Terra Tech plummeted 36% on Thursday.

Terra Tech isn’t a household name. But it’s the largest publicly traded U.S. marijuana stock.

It wasn’t the only major U.S. marijuana stock that plunged on Thursday, either.

MassRoots, a marijuana media company, fell 40%. General Cannabis, a marijuana services company, fell 40% as well.

Even Scotts Miracle-Gro got swept up in the hurricane—and it’s not even a marijuana company. It’s a fertilizer company. But many of its customers are marijuana growers.

It was a full-blown panic.

• International Man readers aren’t used to seeing marijuana stocks falling…

That’s because the industry’s been in an explosive rally since last summer.

In fact, the U.S. Marijuana Index, which tracks 15 major U.S. marijuana stocks, has more than tripled in value since July.

So, what triggered this bloodbath?

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• The answer is Jeff Sessions…

Sessions is the U.S. attorney general. He’s also a notorious drug warrior.

In fact, he once called marijuana “slightly less awful” than heroin. He also believes “good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

In short, he’s no fan of marijuana.

That said, Sessions has largely left the marijuana industry alone since he was sworn into office in February.

But last week, Sessions rescinded the Cole Memo. This policy tells federal prosecutors to treat marijuana as a state issue.

In other words, Sessions just opened the door for a possible federal crackdown.

That’s a big concern for marijuana companies.

• It’s also why marijuana stocks tanked on Thursday…

But here’s the thing…

Sessions can’t kill the legal marijuana industry.

It’s simply too big.

The U.S. marijuana market is already a $6.5 billion industry. And it’s expected to grow to $50 billion by 2026. That would make it bigger than the American craft beer and chocolate markets combined.

What’s more, 165,000 people already work in the U.S. marijuana industry. And employment will skyrocket as the industry grows.

In fact, New Frontier Data projects the legal marijuana industry will create almost 300,000 jobs by 2020. That’s more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects from manufacturing, utilities, and government jobs.

Marijuana sales are also a huge tax revenue generator for states where it’s legal.

Take Colorado. It legalized medicinal marijuana in 2000. It then legalized recreational marijuana in 2014.

In 2016, Colorado did $1.3 billion in marijuana sales. And the state collected $200 million in tax revenues from marijuana sales.

Colorado’s not alone, either. California, Washington, and Oregon all depend on marijuana sales for tax revenue.

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• Local politicians aren’t going to let Sessions go after the industry…

Here’s a quote from Illinois State Senator Heather Steans:

Consumers already have easy access to marijuana and rolling back this guidance is short sighted.

Steans also said that cracking down on the industry will push more people to buy marijuana on the black market.

Steans isn’t the only concerned politician fighting back, either.

On Thursday, Colorado Republican Senator Cory Gardner called Sessions’ decision a “complete reversal,” noting that “Sessions told me there would be no plans to reverse the Cole memorandum.”

Garden also said he will put a hold on all Justice Department nominations until Sessions reverses his stance.

In short, Sessions would face immense pressure if he goes after the industry. The backlash would be next to impossible to overcome.

Not only that, the average American favors marijuana legalization. According to a recent Gallup survey, 64% of Americans think cannabis should be totally legal. That’s an all-time high.

• Investors are realizing Sessions will fail, too…

Just look at the U.S. Marijuana Index I mentioned earlier. It’s up 26% today.

Many individual U.S. marijuana stocks are up even more. In fact, Terra Tech and MassRoots are up 30% and 48%, respectively, as we go to press.

Those are monster gains. But you must realize two things…

One, most U.S. marijuana stocks are still well off their all-time highs. They’re a bargain compared to where they were trading before Sessions opened his mouth.

And more importantly, as I’ve shown you over the last few months, the bull market in marijuana stocks is just getting started.

So, consider buying marijuana stocks while there’s still blood in the streets. Just remember to treat marijuana stocks as a speculation.

Don’t bet more money than you can afford to lose. Use stop losses. And take profits when you get them.

Regards,

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Public pensions are a financial time bomb… and I see two ways to profit from the explosion.

In the US, unfunded public pension liabilities have surpassed $5 trillion. And that’s during an epic stock and bond market bubble.

Predictably, the government’s go-to “solution” is already making matters worse.

At first, distressed states simply increase taxes.

The state comptroller of Illinois—the most financially troubled state thanks to its pension crisis—summed it up well. He said: “We can’t go bankrupt and we can’t print money. Taxpayers are going to have to pay this bill.”

State governments always squeeze property owners the hardest.

In 2016, Americans paid over $300 billion in property taxes. In Illinois and other states, property tax bills exceeding $10,000 per year are not uncommon.

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Most governments continually raise property tax rates, especially governments in bad financial health. It’s easy to simply ratchet up property taxes to bring in more revenue.

Case in point: Greece, where the country’s bankrupt government has made owning property a burden.

The following excerpt from The Guardian shows just how far Greece’s government has gone (emphasis mine):

The joke now doing the rounds is: if you want to punish your child, you threaten to pass on property to them… Greeks traditionally have always regarded property as a secure investment. But now it has become a huge millstone, given that the tax burden has increased sevenfold in the past two years alone.

It’s happened in Greece. It’s happened in Illinois, which has some of the highest property taxes in the US (and rising). And it will happen elsewhere, especially in states struggling to meet pension obligations.

Here’s an excerpt from a local Chicago news outlet. The telling headline reads “Cook County property tax bills cause outrage”:

“Our taxes increased fivefold,” said William Phillips of Rogers Park. “I was expecting it to go up maybe twice as much but not four to five times as much.”

“My tax bill increased almost $1,200 dollars,” said Cornes King of Chatham.

“More than tripled. The city’s piece more than tripled,” said Logan Square resident Janelle Squire.

Fleecing Taxpayers Won’t Fix This Crisis

Politicians don’t seem to realize (or care) that it’s mathematically impossible—and counterproductive—to try to solve the pension crisis by raising taxes.

Even if tax rates double in places like Illinois, it still won’t solve the problem. And that’s assuming the overall tax collected stays the same—which it wouldn’t.

Higher taxes would make more people leave the state and actually decrease the amount collected.

This trend is already underway. More than half a million people have left Illinois over the past decade. That includes over 3,000 millionaires who’ve fled Chicago in recent months.

Many left for a simple reason: rising taxes.

Nonetheless, raising taxes is exactly what politicians are doing. And they’ll continue to do it, even though they’re long past the point of diminishing returns.

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The Other Easy “Solution”

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve will paper over the pension crisis by printing more currency.

Politically, it seems impossible that the government would default outright on its promises to millions of its own employees when the Fed can simply print more currency.

Ultimately, this will turn a local debt crisis into a national currency crisis. And many states will effectively default on their pension obligations anyway, since those payouts will be made with depreciated currency.

The pension crisis has clear investment implications for gold.

When the government tries to “solve” the pension crisis with the printing press, I expect investors to rush into gold.

Gold has been a reliable safe-haven asset for thousands of years. Unlike paper money, it has intrinsic value. That value does not depend on a politician’s promise.

