View from the International Man office, today.
Joel Bowman, writing today from La Condesa, Mexico City…
It’s Bread & Circus season here in Mexico. That means World Cup football (soccer) and presidential elections … just the things to distract the general population from all that really matters in this life.
(We refer, of course, to things like peace… freedom… civil liberties… al pastor tacos… et cetera… )
Alas, our amigos have not fared well in either arena of late, political nor sporting. Too bad. Given the horrible job this nation’s public relations team has done in the past few years, we thought the Mexicans deserved a bit of a break. And yet…
Over the weekend, voters inflicted upon themselves a populist, hard-left president in the bodily shape of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or “Amlo” for short. Markets here sold off, but only by a little. Same for the Mexican peso. There’s plenty of ruin in a nation, as the saying goes.
Meanwhile, the local newspapers hailed Amlo’s victory as a “landslide,” which seems an appropriate enough analogy to us. Whether natural or man-made, disasters are a sad fact of life.
The president-elect, who spared the country his victory in both the 2006 and 2012 elections, ran his latest campaign on the promise to tackle what he cannily identified as the “evil of corruption.”
As far as we know, the campaign was not consciously satirical.
It is indeed a topsy-turvy world we live in, dear reader, where the task of cracking down on corruption is laid at the feet of the political class. What next? Drunks spearheading the temperance movement? Police speaking out against excessive use of force? TSA officers giving lectures about personal space?
Politics, as history has been at great pains to point out, is built on a foundation of corruption. The state is violence, both implied and enforced. A politician can no more stamp out corruption than he can make his own job obsolete.
Still, life goes on as usual … except, that is, for the Mexican football team. As the final votes were tallied Monday morning, as the concession speeches were prepared, Brazil drove home a second goal in the 88th minute, thereby ejecting the scrappy Mexicans from this year’s grandest circus event.
“Ay, ay, ay, ay,” as they say down here, “canta y no llores.” (Ay, ay, ay, ay. Sing and don’t cry.)
In today’s feature article, below the brief advertisement, your newly-appointed editor sat down with long time friend and now colleague, Doug Casey, to begin what we hope you will find to be an enjoyable, useful conversation. If you’d like to drop us a line—comments, complaints, grievances real and imagined—the gates of communication are open, here: CONTACT US
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Seeking Anarchy in South America
An Interview with Doug Casey and Joel Bowman
Joel Bowman: Before we get started today, I’d like to say thanks for inviting me onto the International Man team. I’ve long been a fan of your thinking, so it’s really a pleasure to be involved in this project with you.
Doug Casey: The feeling is mutual, Joel. I suspect we may be among a small number of genetic mutants that intuitively believe in a maximum of intellectual, social, and economic freedom. Hopefully that describes many of our readers as well.
Joel: Indeed. So the last time you and I shook hands was down in Punta del Este, in Uruguay, about a year ago. I recall having a conversation about where in the world a decent, morally sound individual might pass his days in peace, unfettered and unmolested by the local tin badge brigade of government busybodies.
Since then, I’ve moved from Buenos Aires to Mexico City and you’ve moved – at least part time – from the beach to a ranch a few miles in from the coast of Uruguay. Am I to take it that that’s your answer to the question? Is Uruguay your Shangri-La?
Doug: No. It’s not. In fact, there’s no one country that checks all the boxes. As for Uruguay, it’s a backward little socialist country. When I first went to Uruguay in 1980, I took a ferry across the Plate River from Buenos Aires. Incidentally, it was the first time I’d been to Argentina too. When I was in Argentina, I felt like I was stepping back into the 1950s. Then, when I went across the river to Uruguay, I felt like I was stepping back into the 1930s. And, it’s still in a time warp in many ways—although they’ve finally discarded the old bakelite rotary phones that you had to wait a year to have installed. They still charge gigantic taxes—often 100%—on cars. But most of them are no longer mobile museum pieces.
Uruguay was one of the first socialist countries in the world. It’s completely captured by labor unions, and it’s strangled by taxes—like a 22% VAT—bureaucracy, and regulations. It used to be called the Switzerland of Latin America, but now banking secrecy is totally dead here. The financial business used to be significant. But now it simply no longer exists.
Joel: Sounds like they killed the golden goose.…
Doug: Financial freedom has been in decline all over the world for decades. Uruguay was, typically, behind the times that way. But about ten years ago they elected a bunch of ex-student revolutionaries from the 1960’s, and they’re catching up with the socialists in Europe. In fact, they’re killing a lot of their golden geese. Being a financial haven and a tax haven was very good for the country; it brought in lots of badly needed foreign capital. But to show you how degraded the country has become, about five years ago they had a national plebiscite in which the voters decided to introduce an income tax. There was no income tax in Uruguay before then. Why did they do it? Because they were told only the rich people would pay, which gives you an insight into the average Uruguayan’s mentality. Well, we know what’s going to happen from here. It’ll keep creeping up until the state is extorting everyone. That’s how these things go. For instance, when the US got its income tax in 1913, the maximum bracket was 7%, and that only kicked in at the equivalent of about $15 million.
Of course, they only tax you on domestic income, which is one reason why it’s still a desirable place for an expat. But I certainly wouldn’t try to do any business here – it’s practically impossible to run a business in Uruguay, except perhaps in farming. But they’re working on destroying the farming industry, too … just as the government is working on destroying the real estate industry.
Real estate taxes are already quite high and there’s no longer much reason to have an apartment in Punta del Este. It used to be that Argentines, Brazilians, and other Latins would buy property here as a safe way to hide money abroad. But that game has come to an end with the elimination of financial privacy. Property prices are still high, but in a steady decline.
