Tokyo subway attack surprised Japan and other world governments, and they rushed to learn more about the group.
It turns out Aum was not just a small group of vulnerable people with strange views. The cult had ballooned to over 50,000 converts in at least six countries and acquired over $1 billion in assets.
The US government learned that the cult had recruited at least two Russian nuclear scientists and tried to buy a Russian nuclear warhead.
As investigators unraveled Aum’s international web, they found it had purchased a 500,000-acre ranch at Banjawarn Station, about 400 miles northeast of Perth in remote Western Australia.
They discovered Aum had set up an advanced laboratory there, where it manufactured sarin gas and tested chemical weapons on sheep. There were known uranium deposits in the area, and Aum was mining them. (Uranium is a main ingredient for making atomic weapons.)
But what disturbed and puzzled them the most was that Aum’s ranch was in the exact same area as the mysterious 1993 explosion.
Investigators calculated that the explosion had the force of 2,000 tons of high explosives, or that of a small nuclear device. For perspective, the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima had the force of around 15,000 tons of high explosives.
The bizarre blast happened two years before the Tokyo subway attack. At the time, Aum wasn’t really on anyone’s radar. Most people simply wrote it off as a strange explosion in the middle of nowhere. No one really thought much of it, until they connected the dots years later…
Investigators feared that Aum had somehow acquired and tested a massive weapon—possibly the ultimate weapon. After all, they’d successfully recruited at least two Russian nuclear scientists to their cult. And they’d tried to buy nuclear weapons.
Investigators hoped they could rule out Aum by proving the blast was something else—an earthquake, a mining explosion, or possibly a meteor.
Instead, they found themselves ruling out all the possibilities they had hoped to prove.
It’s highly unlikely the blast was a mining explosion. The detonation was over 170 times more powerful than the biggest mining explosion ever recorded in Australia up until then.
The blast was consistent with a meteor strike… except for one key element: With an explosion of that force, they’d expect to find an enormous crater with a diameter of at least three football fields. They never found a crater.
Earthquakes are rare in the region. And it wouldn’t explain the loud noise or bright flash on a pitch-black night in the Australian Outback.
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Some insiders are certain Aum detonated a nuclear device of some sort. However, the investigators still haven’t decisively proven what happened. The cause of the gigantic blast remains a mystery.
This unusual story has been on my mind lately for good reason. If the group did build a nuclear weapon, it certainly needed uranium. And regular readers know uranium is my #1 investment for the year…
If I were putting my own money into something today, it would be uranium, hands down. It simply has the most explosive upside right now.
Uranium can deliver almost unbelievable returns because of unique supply-and-demand quirks that create colossal bull and bear markets.
Take Paladin Energy, for example. Doug Casey recommended this company during the last uranium bull market, and it leaped from one penny to $10 per share. That’s a 1,000-fold increase.
In other words, a $1,000 investment could have exploded into $1 million.
Even the worst-performing uranium companies delivered 20-to-1 returns during the last bull market. Today, uranium is the most distressed resource market in the world. But the current supply/demand imbalance has a lot in common with the last market cycle. It’s setting the stage for the next boom.
Then you factor in President Trump. He’s strongly pro-nuclear energy. It fits right in with his “America First” platform. Trump’s policies could effectively supercharge the coming uranium bull market.
For all these reasons, I am very bullish on uranium.
That’s why I recommended a “best of breed” uranium company in Crisis Investing. Subscribers are already sitting on a double-digit gain. I think it still has a lot more upside.
In the last uranium bull market, this company’s share price rocketed 3,600%. That’s a 10-bagger almost four times over. I expect it to do at least as well in the coming bull market.
Now is the time to get positioned for these kinds of explosive returns.
Until next time,
Nick Giambruno
Senior Editor, International Man
P.S. At last night’s Legends of Finance Summit, Doug and I discussed some of our most profitable speculations… including Doug’s thoughts on where uranium’s headed next. If you missed it, don’t worry. We’re making a replay available until midnight. Click here to watch it…
Dose de ansiolíticos
Acredito piamente que os profissionais de saúde mental deviam focar a sua atenção no mercado financeiro.
O trabalho nas corretoras, bancos de investimento e gestoras de fundos não encontra paralelismo com qualquer outra atividade conhecida pelo Homem, o que, na minha opinião, tende a gerar uma incidência de determinados transtornos muitíssimo maior do que na população em geral.
Por um lado, a exposição prolongada a um ambiente de trabalho especialmente hostil e inerentemente instável tem, necessariamente, de provocar alterações no funcionamento do organismo humano.
Por outro, indivíduos com determinadas características biológicas tendem a sobressair neste ramo de atuação.
Um dos principais responsáveis por estas alterações de humor é o belo do bónus anual.
Para muitos, esta componente variável do seu salário representa mais de metade do que ganham num ano e, infelizmente, depende e muito do desempenho da sua carteira.
É certo e sabido que os traders, brokers e gestores lutam taco a taco por uma décima de overperformance, mas ninguém lhe explica (a si) como ganhar com isso.
Aproveite a caça ao bónus
A longo prazo, a performance das empresas de pequena capitalização supera significativamente as gigantes da bolsa – em média.
De acordo com a famosa base de dados Ibbotson, propriedade da Morningstar, a margem de ganho das pequenas em relação às maiores desde 1926 é de 2,2 pontos percentuais anualizados.
Portanto, se os gestores quiserem bater o mercado terão de, obrigatoriamente, apostar nas empresas mais pequenas.