I think gold will reach not just multi-year highs, but all-time highs.

That’s why you should position yourself now.

I think everyone should own some physical gold. Gold is the ultimate form of wealth insurance. It’s preserved wealth through every kind of crisis imaginable. It will preserve wealth during the next crisis, too.

Gold Isn’t the Only Way to Profit

The pension crisis is making states desperate for every penny they can get.

That desperation is making them open to new ideas. Necessity has a way of quickly changing people’s minds.

Because of that, I expect many states to further soften their marijuana laws as they look for more sources of revenue.

In many of the states that have or will legalize cannabis, the tax revenue will exceed that of alcohol and tobacco. That’s not something a cash-strapped state can turn away from.

Just look at what’s happened in Colorado, which legalized recreational use in 2012. In 2016, its marijuana industry generated $1.3 billion in sales and $200 million in tax revenue.

A decade ago, Colorado was receiving zero in marijuana taxes.

The industry has also generated over $250 million in taxes for Washington state already.

In California, a recent study estimated that cannabis taxes would bring in at least $1.4 billion dollars each year.

Soon, cannabis tax revenue will become a permanent part of many state budgets. This will encourage other states to follow suit.

Cannabis taxes will generate a lot of money. Still, legalizing and taxing marijuana won’t solve the multitrillion-dollar pension crisis. However, for our purposes as investors, it doesn’t have to.

We’re betting that the pension crisis will boost the US marijuana industry.

It’s already forcing states to look for new sources of revenue. Inevitably (and probably soon), they’ll find the economic benefits of legalized marijuana too good to pass up.

Legalized medical marijuana has already been approved in 29 states, plus Washington, DC. And eight states (plus DC) have approved recreational use.

It’s only a matter of time before other states start cashing in on this trend, too.

And the best way for investors to cash in on the coming US legal marijuana boom is through select publicly traded cannabis companies.

Those who get into these companies stand to make a fortune in the months ahead.

Of course, no investment is risk-free. Especially with young companies in a brand-new industry.

There is also the risk of a federal crackdown. But given the sheer amount of tax revenue and jobs at stake, I think this is very unlikely. Sooner rather than later, the Deep State is going to throw in the towel on the War on (some) Drugs.

Until next time,


Nick Giambruno
Senior Editor, International Man

P.S. Legal marijuana is now the fastest-growing business on earth. Forbes even wrote it’s “the best ground-floor opportunity we’ve seen since the early days of the internet.” And while fortunes have been made with marijuana, most folks still don’t know how to find the best pot stocks.

If you think marijuana legalization is inevitable, and want to get in on the ground floor of the most promising marijuana companies, join Doug Casey and me in our new Marijuana Millionaire Summit. Click here to find out how you can attend at 8 p.m. ET tonight—for free.

Nick Giambruno

Nick is Doug Casey’s globetrotting companion and is the Senior Editor of Casey Research’s International Man. He writes about economics, offshore banking, second passports, value investing in crisis markets, geopolitics, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics. In short, Nick’s work helps people make the most of their personal freedom and financial opportunity around the world. To get his free video crash course, click here.

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Today, readers share their cannabis success stories… and question the industry’s future…

Doug, I’m in total agreement about the stupid War on Drugs. I also started investing in the cannabis sector back in 2014. This is one of the best growth sectors in the market and getting bigger every day.

I started with a few hundred dollars and have turned it into $100K, and it’s still growing. I bought them cheap, usually pennies, sold half back at 100% profit, and bought the next good-looking ones. I’ve done well with your three earlier recommendations and am looking forward to your next offerings later this month.

—Jim H.

How is the new federal approach to marijuana going to affect the states’ view? Isn’t that going to hamper the marijuana businesses knowing they could be prosecuted?

—Lou E.

Thanks for writing in, Lou. If you missed yesterday’s International Man, “Why Sessions Can’t Stop This Marijuana Boom,” be sure to read it here. As you’ll see, there’s nothing the U.S. government can do to stop this bull market in the coming months.

And if you decide you want to cash in on it like Jim did, check out our Crisis Investing advisory. There, Doug and editor Nick Giambruno share detailed guidance on the pot stocks set to deliver the biggest gains.

On a different note, not everyone agrees with Jeff Thomas’ recent article, “The Trump Monster”…

I am one of those Liberals you are ranting about. I did not vote for Hillary or Trump. They were good friends after all, before they ran against each other. As you know, their daughters were best friends. Trump and Hillary both love the very rich, war, and polluting the world to enrich themselves and their friends. They both claim Kissinger is one of their great friends—and I’m quite sure Kissinger loves them too. They both like Big Pharma and the Waltons.

The whole bunch all have a lot in common. I now live in Indonesia and Costa Rica and many have asked me about Trump—who they find disgusting—as do all of my friends wherever they live in the world. So, before you lump all Liberals in the same class, and call us lying, I would like to remind you that I live and travel in many parts of the world, and unfortunately the “liberal press” is right on. Trump is a disgrace and is taking the US down with him.

—Tabra T.

We’d love to hear from you. If you have questions or comments, send them to us right here.

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Buying marijuana in California is now as easy as buying beer.

On January 1, it finally became legal for adults age 21 and up to buy recreational cannabis in the state.

This was the true tipping point. It practically doubled the US legal cannabis market overnight.

Now that recreational pot is legal in California, the US legal marijuana market is expected to grow from $6.5 billion to $50 billion by 2026. That would make it the same size as the American craft beer and chocolate markets combined.

At this point, it’s nearly impossible to reverse the legalization trend—both in the US and globally. California is just too enormous in terms of people, money, and influence.

Think about it… the state has the world’s sixth largest economy. Only China, Japan, Germany, the UK, and the US as a whole are larger.

The new jobs and desperately needed tax revenue (an estimated $1.4 billion annually) will make it politically impossible for the state’s government to roll back legalization.

Likewise, because of California’s sheer size, it will be politically and practically impossible for the US federal government to roll it back, either.

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I expect many other US states to legalize recreational use in the near future, especially those with budget problems. (To date, 29 states have approved legalized medical marijuana and eight states have approved recreational use. Washington, DC, has also approved both.)

The end of marijuana prohibition in the US became inevitable the moment California voters decided to legalize recreational use. Reversing this trend now would be more difficult than pushing a 20,000 pound boulder back up a mountain with your bare hands.

However, most of Wall Street—and most US politicians—haven’t come to terms with this yet. Change is hard to accept, especially for pencil pushers.

That’s why the situation in California represents such a huge opportunity.

Investing in the nascent cannabis industry right now is like investing in the beer industry at the tail end of Prohibition.

Fortunes are going to be made. And you can be a part of that.

The Birth of a $150 Billion Industry

The United Nations estimates the global cannabis market to be worth around $150 billion annually. I think that’s conservative.

For perspective, about $33 billion worth of coffee is produced annually. So, the marijuana market is about four or five times bigger than the coffee market.