So what’s the attraction about Uruguay? It’s quiet, it’s peaceful. And, perhaps surprisingly, religion is barely an element in the culture. Along with Argentina, it’s the most culturally and demographically European country in the Western Hemisphere. There’s very little crime, and what crime there is tends to be non-violent.
Why do I spend time in Uruguay? Basically because it’s just across the river from Argentina, which is far more sophisticated, interesting and dynamic. As you know, it’s unwise to have all your eggs in any one South American basket. Or any one North American basket, for that matter.
Joel: As for the rest of that South American basket, is there any other place that appeals to you?
Get a signed hardcover copy of Doug and John’s novel DRUG LORDhere. It’s the only place other than a conference to get the signed hardcover.
Doug: I’ve been to every country on the continent numerous times, including the three Guianas—although they’re actually best considered part of the Caribbean.
Well, let’s see… You simply have to rule out Bolivia, certainly with its current regime. It’s genuinely backward, and it’s becoming an epicenter of racial warfare between the Europeans and the indigenous peoples. After all, it’s only been 500 years since the Spanish conquered the Incas…
Paraguay is too isolated and the climate is beastly. Its endemic corruption is a double-edged sword—long story.
I rule out Chile because, while, along with Uruguay, it’s the least corrupt country in South America, it’s a very conservative society, and probably the most religious in the hemisphere. It’s basically a long, thin island, with the Andes on the east, the ocean on the west, and the desert to the north. It’s beautiful, yes. And since Pinochet it’s become quite economically and technologically advanced. But it’s very provincial, and the people love their military, the police, and the church.
Joel: So, you’re not a fan of the police state? But Doug, it’s soen vogue these days…
Doug: That seems to be the case in an increasing number of countries; I’m looking for a place moving in the opposite direction. But back to Latin America: Ecuador and Peru both suffer from simmering racial tensions, similar to Bolivia. We can forget about Venezuela until they get rid of Maduro—and even then they’re still going to have huge problems for a number of reasons. Colombia, their next door neighbor, is quite interesting, however. It still suffers from a bad reputation stemming from about 50 years of civil wars and drug wars, but it’s turned around. It’s a real possibility—and the cost of living is low.
I haven’t mentioned Brazil. Unfortunately for me, Brazil is Portuguese-speaking and, while I can get by well enough in Spanish, Portuguese is tough. But language is becoming less of a problem everywhere, with English as the world’s newlingua franca. I was in Sao Paulo last year to play in the Brazilian Series of Poker, and had no trouble. But Brazil has got a real crime problem, violent crime.
To me, the most desirable places to be are Argentina and Uruguay. I prefer Argentina in most ways, especially since the election of the Macri government a couple of years ago; there’s a chance he’ll even undo the bad effects of Peronism that have hobbled the place for the last 70 years. As for Uruguay the cost of living is quite high but, increasingly, you can get some bargains in real estate. That’s basically all they do here; sell real estate and export soybeans. And who knows? Maybe magic will happen, they’ll like what’s happening in Argentina, and elect a non-socialist government next time…
Joel: That reminds me of my own experience living in Buenos Aires. People who knew me would say, “Hey, you call yourself an anarcho-capitalist, and here you are living in a card-carrying Marxist nation-state,” Argentina being, at the time, under the iron-fist of the Kirchneristas.
Of course, there’s an enormous divide between the public and private spheres of any society and so, while the Argentine state was doing everything in its power to destroy value and crush innovation, the private citizens were among the warmest, most generous people I’ve met. My daily coexistence with them was pleasurable and harmonious. Plus, they harbor a healthy distrust for their government, unlike other places I’ve lived where the population kneels at the feet of their statist idols and worships at the altar of the civic religion.
Doug: That’s a very good point. And something else that speaks well for Argentina as opposed to Uruguay. The Argentines really don’t trust their police, their military, their politicians or the state in general. While the Uruguayans have a culture of thinking the state is their daddy. In addition to all that, it’s much easier to become an Argentine citizen than it is to become an Uruguayan citizen. It only takes two years of living there six months per year. In Uruguay it’s much more complicated. But they’re both good passports, with visa-free travel to around 145 countries.
There’s so much more to be said about all these countries in Latin America. I feel a bit chagrined summing them up in a few sentences each. But I’m sure we’ll go into a lot more detail in the future about the other 200 countries on this planet. And spot more than a few ways to profit from what’s going on…
Joel: I look forward to the conversation evolving over the coming weeks and months. Much to discuss. Thanks for taking the time today, Doug.
Doug: Good talking, Joel. ‘til next time.
Joel’s Note: One of the many pleasures in talking with Doug is that you know you can always count on a straight answer. No mealy-mouthed nonsense. No beating around the bush. And, certainly, no “political correctness.”
In life, as in investing, Doug has no problem going right to the heart of the matter. It’s no surprise, then, that in addition to being a true International Man, Doug also boasts one of the very best track records when it comes to investing. Whether it’s speculating on junior miners… getting out ahead of the pot bonanza, or making a mint on crypto currencies, Doug has been at the forefront of some of the biggest, most profitable trends in modern times.
If you’re interested in learning more about Doug’s no-nonsense approach to investing (and to life), we highly recommend you take a leaf out of his new book. In fact, you can grab a copy of one right here. It’s free when you sign up for a trial run of his best-selling investment newsletter. Check them both out, here.
From Abroad,
23 de junho de 2018