No entanto, a ganância pelo bónus tende a impactar a forma como os gestores definem a sua alocação ao longo do ano…
Os académicos rastrearam a variação sazonal nos desempenhos das empresas de pequena capitalização (microcaps) aos incentivos de compensação que levam muitos gestores institucionais a favorecerem as grandes empresas perto do final do ano e as pequenas no início.
Repare no seguinte exemplo:
Considere um gestor cujo desempenho no acumulado do ano está atualmente acima do seu benchmark (normalmente dominado por grandes empresas).
Se ele conseguir manter essa liderança durante o resto do ano irá, provavelmente, encaixar um bónus chorudo.
Para não correr o risco de perder essa margem de liderança, mais perto do final do ano, desloca as participações do portfólio das pequenas empresas para as ações das grandes multinacionais que dominam o benchmark, garantindo assim a vantagem.
Quando janeiro chega, no entanto, o relógio do bónus reinicia, e a sua vontade de assumir riscos será maior do que em qualquer outro momento do ano.
Este apetite por risco traduz-se numa preferência por ações de pequena capitalização na primeira metade do ano.
Esta teoria faz bastante sentido se olharmos para os retornos passados.
Repare como o desempenho relativo das pequenas empresas em relação às big caps, em média, tende a ser superior no início do ano e pior no final.
Pois bem, instigado por esta constatação, o Diogo foi à procura da próxima pequena empresa que pode beneficiar deste fenómeno.
Nós aqui já sabemos qual é.
E dentro de dois dias o leitor também poderá saber. Para isso, basta clicar aqui.
Abraço,
Pedro Gonçalves
:. Passe de mágica
:. Vida de ressacado
:. O problema da escalada das yields
:. Traduzindo em números
:. Ajustado à inflação
00:12 – Passe de mágica
As yields no mercado obrigacionista continuam em alta e, num passe de mágica, atingiram o nível mais alto dos últimos três anos.
O que vem comprovar qu,e em ambiente de bolsa, os movimentos são sempre mais vigorosos do que o sugerido pelo senso comum.
Neste momento, os investidores enfrentam um dilema.
Por um lado, o crescimento mundial sincronizado está de volta.
Por outro, essa mesma retoma económica pode obrigar os principais bancos centrais do mundo a apertarem a política monetária mais cedo do que se pensava anteriormente.
01:22 – Vida de ressacado
Com o mercado viciado em morfina monetária, qualquer indício sobre uma redução de estímulos provoca uma ressaca de proporções alarmantes.
As bolsas asiáticas sofreram um banho de sangue, com o Nikkei a derreter 2,5% – a maior queda diária dos últimos 15 meses.
Por aqui, o cenário também não é animador e as principais praças da região seguem a negociar no vermelho.
Em Wall Street, os futuros apontam para uma abertura em baixa, sinal de que o pior sell-off desde o início de janeiro de 2016 pode não ficar por aqui.
Leitura Recomendada
O investimento que o vai transformar em milionário
Descubra aqui aquelas pequenas ações que hoje estão ridiculamente baratas, mas que carregam consigo um alto potencial de explosão em pouquíssimo tempo, e multiplique o seu dinheiro sem paralelo.
02:03 – O problema da escalada das yields
O que é que isto significa?
Como já discutimos anteriormente, qualquer que seja a razão – e uma economia global mais robusta é uma coisa boa – a escalada das yields é uma situação “problemática”.
Durante vários anos, argumentámos que os efeitos da política monetária não tinham causado um grande impacto na economia “real”.
Com efeito, os grandes beneficiados durante este período, foram os ativos financeiros que atingiram all-time highs.
No entanto, a situação parece estar a mudar…
Leitura Recomendada
Habemus recomendação
Dia 6 de fevereiro vamos indicar-lhe uma recomendação explosiva que vai fazer com que comece o ano a ganhar muito dinheiro. Um investimento bem feito, na hora certa, pode mudar tudo.
03:10 – Traduzindo em números
Aqui está um resumo muito simples do problema:
Suponha que o seu depósito a prazo lhe paga 0% de juros. Agora diga-me: quanto é que um portfólio de ações precisaria render-lhe para o persuadir?
E quanto a uma carteira de títulos do tesouro? E que renda é que exigiria do seu imóvel?
Tem um número na cabeça? (Não há uma resposta correta).
Agora imagine que o seu banco aumenta o juro dos DPs para 5%. Neste caso, o retorno nestes outros ativos mais arriscados precisa ser maior ou menor para tentá-lo a investir?
Há uma resposta correta a esta pergunta e é, claro, precisa ser maior. Bem maior…
04:09 – Ajustado à inflação
Sendo assim, existem duas formas para o mercado ajustar.
Ou o preço dos ativos financeiros, simplesmente, cai pela metade – ninguém gostaria deste desfecho…
Ou – este é caminho menos revoltoso – o preço dos ativos permanece estático, mas o retorno duplica…
Claro que para isso acontecer, a inflação terá de disparar para níveis que não vemos há vários anos.
Suspeito inclusive que este é o objetivo final das autoridades monetárias.
A queda dos preços dos ativos provocaria um rombo no balanço dos bancos e assustaria os investidores, o que naturalmente teria um impacto negativo na economia.
Muito melhor (pelo menos, por enquanto) será deixar a inflação subir rapidamente e diminuir o preço dos ativos em termos “reais”, mas não em valores nominais.
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