It’s also bigger than the iron, copper, aluminum, silver, corn, and wheat markets. You can see how these commodity markets stack up in the chart below.

Until now, almost all of this money has been underground. But that’s about to change.

The end of marijuana prohibition means we can finally profit off marijuana without risking jail time.

Widespread marijuana legalization is inevitable. It’s happening. And it’s unleashing a $150 billion market that was once underground.

Those profits are up for grabs.

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In the coming months, many investors will make life-changing fortunes as the marijuana market steps into the light.

For now, though, marijuana is still illegal in most places.

Up until recently, that made it virtually impossible for regular investors to cash in on the lucrative marijuana trade.

Prohibition has funneled billions of dollars in profits to drug lords, corrupt government officials, and thugs.

Those days are numbered…

I’ve never seen an opportunity with as much profit potential as legal marijuana has right now.

I think investors could make an absolute killing in the US “green rush.”

Until next time,


Nick Giambruno
Senior Editor, International Man

P.S. On January 10 at 8 p.m. ET, I’ll be hosting a free webinar with legendary speculator Doug Casey that shows you how to get rich in the “second” marijuana boom. We’re calling this event the New Marijuana Millionaire Summit.

During the summit, we’ll share details on how anyone with a few hundred dollars can position themselves into the future “Amazon” and “Home Depot” of the legal pot industry. If you missed the first wave of marijuana investing, don’t worry. It’s not too late to become the next marijuana millionaire.

Click here to reserve your seat right away.

Nick Giambruno

Nick is Doug Casey’s globetrotting companion and is the Senior Editor of Casey Research’s International Man. He writes about economics, offshore banking, second passports, value investing in crisis markets, geopolitics, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics. In short, Nick’s work helps people make the most of their personal freedom and financial opportunity around the world. To get his free video crash course, click here.

We are explaining our money system to our grandson, James, now 14 months old…

His mother tries to get him to go to bed at 9 p.m. But the little boy’s internal clock is still on Baltimore time; it tells him it is much too early to go to sleep.


Bill’s living room transformed into a makeshift nursery

Grandpa takes over, drawing out the monetary system like a general spreading a map on a field table. “Here is the enemy,” he says gravely. “They have us completely surrounded. We’re doomed.”

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James grumbles. He squirms. He has a sunny, optimistic temperament. But we think our explanations are sinking in.

He seems to understand…

…that money is not wealth; it just measures and represents wealth, like the claim ticket on a car in a parking garage.

…that our post-1971 money system is based on fake money that represents no wealth and measures badly.

…that this new money enters the economy as credit… and that the credit industry (Wall Street) has privileged access to it. The working man still has to earn his money, selling his work, by the hour. But Wall Street—and elite borrowers connected to the Establishment—get it without breaking a sweat or watching the clock.

…that a disproportionate share of this new money is concentrated in and around the credit industry—pushing up asset prices, raising salaries and bonuses in the financial sector, and making the rich (those who own financial assets) much richer.

…that this flood of credit helped the middle class raise its living standards, even as earnings stagnated. But it also raised debt levels throughout the economy.

…and that it allowed the average American family to spend American money that Americans never earned and buy products Americans never made…

Instead, Walmart’s shelves were stocked with goods “Made in China.” The middle class lost income as factories, jobs, and earnings moved overseas. Debt stayed at home.

“Okay so far?” we asked James as his eyeballs rolled backward and his breathing slowed.

But one thing must still puzzle him. How did the new dollar actually retard growth?

Maybe it didn’t make people richer… After all, how can you expect to make people better off by giving them fake money?

But how did it make them worse off?

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The Ultimate Absurdity

We began with an attack en masse across a broad, philosophical front:

“As you sow, so shall ye reap,” we said. “And when you put a lot of fake money into a society, you end up with a fake economy.”

Just look at Argentina in 2001… or Zimbabwe in 2006… or Venezuela now…

Prices go wild as people try to figure out what the money is really worth. But the economy shrinks.

It was the same way in Germany during the Weimar hyperinflation. People stopped producing. You might have a billion marks in your pocket, but you couldn’t find a bar of soap for sale.

“But wait… I know what you’re thinking…” we imagined James pushing back. “Those are all hyperinflation stories. We don’t have that now. Instead, we have much less inflation… Prices are almost stable.”

Yes… for now. The inflation is in the asset sector… and in credit itself… not in consumer items. But the phenomenon is much the same.

Fake money is giving grossly distorted information to everyone. In Manhattan, we are told that an ordinary apartment is worth $2 million. But in Geneva—where interest rates have turned negative—we are told that $2 million is worth nothing… You will have to pay one of the banks to take it off your hands.

Without honest money, real savings, and true interest rates, businesses and investors have nothing to guide them. They are lost in the woods. Few want to do the hard work, and take the risks, of long-term, capital-heavy ventures. Instead, the focus shifts to speculation, gambling… and playing the game for short-term profits.

What’s more, artificially low interest rates provide fatal misinformation. They tell the world that we have an infinite supply of resources—time, money, energy, and know-how.

Then, without its back to the wall of scarcity, with no need to make careful choices, capitalism becomes reckless and irresponsible with its most valuable resource—capital itself. It is destroyed, wasted, misallocated, and malinvested. Growth rates fall and the world becomes poorer.

James is startled awake. He is disturbed.

“What kind of a world have I been born into…?” he seems to ask.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
Chairman, Bonner & Partners

Years ago, when visiting the US, I’d often watch late night television. Just prior to each interval, in order to ensure that viewers would sit through the adverts, the show would run a panel that said, “More to Come.”

This, of course, was effective, as the viewer would be anticipating that the best part of the programme would come in a later segment. He would then be more likely to continue watching.

Today, we’re looking at the reverse of that situation. The programme we’re watching is The Decline and Fall of the American Empire and those who recognize the decline are viewing with ever-increasing trepidation the developments that are unfolding there. Even those of us who are not American and don’t live there are glued to our screens, as we’re aware that we’re viewing the early stages of a collapse that promises to be the greatest social, political, and economic event that we’re likely to see in our lifetimes.

Following World War Two, the US was in a boom beyond anything the world had ever seen. The Americans came to the war late, after having built up their manufacturing capacity for war dramatically, at the expense of the Allied powers in Europe. And they achieved this, essentially for free. It was paid for with the gold from the vaults of the European allies. After the war, Europe was trashed, and it would take decades for them to get on their feet again. Meanwhile, the US had been going flat-out in production, had first-rate modern factories, and, most importantly, held the majority of the world’s gold.

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Please note: Per our trading policy, Doug is not recommending any investment he personally owns or has a vested interest in.

The 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement ensured that the US dollar would become the world’s default currency and would later become the petrodollar, ensuring American hegemony over much of the rest of the world.

There can be no doubt that, in the first decades after the war, the US had an amazing run and was, arguably, one of the best places to live in the world.

But, unfortunately, as so often happens, American political and industry leaders became full of themselves and couldn’t resist going out on a limb to gain even more for themselves. In so doing, they turned the US from the world’s foremost creditor nation into the world’s foremost debtor nation. Worse, when they reached this unprecedented point, they opted to just keep going.