Nota do editor: Nesta semana, o George Chen deu um alerta importantíssimo sobre a rápida valorização do dólar, na newsletterWarm Up PRO. Você leu? Se não, confira abaixo o seu aviso e uma indicação para aproveitar o momento e lucrar da forma correta com a moeda americana. Um abraço, André Zara.

 

 

Olá.

Tenho razões para acreditar que a tendência do dólar é de valorização. Entre os principais pontos que suportam a minha perspectiva, destaco:

1) Agravamento das incertezas domésticas (indecisão política, eleições, desdobramentos da greve dos caminhoneiros e lenta recuperação econômica);

2) Corte excessivo na taxa de juros do Brasil, atingindo o menor nível histórico;

3) Tendência de elevação da taxa de juros nos EUA, após um longo período de recuperação econômica, iniciado após a crise do subprime (2008);

4) Afrouxamento na concessão americana de crédito, evidenciando que o FED (Banco Central dos EUA) vai precisar elevar ainda mais os juros para conter a inflação no país.

Com esse cenário traçado, pensamos em estratégias para nos beneficiarmos do movimento.

Um membro da nossa equipe tem um plano para aproveitar o momento, pois acaba de identificar que o dólar pode chegar a 7,30 reais.

Segundo a estratégia dele, você poderia até dobrar seu dinheiro agorainvestindo no dólar.

Confira aqui como isso é possível.

Um abraço,

George Chen

https://cursos.infomoney.com.br/workshop_hedge-explosivo-eleicoes?utm_campaign=Mestre_dos_Derivativos&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=64035831

Terceira guerra mundial

Lisboa, Portugal 16/04/18
por Pedro Gonçalves

:. WW3

:. Missão cumprida

:. Época de resultados

:. Crescimento mundial sincronizado

:. Duas leituras possíveis

00:12 – WW3

Ninguém acreditava (seriamente) que a Terceira Guerra Mundial pudesse começar este fim de semana…

Fonte: CNN

No entanto, é impossível ignorar que o escalonamento das forças que apoiam e condenam o ataque parece saído de um filme de Hollywood.

Por ora, felizmente, existe alguma esperança que as hostilidades possam ficar por aqui.

01:03 – Missão cumprida

Resumindo: as forças aliadas dispararam 105 mísseis que visavam destruir três alvos específicos, onde os militares de Assad alegadamente produziram e guardaram as armas químicas usadas no dia 7 de abril em Douma, e Trump declarou: mission acomplished.

Sendo assim, o mercado volta a acreditar que, desde que os ataques aéreos não desemboquem numa intervenção militar direta, os russos não vão retaliar…

Veremos.

02:02 – Época de resultados

No exterior, as bolsas apresentam algum otimismo, ajustando-se aos ganhos importantes dos últimos dias e acompanhando a queda verificada no mercado das commodities.

Olhando para o futuro, a temporada de resultados volta a meter uma abaixo e esta semana aguardamos mais divulgações importantes…

No cômputo geral, a Thomson Reuters estima que os lucros das empresas S&P 500 tenham aumentando 18,6% no primeiro trimestre em relação há um ano – o maior aumento dos últimos sete anos.

Vale a pena lembrar que, com as expectativas tão altas, a probabilidade de surpresas negativas aumenta. Por isso, recomendamos muita cautela.

03:10 – Crescimento mundial sincronizado

A China, a segunda maior economia do mundo, irá divulgar a taxa de crescimento do PIB para o primeiro trimestre amanhã, com as previsões de mercado agrupadas em torno de um crescimento de 6,7%, a 6,8%.

Se confirmar este ritmo, a China conseguiu manter o seu ímpeto de crescimento a partir do final do ano passado, mesmo com os investidores preocupados com o risco de uma guerra comercial.

Este tipo de dados tende a ter pouco impacto no mercado, mas não deixa de ser um argumento em prol da narrativa de “crescimento mundial sincronizado”.

04:13 – Duas leituras possíveis

Por aqui, destaque para o Orçamento de Estado de 2018 onde a palavra de ordem foi prudência.

Depois de muita conversa de bastidores, Centeno deixou as contas públicas blindadas contra derrapagens na atividade económica, apesar dos apelos da esquerda para aumentar o gasto público…

Sendo assim, e caso não hajam surpresas negativas, o Estado muito dificilmente não atingirá as metas orçamentais.

Temos, assim, duas leituras possíveis:

De um lado, são boas notícias para a economia e a estabilidade financeira.

Por outro, continuamos à espera de reformas estruturais.

Meses atrás, defendi que o terceiro grande bull market do ouro a acontecer durante minha vida começou em dezembro de 2015. Na época, o preço do metal caiu a US$ 1.050 por onça, uma queda de 50% em relação à máxima e US$ 1.900 por onça, atingida em agosto de 2011 (tomando como base o preço de 1999: US$ 250/onça). O primeiro bull market ocorreu entre 1971 e 1980, quando o ouro subiu mais de 2.000%. O segundo, entre 1999 e 2011, período em que o preço do metal teve um aumento de mais de 700%. Até agora, neste terceiro bull market, o ouro subiu mais de 25%, e essa nova tendência de alta ainda tem muito chão pela frente. Pontos de inflexão de bull e bear markets de longo prazo nem sempre são aparentes no momento em que ocorrem. Preços baixos podem cair ainda mais, mesmo após uma recuperação. Por isso, pareceu sensato procurar evidências de que o preço de dezembro de 2015 era realmente a mínima. Tais provas vieram quando o metal subiu em 2016 e 2017, a primeira sequência de aumentos em anos consecutivos nos seus preços desde o período entre 2011 e 2012 (embora, na época, o ouro já estivesse abaixo da máxima intra-anual de agosto de 2011).

Há uma nova alta em 2018, considerando o acumulado do ano. Obviamente, a volatilidade do mercado continua, com ralis e drawdowns em intervalos de poucas semanas, mas a tendência de alta parece sólida em seu terceiro ano consecutivo. Este artigo oferece um resumo dos motivos do recente fortalecimento do ouro, dentre eles, a procura de portos-seguros por conta do recrudescimento das guerras comerciais e o
aumento das tensões políticas com a Coreia do Norte e com o Irã. Entre as razões do rali, também estão a forte demanda por ouro físico por parte da Rússia e da China e restrições de fornecimento pela comunidade de mineração, decorrentes do fechamento de minas e da redução da exploração após o colapso dos preços em 2013. Os americanos ainda não estão participando da festa. As vendas de moedas de ouro e de prata da Casa da Moeda dos Estados Unidos estão praticamente paradas. O resto do mundo, porém, desde Turquia a Irã e Coreia do Norte, está comprando o mais rápido que pode, como proteção contra a perda de confiança no dólar americano e contra as sanções econômicas dos EUA. O metal apresentou um forte desempenho frente aos obstáculos financeiros colocados pelas altas dos juros e reduções do balanço feitos pelo Fed. Esses ventos contrários se tornarão favoráveis no fim deste ano, quando o Fed perceber que exagerou no aperto monetário e for obrigado a reverter seu curso.

Quando chegar esse momento, o ouro vai disparar. Este pode ser o último excelente ponto de entrada no ouro, antes que o novo bull market realmente ganhe fôlego.

China’s Most Powerful Weapon in the Coming Trade War

by Nick Giambruno | February 22, 2018
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“When any market is down 90%, you’re obligated to go and investigate.”

That’s what Doug Casey often says. And it’s part of the reason I put my boots on the ground in China a few months ago.

As I told you yesterday, the country has a monopoly on a little-known resource market. For years, stocks in this sector only went down. The industry was left for dead… until recently.

The last time this happened, the price of this resource skyrocketed over 10 times almost overnight.

And, as I’ll show in a moment, I think there’s a strong chance a similar mania will start soon…

China’s Monopoly

Most people have never heard of the material China controls. But it’s essential to modern life.

It’s used to make crucial components for advanced electronics like iPhones, electric cars, flat-screen TVs, computers, and sophisticated military equipment—like guidance systems, drones, anti-missile systems, radars, and fighter jets.

The United States’ top-line fighter jet, the F-35, contains nearly 450 kilograms of this material.

There’s no substitute for this resource in these advanced electronics. The US military and US consumer depend on it.

The problem is that finding this material isn’t cheap. And once you find it, mining it is expensive and messy. It takes about 40 tonnes of rock (40,000 kilograms) to get only about 250 kilograms of this valuable material.

The costs are even higher if you separate the material from the ore in an environmentally friendly way.

But China is willing to do the dirty work.

Beijing helps by subsidizing the industry. Meanwhile, many companies in other countries—operating without hefty state subsidies—go bankrupt.

Plus, China doesn’t fret about the environmental fallout as much as other countries. This lets it produce the material at a much lower cost than its competitors.

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CIA director Mike Pompeo admits, it’s “a very real concern.”

But there’s one way America could fight back. And it gives patriotic Americans a quick opportunity to capture 1,127% gains in months. Click here for the full story.

Until recently, one company in the US still produced a small amount of this material. Then, after a spat with a neighboring country, China flooded the market with supply. This oversupply drove the last US company out of business.

According to a US Congressional report:

[China] flooded the market by more than tripling the previous world supply of the materials. During this time, [Chinese firms] were largely unprofitable but were allowed to survive through direct and indirect support by the Chinese government.

This backing enabled [China’s industry] to continue to mine and export these materials at prices far below the actual costs of production…

Mines in the United States and elsewhere, unable to remain profitable against cheap Chinese exports, went out of business.

This is how China undercut everyone else and came to dominate the industry. Today, China produces around 90% of global supplies of this material.

In short, no one poses a serious threat to China’s monopoly. China can simply hold prices lower for longer than any competitor can stay solvent.

This unchallenged monopoly could quickly become a huge problem for the US. But the US government won’t just sit on its hands…

The US-China Trade War Is Heating Up

Regular readers know I think a full-blown trade war between the US and China is imminent. And we’ve already heard the opening shot.

Let me explain…

Early on in his presidency, Donald Trump indicated that he wouldn’t handle China like the previous US presidents.

In January 2017, he became the first president in 40 years to speak with the leader of Taiwan, an island off the coast of China that Beijing considers a renegade province.

Even during the campaign, Trump famously threatened a 45% tariff on Chinese goods entering the US.

He also said China was sucking “the blood out of the United States” and “we can’t continue to allow China to rape our country, and that’s what they’re doing.”

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Getting tough with China on trade is a campaign promise Trump can actually keep. He doesn’t need anyone’s cooperation. Legally, he can implement the necessary policies on his own.

And last summer, Trump fired the first shot in the trade war.

His administration launched an investigation against China using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

This rarely used provision allows Trump to “take all appropriate action… to obtain removal of any [trade] practice that is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.”

The Chinese considered this a provocative move. Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) was founded in 1995, member countries—including China and the US—have traditionally settled trade disputes through it.

But Trump, using the Section 301 investigation, is taking a one-sided approach.

China’s Not-So-Secret Weapon

As I mentioned yesterday, China has a big card to play now. It could easily restrict supplies of the special material again.

That would bring any country—including the US—to its knees.

This isn’t some wild speculation. Remember, China didn’t hesitate to restrict supplies in the past.

Plus, if it restricts supplies again, I think the WTO will give its blessing. That’s because China’s move would probably be in response to one-sided US trade penalties—something Trump has already shown he’s willing to implement.

There’s no way around it. The Chinese are ready to use their monopoly in this market. It’s their ultimate weapon in the trade war with the US.

The good news for investors is that we can use this crisis to make huge profits.

Prices of this special resource are still near their lows for this cycle. So before tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate further, we can buy a dollar’s worth of assets for a dime or less.

This way, we’ll be positioned to profit before the war heats up and the next mania kicks in.

Until next time,


Nick Giambruno
Senior Editor, International Man

P.S. My team just released a brand-new video presentation with more details on the conflict… and several ways you can position yourself to profit today. It includes background details on the one tiny company I think will soar in the coming months… potentially handing investors as much as 10 times their money. Watch it right here.

The US vs. China: A Study in Opposites

by Jeff Thomas | February 24, 2018
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In the first photo, taken in 1972, US President Richard Nixon made what was then considered a bold move, visiting Mao Zedong in Communist China. Literally, as well as figuratively, Chairman Mao is on the left and Mr. Nixon is on the right.