Worse still, it would appear that today’s leaders are aware that the mother of all bubbles that they’ve created is going to pop sometime in the near future, as they’re preparing themselves for the mother of all pushbacks from the populace when the crashes come.

The FBI, CIA, NSA, and a host of other authorities have either been created or expanded, allowing the creation of the world’s foremost police state. And, beginning in 2001 with the Patriot Act, they have created a host of laws to assign authority to any of those bodies to exert ever-increasing control over the population. Capital controls, migration controls, higher taxes, confiscation of deposits in banks, and quite a bit more have been passed in legislation, including the ability to declare the US in its entirety to be a “battle zone,” through which habeas corpus and the court system can be suspended nationally.

Yipes. (Or blimey, depending on where you’re from.)

At this point, any American who’s paying attention could be forgiven if he’s genuinely frightened as to where his government is going with all this.

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And so, we come back to the title of this essay—“More to Come.”

A regular flow of proposed laws is now coming down the pipeline that would have been considered the stuff of a bad movie a few decades ago, but is now only too real and  threatening to the freedoms of the average citizen.

Instead of “more to come” meaning that the best is still on the way, the opposite would appear to be the case.

“But how can this be?” we ask ourselves. Surely those in power—the politicians, the industrialists, the central bankers, etc.—must see this coming, and, if that’s so, surely they’ll do something to stop it.

Well, historically, that’s never been the case. Those in the greatest positions of power have never suddenly reversed an empire when it was about to self-destruct. What they tend to do instead is to guard against becoming casualties of the disaster they’ve created.

So, is that what’s happening this time around? In a word, yes.

The Bernie Madoffs of the world go to jail. However, those who commit the same fraudulent acts from within the system never go to jail. For example, if the heads of a bank commit massive fraud, the bank pays an enormous fine. The fine is then paid by the stockholders. And should the fine be large enough to crash the bank, the bankers can appeal to the government to bail them out, as they’re “too big to fail.” Thus, the taxpayers pick up the bill. Therefore, the more damage the bankers do, the more they prosper.

At this point, what we’re witnessing is an era in which laws are regularly being passed to ensure that the creators of the bubble will have a “Get Out of Jail Free” card and others will sustain the losses.

This is the very essence of what happens in an endgame run. Just as a hitman who places a bomb in a building makes his exit before the bomb can go off, the creators of bubbles safeguard themselves before the economic bomb can go off. They have no intention of being around to live with the resultant devastation that they’ve put into play.

Pete Townshend wrote, prophetically, “Won’t Get Fooled Again” in 1971, in which he hoped that the latest gang of leaders would be better than the last. In the final line of the song, he grimly announces, “Meet the new boss—same as the old boss.”

And, in fact, this is the usual outcome. Perhaps the reason why empires collapse much in the same way, time and again, and their citizens consistently fail to see it coming, is that empires general last a long time before collapsing. The Venetian Republic lasted over 1,000 years. The Spanish Empire lasted just under 500 years. Holland lasted 130 years; Russia, almost 200; the UK, by some estimates, about 300.

And it’s been much the same for the others. In every case, they last longer than a single lifetime, so it’s rare that any individual sees more than one empire collapse in his own lifetime and doesn’t understand that empires don’t end with a whimper. They end with a crescendo, not unlike The Who’s “Won’t Get Fooled Again.”

We will be witness to the collapse of the world’s foremost empire. This is not mere conjecture. The US has all the symptoms that historically precede a collapse, and we’re now coming close to the final stages.

And, if history plays out yet again, as it has repeatedly, we can expect that, in the lead-up to the collapse, the controls by governments will become increasingly draconian. As we consider “more to come,” we should be braced for the likelihood that the worst controls are yet to be revealed.

Regards,

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Governments regularly claim that they favour tax reform. When this claim has been repeated so many times that virtually no one believes them anymore, they announce a tax reform, to show that they really mean it. They then reshuffle the existing taxes to give the appearance that taxation will actually be lowered.

When it becomes apparent that the reform is a sham, they often pull a rabbit out of a hat in the form of a “temporary” tax, that’s pre-legislated to end sometime in the future.

Sounds promising.

So, let’s have a look at one such temporary tax and see how things worked out.

The US government introduced the War Revenue Act of 1898—a tax on telephone use—under the claim that it was necessary to pay for the Spanish American War.

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In what way does telephone use pertain to a government invading another country? Well, actually, one has nothing to do with the other. But, let’s leave that discussion for another day and see how this temporary tax played out.

The Act was repealed in 1902 but was reinstated, this time as the Emergency Internal Revenue Tax Act of 1914. The justification then given was that another war was on the way and increased taxation to pay for it couldn’t begin too soon. Telephone users needed to cough up.

It was decided by both parties to increase the tax on telephones and the War Revenue Act of 1917 was created. It hadn’t passed the debate stage until the war was over, but they decided that they’d implement it anyway, as the work had already been done. In the bargain, they introduced not only increased rates, but graduated rates.

This act was also repealed, in 1924, but was reinstated with the Revenue Act of 1932. Since that date, it has been reauthorised 29 times.

In 1941, an increase was put in place to pay for (you guessed it) another war—World War II. This was increased again in 1943, but people complained and the new law contained a provision that the increased rates would end six months after “the date of termination of hostilities in the present war.” However, the Excise Tax Act of 1947 was passed to assure that the tax would continue indefinitely.

Over the subsequent years, periodic changes were made. Although the rates went up and down like a bride’s nightie, most, not surprisingly, were upward.

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As further (undeclared) wars came and went, taxation on telephone calls repeatedly needed to be increased and, regardless of the party in power, increases continued.

At long last, on 14 September, 2000, the House of Representatives took up legislation which included the repeal of the telephone excise tax. This measure passed both houses, but the fix was in. President Clinton vetoed the repeal. (The legislative branch and the executive branch have to take turns playing the bad cop, but the outcome is the same: increased taxation.)

Then, in 2006, a case was made (in the words of the Treasury Secretary), to amend the Internal Revenue Code “of an outdated, antiquated tax that has survived a century beyond its original purpose, and by now should have been ancient history.”

Finally, American citizens could wash their hands of a one-hundred-year theft of their earnings that, even at the start, was based upon a ludicrous concept.

Unfortunately… it didn’t happen.

The repeal was never enacted and Americans continue to pay for the Spanish American War today.

So, what’s the takeaway here?

Well, first off, this little history serves as a reminder that there’s nothing so permanent as a temporary government measure.

Second, although not a month goes by without one politician or another, from one party or the other, rising up in righteous indignation that a new tax or an expanded tax is absolutely necessary to continue the welfare of the American people, there is, in truth, no sincerity in their claim. They simply want more money.

Third, no amount of money is ever enough. Even if Washington, D.C., is the only part of the US that is enjoying prosperity, even if no congressman leaves office without more zeroes behind his net worth than when he went in, virtually every legislator will vote for increases in taxation.