In the second photo, taken over forty years later, we have US President Barack Obama making a similar visit to China. This time, again literally as well as figuratively, Mr. Obama is on the left and Chinese President Xi Jinping is on the right.

Over the ensuing four decades, both countries have been changing dramatically. The US has become increasingly socialistic, more focused on Big Government and more of a totalitarian state. In 1972, it was the world’s foremost creditor nation; it is now the world’s foremost debtor nation. By contrast, China, since the death of Chairman Mao, has opened up considerably, with billions of people becoming upwardly mobile, in response to China becoming increasingly capitalistic.

To be sure, both countries retain some of their historical features, but increasingly, the US is acting like a country in decline, whilst China is acting like a country on the rise.

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That’s when Donald Trump could issue “Section 301” trade sanctions on China – the first since Reagan was in office. And Beijing is furious…

Click here to see what this crisis is really about, and the name of the tiny company caught in the middle.

As a result of successful capitalism, the US became the world’s foremost power after World War II. Then, in the 1960s, the US began apologising for the spoils that came with that capitalism. It became increasingly popular for Americans (largely at the urging of the media and the political structure) to be ashamed of capitalistic achievements and to head in a more socialistic direction.

Republican politicians have needed to soften their views on capitalism in order to appear to be “good people.” (“Good people” has essentially come to mean “those who are prepared to take from the rich and give to the poor.”) They are now Republicans in name only. The US still has two major parties, but one is a moderately liberal party and the other is a vehemently liberal party.

China has gone in the opposite direction, becoming increasingly capitalistic. The results have been dramatic. Many Chinese now have all the trappings that Americans do. In addition, their government is expanding more each year into capitalism.

Again, these developments have followed along the lines of “Declining Empire” vs. “Burgeoning Empire.” Increasingly, the US approach to the world has become one of demanding that other countries subjugate themselves to the US, as though they are subsidiaries of the empire. The US has demanded that trade in many essentials (particularly energy) be settled in the US dollar.

As this relationship has been crumbling in recent years, the US has responded by threatening other countries, creating sanctions against them, and even invading them. In doing so, the US has earned the reputation as the schoolyard bully of the world—the country that the world loves to hate. They still have to play ball with the US, but the resentment is growing globally.

(It should be noted here that, if and when a schoolyard bully does fall from his position, he is stomped on, not only by his challenger, but also by those who resented and hated him but had previously deferred to him and pretended to befriend him. Similarly, when empires fall from grace, “staunch allies” frequently switch sides rather quickly.)

In contrast to the US, the Chinese have, in recent decades, displayed the sort of capitalism that is indicative of a burgeoning global player. They are, in effect, saying, “We’re open for business and we’re here to deal. We have some creative ideas to offer that we think you’ll welcome.” They’re not twisting arms behind backs. They’re offering creative opportunities for other countries.

In addition, they’re not aiming for immediate gratification. Their aim is for long-term benefits, just as US goals once were. Today, the Chinese are buying up properties on every continent, setting up businesses, and making sure that the locals benefit from their investments.

In addition, they’re creating deals with governments that those governments could not create on their own. They seek out a country like Venezuela that is on the ropes economically and offer to buy heavily into Venezuela’s primary asset—oil—to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. The deal is not intended to provide a major return for China in the short term, but it does place China in the economic catbird seat in Venezuela over the long haul.

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Around the globe, state-backed Chinese developers are offering creative deals to other countries’ political leaders. For example, if a small nation needs, say, a new port and the port costs $50 million (an amount that the country does not have), the Chinese offer to build the port for, say, $30 million, a bid that no other developer can meet. The Chinese developer takes a loss on the construction, but a part of the deal is that he gets a significant portion of the income of the port for, say, 50 or 75 years.

Chinese developers are now executing such deals in nearly every country in the world. What they lose in profits upon completion is made up for in long-term income. As a bonus, China not only owns property worldwide, it is a shareholder in the economies of countries worldwide.

This rapidly expanding global Chinese capitalism is receiving little notice in the US media, but that, most certainly, will change. As the US reaches its own economic tipping point—market crashes, currency collapse, etc.—and finds that it can no longer pay even the interest on its debt, it will also discover that it cannot pay out the benefits promised to the 50% of its population who pay no income tax but are recipients of governmental largesse. The US government will then find itself desperately trying to keep this portion of the population at bay, as payouts to recipients decrease. As a result, governmental capital projects will fail to receive funding. Someone will need to step in and offer “creative bidding.” Enter the Chinese.

Once the US is on more of a Third-World economic footing, it will have little choice but to accept the kinds of deals that the Chinese have recently offered in Jamaica, Egypt, Nicaragua, etc.

The result will be Chinese ownership not only of considerable US real estate and corporations within the US, but ownership of US infrastructure.

Today, the vestiges of Communism undoubtedly remain in China, but the move is decidedly away from Communism, toward capitalism. Conversely, the US seems to be hell-bent on replacing US capitalism with a socialist totalitarian state. Since more than 50% of Americans are now on the dole in some form, it seems highly unlikely that the US will suddenly reverse that direction, since the majority of Americans will vote for continued (and increased) government hand-outs.

Both Chairman Mao and President Nixon are now pushing up daisies, and their present-day replacements are reverse images of them. The future belongs to those who are productive.

As investment guru Jim Rogers has stated, the future belonged to the British in the 19th century and the Americans in the 20th century. The Chinese will own the 21st century. Accordingly, Mr. Rogers made Singapore his home.

We are passing through the early stages of a period of dramatic change. The economic and political world is in the process of turning upside down. Those who come out the other side of this change with their skin on will be those who have diversified both their wealth (however large or small) and, indeed, themselves, so that they are positioned to thrive in the future, rather than to remain where they are and be a part of the decline.

Regards,

Jeff Thomas

Editor’s Note: Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can do to change the trajectory of this trend in motion. The best you can do is stay informed so you can protect yourself… and even profit.