And, fourth, there’s no such thing as tax reform. From time to time, legislators will need to trot out the idea of tax reform, and be seen to be arguing over the details, but will ultimately always do the same: the deck will be reshuffled, but somehow, taxes will rise once again.

But the overall lesson to be learned is that Government is, and has always been, a shell game. Its purpose is not to serve the electorate; it is to separate them from the fruits of their labours.

Full stop.

As former US Chief Justice John Marshall stated,

The power to tax involves the power to destroy.

More recently, Ron Holland offered the following:

Since the beginning of recorded history, the business of government has been wealth confiscation.

However, both these individuals were conservatives, and it would only be fair to ask for commentary from the liberal side. One such liberal political leader is none other than Vladimir Lenin, who stated,

The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.

Of course, the reader may wish to consider relocating to a jurisdiction where the taxation is far lower, but if he chooses to remain in the US, EU, Canada, or other jurisdiction where the tax level is already oppressive, his plans should include temporary taxes that are unlikely to end in his lifetime.

Regards,

Se quiser surfar a…

… TERCEIRA ONDA DE VALORIZAÇÃO DO IMOBILIÁRIO EM PORTUGAL

Uma nova oportunidade está a surgir e poucas pessoas a identificaram. Entre essas pessoas está Artur Mariano que, ao utilizar uma estratégia própria, está a obter retornos até +27% ao ano.

Não perca a novidade que a Empiricus preparou para lucrar com esta nova onda.

 

Caro leitor,

proponho que preste atenção a esta mensagem por uma única razão: a conclusão desta história pode fazê-lo ganhar muito dinheiro.

É tão simples quanto isso.

Quando falo em dinheiro, não me refiro a uma percentagem qualquer.

É sobre grandes retornos que quero falar-lhe hoje, de +20%, +40%, +52%.

Por isso vou já direto ao assunto.

Uma terceira ONDA de valorização do mercado imobiliário está a formar-se

Repare neste gráfico que apresenta o comportamento do preço das habitações em Portugal em quase uma década:

Como pode ver, o preço médio das habitações em Portugal já ultrapassou a máxima de 2008, valores pré-crise.

O setor está, inegavelmente, em alta.

Gostaria que prestasse atenção, no entanto, a um pormenor que faz toda a diferença.

Acabei de referir que este índice representa a média mas, como vai ver já a seguir, muita dessa valorização esteve concentrada nos grandes centros urbanos, exatamente como previmos em 2015:

Neste caso específico falámos de retornos de +46% e até mais.

A pergunta que agora lhe coloco é: já pensou que valorizações trará esta nova onda?

+10%, +20% ou +30%?

Melhor ainda do que conhecer os ganhos potenciais é saber onde é que esta onda se está a formar e com que estratégia poderá surfá-la.

É isso mesmo que vai ficar a conhecer já de seguida.

Mas antes preciso que esteja a par das razões pelas quais aconselhamos o investimento em imobiliário:

1 – O imobiliário é o único mercado onde pode adquirir ativos abaixo do valor de mercado.

2 – Os imóveis são tangíveis, são ativos que pode ver e tocar.

3 – Os imóveis serão sempre necessários e por isso, a longo prazo, é expectável que o seu valor cresça.

4 – Os preços dos imóveis são menos voláteis.

5 – Os imóveis têm mais vantagens fiscais.

Todos estes pontos são desenvolvidos mais adiante, como lhe iremos explicar.

Para nos ajudar a compreender este fenómeno, não convidei um mero teórico da área que nunca tinha investido neste setor.

Desafiei um grande especialista na matéria com provas dadas na prática no mercado de imóveis alemão e português, entre outros.

O seu nome é Artur Mariano. Ele vai explicar a melhor forma de aproveitar esta nova onda de valorização.

Além da capacidade para prever a terceira onda de valorização do imobiliário em Portugal, o Artur teve a coragem de lançar este alerta. E juntos, estamos hoje aqui, para partilhar consigo esta oportunidade.

Atenção: Não nos estamos a referir ao que toda a gente sabe e que foi amplamente noticiado nos média.

Referimo-nos a uma descentralização do investimento imobiliário.

As grandes oportunidades de investimento – e o imobiliário não foge à regra – estão precisamente onde pouca gente está a olhar.

Por esta ordem de ideias, os melhores negócios não podem estar onde está o rebanho.

Concordará comigo que não é numa agência imobiliária que vai encontrar as melhores oportunidades…

Até porque, quando a procura é muita para os mesmos ativos, os preços tendem a subir.

terceira onda está a formar-se fora dos lugares óbvios, amplamente divulgados pelos jornais e que já estão demasiado precificados.

É de zonas pouco exploradas, mas com um grande potencial de originar retornosextraordinários, que lhe estamos aqui a falar.

Pessoas comuns que acumulam lucros medíocres ou até mesmo inexistentes nas suas aplicações bancárias vão conseguir retornos bem mais apetecíveis com esta oportunidade que lhe vou indicar.

O Artur é a pessoa que identificou este ciclo específico graças à estratégia que ele utiliza há anos, depois de uma década a investir em imobiliário, e que lhe tem trazido rentabilidades de até +30%.

Skin in the game, como dizem os americanos. Ele acredita de tal forma no setor que começou a investir no imobiliário muito cedo.

A sua estratégia foi precisamente fruto do seu trabalho de pesquisa teórica colocada em prática. Com alguns erros mas muitos mais acertos ao longo do caminho.

Tudo isto ele irá partilhar consigo.

Engenheiro informático de formação, o seu gosto por números levou-o a tirar um PhD em criptografia – que trocando por miúdos é matemática aplicada – na melhor universidade do mundo na área, na Alemanha.

É, no entanto, no setor imobiliário que se sente como peixe na água. De tal forma que criou uma empresa de consultoria com foco no imobiliário através da qual contacta com investidores de todo o mundo.

Com toda essa experiência acumulada, ele já ajudou investidores de mais de 10 nacionalidades diferentes a investir em Portugal, entre as quais americana, britânica e brasileira.

Mais do que bater por muito o mercado, o Artur sabe como poucos identificar novas oportunidades e dar dinheiro a ganhar aos seus seguidores.

Sejam eles nacionais ou estrangeiros que procuram investir parte do seu capital numa moeda mais forte e obter um visto gold como brinde. 

Acredite: ele é a pessoa certa para juntar-se à nossa equipa e fazê-lo lucrar com esta raríssima oportunidade de multiplicação de capital.

Para já deixamos-lhe um conselho: esqueça as grandes cidades como Lisboa e Porto onde já não encontrará imóveis a serem vendidos a preços abaixo do seu real valor.

Esta nova onda a que o Artur se refere está a espalhar-se dos grandes centros para localizações específicas às quais o leitor terá acesso dentro de poucos minutos.

Novamente uma chamada de atenção: não estamos a falar nem de uma zona qualquer nem de todos os tipos de habitação.

Apenas as que o Artur recomendar.