We just released a brand-new video presentation with details on China’s latest move…and the one group of stocks that could soar higher

Plus, if you’re considering diversifying internationally, watch your inbox on Monday. Jeff will share specific actions you can take when looking for a second home abroad.

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What is the greatest secret in all of investing?

What really separates amateurs from professionals?

Losers from winners?

If you search the internet, you’ll find dozens of people with dozens of answers to this question. Some will say the secret is their proprietary trading system. Some will say it’s their method of picking stocks.

I’m sure some of those ideas are useful. But they’re not nearly as useful as something I call “the most powerful wealth-building secret in investing.”

Master this skill and you’ll consistently spot opportunities to make five or 10 times your money on safe investments.

I know that’s counter to the conventional investment wisdom that says you have to take big risks to make big returns.

Well, after learning this secret, you’ll know that you most certainly do not have to take big risks to make big returns. You’ll know most people have it backwards. You simply have to know how to apply this one skill.

It’s a skill that helped make Warren Buffett one of the richest men in the world. A skill that helped make Casey Research founder Doug Casey millions of dollars in the stock market. And a skill that made Sir John Templeton a rich man and one of the most respected investors of all time.

I’ll tell you what this skill is in a moment. First, I want to show you three real examples of how it has made investors rich.

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The Casey Secret: The ONE tactic Doug Casey used to stack up million-dollar fortune after fortune over the past 4 decades…

Doug Casey’s built a reputation as a legendary speculator.

He’s played everything from gold and silver penny stocks to international real estate to tiny uranium miners… and – more recently, cryptocurrencies and marijuana stocks… but there’s one tactic that threads through every one of his huge winning plays.

Here it is…

• In 1939, legendary investor John Templeton made a fortune betting against the crowd…

At the time, millions of Americans were in poverty due to the Great Depression. And Nazi Germany had just invaded Poland to kick off World War II.

There was an incredible amount of fear in the world. But Templeton, a recent college grad, invested $10,000 in U.S. stocks. That’s the equivalent of $167,000 today.

Amazingly, Templeton didn’t even study which companies to buy. He didn’t need to. He knew that the extreme fear in the world had pushed U.S. stocks down to ridiculously cheap prices. So, he simply bought any stock selling for less than $1 on the New York and American stock exchanges.

Four years later, Templeton sold his portfolio for a 300% gain. Today, he’s known as the greatest stock picker of the last century.

• In 2008, iconic U.S. bank Lehman Brothers failed…

It was the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history. U.S. stocks crashed more than 50%… the biggest crash since the Great Depression. And the stock prices of many great businesses dropped 80% or more.

People were terrified of losing everything: their jobs, their houses, their life savings. There was an incredible amount of fear in the markets.

But the fear was masking an incredible opportunity…

It was the best time to buy quality stocks in 30 years.

Investors who purchased quality stocks in late 2008 made a killing.

For example, an investor who bought stock in coffee chain Starbucks in late 2008 made more than 1,900% on his money. An investor who bought technology company Apple made as much as 966%. Ford Motor Company’s stock gained more than 1,200% in just over two years after the financial crisis.

The list goes on. Many quality companies gained at least 10x in less than two years from February 2009, including Ruby Tuesday (+1,072%), Crocs (+1,347%), La-Z-Boy (+1,016%) and Gulfport Energy (+1,227%).

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This has got to be one of the most interesting stories I’ve read in years…
What do the Vatican, U.S. Army, and gold all have in common? A PhD geologist named Keith Barron has found an unusual connection between all three… and it could have a profound impact on your retirement.

Historical research spanning 20 years has led him to two lost “gold cities”—which could contain the largest gold deposit in the Americas. The last time Dr. Barron made a gold discovery, investors got rich to the tune of $1.2 billion.

Will lightning strike twice?

Take a few minutes to watch the full story and decide for yourself…

• In 2010, an oil rig named Deepwater Horizon exploded off the coast of Louisiana…

The blast instantly killed 11 workers and eventually spilled 4 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. It was the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history… and the biggest oil spill in world history.

The negative media coverage was nonstop. Newspapers ran pictures like this:

As partial owner of the oilrig, British oil giant BP became one of the most hated companies in the world.

In a matter of weeks, BP’s stock price collapsed from $59 to $27… for a stunning loss of value of $105 billion.

At that point, hardly anyone would touch BP stock… but smart investors asked, “Are BP’s assets really worth $105 billion less today than they were a month ago… or are investors overreacting?”

It turned out investors were overreacting. Buying BP stock near its bottom made an 80% gain in just a year. It also locked in a safe 6% (and growing) dividend yield.

• Although these stories of massive wealth creation are all very different, they have one thing in common…

They show the power of buying assets during times of maximum pessimism… when no one else wants to buy.

You see, from time to time, an extraordinary opportunity comes along to buy a dollar’s worth of assets for a dime.

If you can spot these opportunities, you can make gigantic returns without taking big risks.

After all, the gains we just discussed didn’t come from investing in speculative biotech stocks or tiny gold companies. Many of them came from just the opposite: iconic, blue-chip American companies that have been around for decades.

According to Wall Street, you must take big risks to earn big returns.

But these stories show that’s not true. Buying valuable assets for pennies on the dollar is one of the least-risky investments you can make.

Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers, and generations of Rothschilds got rich using this strategy.

I believe this is the most powerful wealth-building strategy available to anyone.

Amateur investors run from crisis. Great investors run toward it.

Until next time,


Nick Giambruno
Senior Editor, International Man

P.S. Last week, I joined legendary speculator Doug Casey and his longtime friend and colleague Bill Bonner in our first ever Legends of Finance Summit. During the summit, we discussed Bill’s bold “Trade of the Century” idea and the story behind six different ways to play it.