O que este especialista sabe (que o leitor não sabe)

Passaram-se meses até o Artur ver concluído o documento imprescindível para quem quer começar a investir nesta área, seja residente em Portugal ou não.

A estratégia que ele vai partilhar hoje consigo é a mesma que ele usa para os seus investimentos imobiliários.

Neste momento o Artur conta com 14 imóveis e um investimento acima do meio milhão de euros.

Ele vai acompanhar de perto as oportunidades de investimento que estão a surgir neste setor.

E a boa notícia é que, neste caso, não precisa de tanto capital inicial para investir. Com €60.000 já poderá começar a investir no imobiliário.

Porque tão importante quanto comprar barato é comprar na hora certa.

E a hora certa para investir na terceira onda é AGORA se quiser conseguir lucros até +52%.

Por essa razão resolvemos antecipar em dois meses o lançamento deste documento imprescindível.

Avaliar imóveis com a estratégia que o Artur criou e utiliza nos seus negócios pessoais, permite dizer com relativa segurança se se trata de um bom ou mau investimento.

Entre outras mais-valias, a estratégia do Artur permite:

  • Avaliar diferentes mercados para saber se é altura para comprar ou eventualmente vender.
  • Encontrar imóveis para buy-and-hold (comprar e arrendar) a preços abaixo do valor de mercado e que por isso tragam de retorno yields (taxas de retorno de capital) acima dos +15% ou até dos +20%, por ano sem contar com a valorização do imóvel.
  • Encontrar imóveis que tenham bons yields e que os gerem de forma totalmente passiva (sem que necessite cobrar rendas ou reparar canos rotos) e em certos casos sem ter que pagar pela manutenção.
  • Encontrar imóveis com rentabilidade garantida – isto é, que tenham contratos de arrendamento de mais de 8 anos já em vigor.
  • Calcular rentabilidades e perceber se a alavancagem é benéfica para o seu caso. E se for, como negociar com os bancos.
  • Indicar o passo-a-passo para cidadãos estrangeiros que queiram investir no imobiliário em Portugal. Tudo o que precisa saber, estará nesta série.

… e muito muito mais!

terceira onda já está em marcha e não espera por si.

O Artur tem vindo a estudar diferentes mercados imobiliários espalhados pelo mundo ao longo dos anos e chegou a uma conclusão muito importante:

o tamanho do mercado não implica necessariamente que o rácio da procura e da oferta seja pior ou melhor.

Passo a explicar: se, por exemplo, numa grande cidade existirem 50.000 compradores para um apartamento, não nos coloca necessariamente mais perto de vender essa mesma casa do que numa cidade pequena com apenas 500 interessados.

Isto porque se existirem 100.000 apartamentos disponíveis para venda na cidade maior e apenas 250 na mais pequena, estatisticamente falando, teremos mais oportunidades vender o nosso apartamento na cidade de menor dimensão.

Dois bons exemplos que ilustram esta situação vêm dos Estados Unidos da América. Um deles é Detroit.

Em 1990 aquela cidade tinha mais de um milhão de habitantes. Hoje tem menos de 70% disso:

No exemplo oposto, ou seja, de uma cidade que tem crescido a olhos vistos está Tampa, na Florida, que passou de 280.000 habitantes em 1990 para mais de 377.000 hoje em dia.

Fonte: World Population Review

Como tal, o valor do imobiliário também subiu muito nesta última cidade.

Para ter uma ideia, quem tivesse comprado imóveis em Tampa há 10-15 anos teria tido um retorno de quase 1.000%, ou seja, uma média +66% ao ano.

O ponto aqui a ter em conta é que uma cidade grande pode decrescer em população (e em valor imobiliário) e que outra pequena pode subir e muito.

Ou por outra, o tamanho de uma cidade e o seu potencial de crescimento não estão necessariamente relacionados.

Contextualizando para a realidade portuguesa, num cenário como o atual – juros baixos, alta procura externa e oferta de novas construções limitada – a valorização expressiva que já aconteceu nos centros das principais cidades tende a replicar-se noutros sítios.

O que estou a querer dizer com isto é que em Portugal ainda existem Tampas por esse país fora, onde pode, com um baixo orçamento conseguir retornos extraordinários.

Mas atenção, investir no momento ou no local errado pode comprometer a sua riqueza ao longo de uma vida. Leu bem – toda a vida.

É para evitar uma situação destas que o Artur está aqui hoje.

Ele é a pessoa mais capacitada para identificar os fatores por detrás deste fenómeno e indicar-lhe, com precisão, como e onde ganhar muito dinheiro com esta terceira ondado imobiliário em Portugal.

A hora H para o imobiliário

Observe o gráfico seguinte que se refere à média de transações de imóveis num estudo feito pela ArrowPlus, referente aos últimos 24 meses.

Como se pode aperceber, ainda há muito espaço para conseguir grandes valorizações fora dos principais centros urbanos portugueses.

Para esta nova oportunidade de investimento muito têm contribuído os juros baixos que estão em mínimos históricos.

Fonte: Empiricus Research; Banco de Portugal

E como já aqui referimos, há ainda o investidor estrangeiro que está a comprar imóveis para utilizá-los como habitação permanente ou simplesmente atraído pelos retornos do setor muito superiores ao resto da Europa.

Afinal só o ano passado vimos investidores oriundos de mais de 40 países investir em Portugal.

Não podemos ignorar o que está a acontecer.

É algo que poderá ter desdobramentos inevitáveis para o seu bolso. Falamos de potenciais valorizações de +52%.

Sim, estamos no meio de um terceiro fenómeno de valorização.

E o leitor precisa tomar medidas rápidas para se aproveitar o mais rapidamente possível desta oportunidade.

Para fechar, veja o gráfico seguinte:

Repare como do lado da oferta, a construção de novos fogos está em níveis muito baixos e totalmente inadequados para a procura que é altíssima.

O cronómetro está em marcha.

Quanto mais rápido se posicionar, maior será a sua oportunidade de obter lucros.

O meu nome é Pedro Gonçalves e sou editor-chefe da Empiricus Portugal.

Com a ajuda do Artur Mariano vamos mostrar-lhe como ganhar muito dinheiro com esta janela no imobiliário que se abriu.

Ao contrário do que muita gente pensa, este setor é muito mais que um instrumento de proteção do património.

É também uma forma de obter lucros avultados, como vimos anteriormente e sem investir muito logo de início.

Convém lembrar que somos uma casa independente de análise de investimentos.

Por isso, temos a liberdade para lhe recomendar o melhor do mercado.

Deixar as suas poupanças de uma vida num depósito a prazo é deitar dinheiro à rua, não me canso de repetir isso.

É preciso aproveitar as boas oportunidades.

Assim sendo, preparámos uma novidade aos interessados neste tema.

Após termos lançado dois produtos relacionados com o imobiliário, uma minissérie e um curso….

… criámos um plano anual para que tire o máximo partido desta nova onda de valorização

Chama-se Investidor Imobiliário

O objetivo é oferecer um acompanhamento constante e acessível a toda a gente que queira investir na terceira onda de valorização do imobiliário em Portugal e por isso a sua periodicidade será quinzenal.

Para fazer parte da comunidade de investidores imobiliários da Empiricus basta querer ganhar percentuais na casa dos +50% e gostar do tema imobiliário.

Não precisa ter conhecimentos em finanças ou economia.

Se não estiver a olhar para este setor como um investimento e quiser apenas comprar casa própria também vai beneficiar desta assinatura.

Da mesma forma que se já possuir um imóvel e quiser saber se está na altura certa de vendê-lo…

… esta mensagem também é para si.

Investir em imóveis não é só saber comprar, é também saber vender na hora certa.

Foi para isso que criámos o plano Investidor Imobiliário, para dar-lhe o passo a passo.

Queremos oferecer algo prático com acesso ao máximo número de pessoas possível.

Como tal, os relatórios estarão escritos de uma forma simples para que todos possam entender.

Sem dúvida que a compra de um imóvel é o maior investimento unitário que qualquer um de nós fará ao longo da vida.

E os portugueses sabem disso melhor que ninguém uma vez que são dos povos que detêm mais propriedades relativamente aos seus congéneres europeus.

Se perde um dia a procurar o melhor preço para as calças que quer comprar, ou uma semana para poupar 10% na nova televisão, quanto tempo e dinheiro acha que deve investir na compra da sua casa?

Não há qualquer outro bem em que deva investir tanto tempo para se educar sobre o mercado.

Mas não precisa desperdiçar as suas horas à procura dessa informação.

Quinzenalmente, o Artur vai fazê-la chegar a si.

O que parecia impossível há alguns meses começa agora a materializar-se.

O leitor não pode ignorar esta terceira onda no setor imobiliário.

Em breve saberá quais são os locais onde esta possível valorização de +52% está a começar a acontecer.

Um potencial realmente avassalador.

Já imaginou o que poderia fazer com esse lucro?

– Garantir uma educação melhor para os seus filhos

– Construir um colchão de liquidez que possa dar segurança financeira à sua família

– Permitir a realização dos seus sonhos…

É possível que ainda esteja incrédulo com o tamanho da oportunidade que está à sua frente.

Aqui na Empiricus queremos que aproveite ao máximo esse potencial.

O que deve fazer agora para ganhar com esta terceira oportunidade

1#) Se quiser investir no imobiliário deve fazê-lo agora

O Artur preparou um plano anual de relatórios quinzenais que explicam em detalhe esta terceira onda de valorização.

Ele vai partilhar consigo todo este material já de seguida.

Desta forma terá acesso, em primeira mão, às principais conclusões de um verdadeiro especialista no setor.

Esta série pode poupar-lhe anos de erros… aqueles que ele próprio cometeu ou viu outros cometer. E vai trazer-lhe conhecimentos que ele levou anos a adquirir.

#2) Siga à risca o que o Artur Mariano aconselha

A nossa recomendação é que não se aventure em investimentos que não valham a pena.

Lembre-se que a estratégia do Artur já lhe trouxe retornos extraordinários. Ele testou com o produto das suas poupanças o seu próprio método e está aqui hoje para compartilhá-lo consigo.

Para que possa conseguir retornos até +52%.

Mas é preciso posicionar-se já.

Só com as informações contidas nos dois primeiros relatórios do Investidor Imobiliário a que terá acesso hoje já seria suficiente para mudar completamente o modo como olha para este setor.

No entanto, o Artur vai continuar a entregar novos relatórios a cada 15 dias.

Trata-se de informação obrigatória que o colocará numa posição muito vantajosa se quiser ganhar muito dinheiro neste setor.

Está a um passo da decisão financeira mais importante da sua vida

Pode ficar parado e assistir a uma nova onda de valorização do imobiliário…

… enquanto outras pessoas começam a ganhar dinheiro com esta janela de oportunidade.

A opção é sua.

Se decidir tomar as rédeas do seu património financeiro para si, com uma atitude simples, poderá mudar de uma vez por todas o padrão financeiro da sua família.

Pelo menos passe os olhos no trabalho sério que o Artur desenvolveu.

Tenho a firme convicção de que terá toda a informação necessária para investir de forma certeira o seu dinheiro.

Ao experimentar a série Investidor Imobiliário, o leitor terá acesso imediato a:

– Relatório I – Fundamentos base do investimento em imobiliário

– Relatório II – É afinal o interior de Portugal um bom ou mau lugar para investir em imobiliário?

– Relatório quinzenal Investidor Imobiliário – Quinzenalmente o Artur vai apresentar-lhe os seus estudos sobre imobiliário, bem como oportunidades únicas para investir na terceira onda do imobiliário. Se for um investidor estrangeiro saberá ainda como dar os primeiros passos para comprar casa em Portugal.

Gostou da minha proposta?

Talvez esteja a pensar que todo este conteúdo lhe vai sair caro…

Se reparar o preço normal da assinatura na nossa loja é de 99,99 euros.

No entanto, o preço especial de lançamento do Investidor Imobiliário é de apenas €49,95 ao ano.

Exclusivamente através desta mensagem pagará um valor tão baixo. A nossa ideia é ter um produto acessível a toda a gente e como tal o preço não pode ser um impedimento.

Reforço, são menos de €5 ao mês, alguns cêntimos ao dia, para conseguir obter retornos até +52%.

Não acha que esse pequeno investimento vale a pena?

QUERO INVESTIR NA TERCEIRA ONDA DE VALORIZAÇÃO DO IMOBILIÁRIO

Estou convicto de que os nossos leitores vão proteger milhares de euros dos seus patrimónios e ganhar outros tantos.

E mais interessante ainda é poder ter acesso a todo esse trabalho desenvolvido durante meses sem nenhum tipo de risco ou obrigação.

Isto porque, durante os primeiros 20 dias, caso tenha acesso à série Investidor Imobiliário e, por alguma razão entenda que ela não encaixa no seu perfil, basta solicitar a interrupção da assinatura que verá o seu dinheiro reembolsado.

Isso mesmo, receberá 100% do dinheiro investido.

Ao concordar com os termos aqui apresentados estará apenas a aceitar experimentar o trabalho desenvolvido pelo Artur Mariano para ver se gosta e com isso terá acesso integral a esta terceira onda que lhe poderá gerar lucros até +52%.

Espero que considere seriamente a minha oferta até porque a onda já se começou a formar e quanto mais cedo se posicionar maiores serão os seus lucros.

Tenho a forte convicção de que esta será uma das melhores decisões financeiras que tomará em toda a sua vida.

Para começar confirme a sua assinatura clicando no botão abaixo que irá levá-lo a uma página 100% segura.

A sua ordem será processada imediatamente e terá acesso a todo o nosso trabalho no mesmo minuto.

QUERO LUCROS EXTRAORDINÁRIOS COM A TERCEIRA ONDA DE VALORIZAÇÃO DO IMOBILIÁRIO

Até breve,
Pedro Gonçalves

Is a police state in the US possible? Absolutely.