As regular readers know, I’m an extreme value hunter, searching for cheap, speculative penny stocks. And three of those six plays use my method. Learn more right here…

Caro leitor,

Não há como dar a volta à questão: o fecho da sessão desta sexta-feira confirmou a sexta semana de 2018 como uma das piores para os mercados nos últimos anos.

E todas as explicações que oiço parecem indicar que a culpa reside na baixa volatilidade e nas apostas de que esta continuaria reduzida ad infinitum.

Parece complexo? Calma… vamos por partes.

Deve ter notado que os mercados americanos têm estado bastante calmos nos últimos anos, certo?

O S&P 500 – índice que agrega as 500 maiores empresas americanas – tem subido tranquilamente nos últimos dois anos sem grandes repelões.

S&P 500 – Fonte: Bloomberg

Em bom português significa que os mercados não têm sido voláteis.

Como resultado, o índice VIX – que é uma medida de volatilidade – andava bastante deprimido.

VIX – Fonte: Bloomberg

Tão baixo que muitas pessoas acharam aliciante apostarem que a volatilidade continuaria pelas ruas da amargura.

É sabido que Wall Street sempre arranjou uma forma de fazer dinheiro à custa de uma tendência qualquer.

Antes de avançar com uma explicação um pouco mais técnica…

Pode saltar o que não entende, desde que entenda a ideia geral.

Repare que o VIX é calculado a partir do preço das opções sobre o S&P 500. Especificamente, todas as opções fora do dinheiro (calls e puts) tanto para o primeiro como para o segundo mês.

Em teoria, isto permite determinar a “volatilidade implícita” no mercado de derivados nos próximos 30 dias.

O que quero que compreenda é que o VIX é apenas um valor de índice e não um ativo em si mesmo. No fundo, é apenas uma medida de volatilidade.

Para negociar o VIX, os investidores precisarão comprar um ETF que acompanhe o seu desempenho. Também é possível negociar contratos de futuros diretamente. Estes são todos derivados, ou seja, apostas colocadas no desempenho de outros ativos.

Sendo assim, os investidores têm basicamente as seguintes formas de apostar na queda da vol:

Comprar ETFs que replicam a performance inversa do VIX.

Podem vender futuros… ou usar estratégias de investimento que funcionem apenas quando a volatilidade é estável ou está a cair.

E porque a volatilidade tem sido tão baixa, vários investidores continuaram a apostar que a tendência se manteria por um bom tempo…

Ao fazê-lo, o processo tornou-se reflexivo, deprimindo ainda mais a volatilidade.

O problema é que quando algo desperta o VIX, todas estas apostas funcionam como uma mola e toda esta força supressora explode num movimento imparável.

À primeira vista parece que foi isso que aconteceu.

A subida das yields e a quedas das ações assustaram o mercado…

E, de um momento para o outro, estas estratégias de “baixa volatilidade” começaram a stopar as suas posições, alimentando ainda mais o pânico.

Como resultado, o mercado acionista derreteu e, ironicamente, os títulos do tesouro americano – que tinha sido inicialmente o trigger para este susto – recuperaram quando os investidores fugiram das ações à procura do quentinho dos ativos refúgio.

Em defesa da sua carteira

Então e agora?

Bem, as pessoas que foram atingidas com mais força foram os investidores que apostavam que o VIX continuaria a cair indefinidamente….

Estes são os tipos de coisas que não recomendamos comprar porque são opacas, caras e estouram de um momento para o outro.

Então, sinceramente, espero que não detenha nenhum deles, porque a maioria transformou-se em pó…

A questão que se segue é: quantas outras apostas contra a volatilidade ainda precisam ser fechadas e que tipo de efeito isso pode ter no mercado em geral?

Ninguém sabe ao certo.

Contudo, a boa notícia, neste caso, é que o crash na bolsa parece ter sido impulsionado por fatores técnicos, em vez de um problema estritamente estrutural.

Isto não significa que as avaliações bolsistas não estejam caras (nos EUA, estão certamente).

E, claro, ninguém está a afirmar que o aumento das yields globais não vai ser um problema.

Mas, em contrapartida, não estamos em 2007 ou 2008.

A economia mundial está a crescer ao ritmo mais rápido da última década.

E, embora as questões estruturais causadas pelo aumento da volatilidade possam ter várias repercussões, não podem ser colocadas ao mesmo nível da crise do subprime.

Além disso, suspeito que ainda exista um forte sentimento de buy the dip no mercado.

Por último, se o mercado se assustar também teremos sempre os bancos centrais para salvar a festa. Claro que a inflação será sempre um entrave à utilização deste trunfo. Mas parece-me que desgraça particular ainda está um pouco mais adiante no futuro.

Então, o que deve fazer agora?

Aqui é onde o leitor explora sua watchlist – lista de ações que gostaria de comprar, mas que achava que estavam caras…

Quando as pessoas são forçadas a vender por falhas de mercado estranhas (como esta), é uma boa oportunidade para comprar bons ativos a preços decentes.

Boa caçada,

Pedro Gonçalves

Na semana que passou…

 

O que se passa com as criptomoedas?

Já reparou como as criptomoedas têm vindo a cair nas últimas semanas? Tratar-se-ão apenas de correções? Será que ainda têm potencial de valorização? Descubra tudo aqui.

 

Esta ação está prestes a explodir!

Ao longo de 2017 demos dezenas de recomendações de investimentos, mas nada como isto que temos agora à nossa frente. Tenha acesso à recomendação mais importante do ano aqui.

 

Não adianta chorar sobre leite derramado

Em traços gerais, acredito honestamente que esta correçãoresulta mais de um ajuste técnico depois de uma subida vertiginosa do que propriamente de uma alteração estrutural dos fundamentais.

This is not fiction…

It’s not a conspiracy theory…

It’s a plausible explanation for a mysterious event that actually happened.

On the evening of May 28, 1993, an enormous blast rocked the Australian Outback. It measured 3.9 on the Richter scale and sent shock waves out hundreds of miles. Truck drivers and gold prospectors in the area saw the dark sky light up with a bright flash.

I only heard about the incident last year, when Doug Casey and I met a shadowy figure with deep connections to the US government in a café in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

He and his colleagues within the US military and intelligence community were 100% convinced that this strange event was actually Aum Shinrikyo—a Japanese doomsday cult—testing a nuclear weapon.

If he was right, then it was the first time a non-state actor had ever detonated a nuclear bomb.

It was such an extraordinary claim that, at first, I didn’t even think it possible. No one I knew had ever heard of it. And I’d never seen it in the news, though I later discovered that outlets like The New York Times did cover it decades ago—buried somewhere in the back pages.

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LAST CHANCE: Legends of Finance Summit replay goes offline at midnight

If you missed the world premiere of the Summit last night – don’t worry! Because we’re airing an exclusive replay until midnight tonight.

Watch it and you’ll see the story behind 6 different ways to play Bill Bonner’s  Trade of the Century… PLUS, details on a special gift worth $8,000.

Watch it ASAP, though, because it all goes offline at midnight tonight

Aum Shinrikyo, which means Supreme Truth, is a religious movement that started in Japan in 1984. They believe in a doomsday prophecy where World War 3 ushers in a nuclear Armageddon. Of course, only their group survives, and they go on to rule the world.

Aum gained global notoriety in 1995 when it attacked the Tokyo subway system with sarin gas, a deadly nerve agent. The attack, which was meant to spark a Japanese civil war, killed 13 people and injured thousands. It was the first chemical weapons attack by a non-state actor.

The Tokyo subway attack surprised Japan and other world governments, and they rushed to learn more about the group.

It turns out Aum was not just a small group of vulnerable people with strange views. The cult had ballooned to over 50,000 converts in at least six countries and acquired over $1 billion in assets.

The US government learned that the cult had recruited at least two Russian nuclear scientists and tried to buy a Russian nuclear warhead.

As investigators unraveled Aum’s international web, they found it had purchased a 500,000-acre ranch at Banjawarn Station, about 400 miles northeast of Perth in remote Western Australia.

They discovered Aum had set up an advanced laboratory there, where it manufactured sarin gas and tested chemical weapons on sheep. There were known uranium deposits in the area, and Aum was mining them. (Uranium is a main ingredient for making atomic weapons.)

But what disturbed and puzzled them the most was that Aum’s ranch was in the exact same area as the mysterious 1993 explosion.

Investigators calculated that the explosion had the force of 2,000 tons of high explosives, or that of a small nuclear device. For perspective, the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima had the force of around 15,000 tons of high explosives.

The bizarre blast happened two years before the Tokyo subway attack. At the time, Aum wasn’t really on anyone’s radar. Most people simply wrote it off as a strange explosion in the middle of nowhere. No one really thought much of it, until they connected the dots years later…

Investigators feared that Aum had somehow acquired and tested a massive weapon—possibly the ultimate weapon. After all, they’d successfully recruited at least two Russian nuclear scientists to their cult. And they’d tried to buy nuclear weapons.

Investigators hoped they could rule out Aum by proving the blast was something else—an earthquake, a mining explosion, or possibly a meteor.

Instead, they found themselves ruling out all the possibilities they had hoped to prove.

It’s highly unlikely the blast was a mining explosion. The detonation was over 170 times more powerful than the biggest mining explosion ever recorded in Australia up until then.

The blast was consistent with a meteor strike… except for one key element: With an explosion of that force, they’d expect to find an enormous crater with a diameter of at least three football fields. They never found a crater.

Earthquakes are rare in the region. And it wouldn’t explain the loud noise or bright flash on a pitch-black night in the Australian Outback.

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Could one single stock fuel your entire retirement? This one might… A tiny $50 million company is poised to make a historic discovery… a gold stash worth up to $19.8 billion!

The man in charge landed previous “gold windfalls” worth over $1 billion… turning 30 of his backers into millionaires! But that could be nothing when compared to this… For all the details on this rapidly developing story, click here…

Some insiders are certain Aum detonated a nuclear device of some sort. However, the investigators still haven’t decisively proven what happened. The cause of the gigantic blast remains a mystery.

This unusual story has been on my mind lately for good reason. If the group did build a nuclear weapon, it certainly needed uranium. And regular readers know uranium is my #1 investment for the year…

If I were putting my own money into something today, it would be uranium, hands down. It simply has the most explosive upside right now.

Uranium can deliver almost unbelievable returns because of unique supply-and-demand quirks that create colossal bull and bear markets.

Take Paladin Energy, for example. Doug Casey recommended this company during the last uranium bull market, and it leaped from one penny to $10 per share. That’s a 1,000-fold increase.

In other words, a $1,000 investment could have exploded into $1 million.

Even the worst-performing uranium companies delivered 20-to-1 returns during the last bull market. Today, uranium is the most distressed resource market in the world. But the current supply/demand imbalance has a lot in common with the last market cycle. It’s setting the stage for the next boom.

Then you factor in President Trump. He’s strongly pro-nuclear energy. It fits right in with his “America First” platform. Trump’s policies could effectively supercharge the coming uranium bull market.

For all these reasons, I am very bullish on uranium.

That’s why I recommended a “best of breed” uranium company in Crisis Investing. Subscribers are already sitting on a double-digit gain. I think it still has a lot more upside.

In the last uranium bull market, this company’s share price rocketed 3,600%. That’s a 10-bagger almost four times over. I expect it to do at least as well in the coming bull market.

Now is the time to get positioned for these kinds of explosive returns.

Until next time,


Nick Giambruno
Senior Editor, International Man

P.S. At last night’s Legends of Finance Summit, Doug and I discussed some of our most profitable speculations… including Doug’s thoughts on where uranium’s headed next. If you missed it, don’t worry. We’re making a replay available until midnightClick here to watch it…