That’s because people are essentially the same the world over, regardless of their culture, religion, race, or what-have-you. A certain percentage of them are sociopaths.

There is a standard distribution of sociopaths across time and space. It’s a function of Pareto’s Law, better known as the 80-20 rule. 20% of the people do 80% of the work. Another 20% are responsible for 80% of the crime. 20% of the population always winds up with 80% of the wealth. And so forth, through all areas of human endeavor. This observation can be represented by a bell-shaped curve—a “standard distribution”—with a small minority at each extreme, but the large majority in the middle. The people who will take us to a police state are sociopaths—criminal personalities who don’t respect the liberty or property of others. And sociopaths gravitate towards government, and eventually come to control it.

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My view is that 80% of human beings are basically decent, get along, go along types. 20% are what you might call potential trouble sources, that can go either way. But then you take 20% of that 20% and you’re dealing with the sociopaths.

When social conditions reach a certain stage these really bad guys come out from under their rocks and take advantage of the situation. We’re seeing that right now in the US, across the political spectrum. Just as we’ve seen in the past in hundreds of places throughout history.

A major tipping point occurred sixteen years ago, on September 11, 2001, with the attacks in New York and Washington. They were disastrous. But not nearly as disastrous as the government’s reaction to them.

Among them the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. Anybody that speaks German knows that a reasonable translation of Homeland Security is Geheime Staatspolizei, which is usually abbreviated to Gestapo. Anybody that goes through airline security these days should ask themselves, “Where the hell did they find these people? Didn’t they have jobs before they went to work for this moronic agency?” The answer is that there are people out there who like wearing costumes, are willing to boss, herd, interrogate, and go through the dirty laundry of their fellow citizens. They take their jobs seriously and you better not even look at them sideways. There’s no reason to believe it’s going to get better as they groove into their jobs, and their employer cements itself into place. More likely the trend will accelerate.

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Is America currently a police state? Well, let’s see. You can still get in your car and go anywhere, although you might be stopped by the police and you might be detained if your papers aren’t in order. Or the officer thinks you’re not properly respectful. Or you have “too much” cash.

Was there any particular day that Germany became a police state in the 1930s? I’m not sure you can put your finger on any one particular day, even after Hitler was legally and democratically elected. It was a progression, with new laws, new regulations, new taxes every day. While more fear and hysteria were worked up among the populace. Kristallnacht didn’t occur the day after the National Socialists took power.

It’s a case of the frog being put in a kettle of water where the temperature is gradually raised to a boil. That’s what’s occurring in the US. After 9/11, in addition to Homeland Security, we got the Patriot Act, with, among other things, its suspension of habeas corpus. That means that the government can lock anybody up for any reason and not even have to tell them why. Accuse them of being an “enemy combatant”—a neologism that justifies anything, and is robotically and thoughtlessly accepted by Boobus americanus —and anything is possible. Including a trip to a CIA black site in some Third World hellhole. This is something I thought was settled in Western Civilization with the Magna Carta and King John. But we’re going backwards in most areas of personal freedom. And America, of all places, is leading the way—even while falling behind economically.

I don’t know if I can put my finger on exactly when we’re going to go over the edge, but if I was going to guess I would think the real catalyst is going to be the next 9/11-type event. And I don’t doubt it’s going to happen.

How are we any different than the Germans in the 1930s? This was one of the most civilized, best educated countries in Europe and they fell into the abyss. I suppose we’re a bit different. Americans are addicted to welfare, anti-depressant drugs, food, and electronic devices. That should certainly give us a better outcome…

There’s a joke I like to tell. Let me ask you this: Which is the gravest danger? Is it the ignorance, or is it the apathy of the average American today? Stumped? Here’s the answer: I don’t know and I don’t care.

Regards,

When I was a boy, cartoonist Charles Schulz introduced a new comic strip called Peanuts. Its central premise was children having the same problems as adults, and it was an instant hit.

There were several recurring themes and, each autumn, the cartoonist would have his main character, Charlie Brown, attempt to fly a kite. At first all would go well, and Charlie Brown would build up his hopes, only to have them dashed when a tree would snag his kite and eat it.

This theme was endlessly enjoyable, as it reflected a syndrome familiar to all adults. The cartoonist was careful to ensure that he could do new variations on the theme every autumn, due to the fact that Charlie Brown never succeeded. At the end of the strip, the tree always ate his kite.

And so it often goes in the adult world. Albert Einstein famously said, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

And, yet, in every era, we can see this strange behaviour play itself out, time and again.

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People go to casinos, imagining that, somehow, the casino will lose and they will win. They buy lottery tickets with odds of hundreds of thousands to one against them.

And, amazingly, they invest in the stock market, not just badly, but in the very same pattern that has historically proven to virtually guarantee loss. More amazingly, this is not the behaviour of the occasional loser; it’s the approach adopted by the great majority of investors and is one that they staunchly defend as “wise and informed investing,” right until the crash that cleans them out.

So what, then, is this pattern? Well, generally, a potential investor contacts his broker and asks him if there’s anything he can recommend. The broker virtually always says yes—that whilst some stocks do not earn his endorsement, there are others that he feels are almost certain to go up.

Should the investor then buy, he can count on the broker to push the prospect of further investment, whenever one of his recommendations has risen in value. (He’s less likely to get in touch if his recommendations go down.)

As each bull market unfolds, the broker advises his clients that, if they don’t continue to buy, they’ll be “missing out,” and the opportunity for enrichment will pass them by.

Each investor who’s roped in by this spiel reinforces the broker’s prediction, expanding the bull market and attracting more and more investors to get into the game.

Then, something very interesting happens.

In a major bull market, when investors have reached their limit, they’re advised that they can buy on margin and increase their position. This is acknowledged as being risky in normal times, but these are not normal times. This is the mother of all bull markets, and “the sky’s the limit.” The investors dive in.

When they become so strapped that they cannot buy on margin any further, many investors, believing that they’re on the cusp of getting rich, borrow money privately to buy on margin and, in so doing, become dramatically leveraged, but they do so because the broker promises that the bull market is going “to the moon.”

But, like all bubbles, this one, too, eventually pops. Naturally, Wall Street doesn’t want an uncontrolled collapse of the market (after all, they wish to get themselves out before a crash), so, their ideal scenario is to create a controlled crash. Once the writing is on the wall, they themselves sell out, just prior to a trigger that will collapse the market.

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In 1929, this was achieved through a sudden raise in interest rates. Since investors were up to their eyes in debt, any rise in interest rates meant that they’d default on their loans. The brokers would then unilaterally sell off their clients’ portfolios (as they are entitled to do in a margin call). They, of course, hope to salvage the maximum amount possible for themselves, so they do their best to liquidate everythingovernight.

The customary reaction by investors is to be stunned that a crash occurred that they didn’t see coming and that they woke up one morning to find that they’d sustained a massive loss.

In the early 2000s, a small number of people (myself included), predicted a stock market crash. I estimated its occurrence to be in 2007, so, in order to be out well ahead of time, I was out in 2006. (As it transpired, I was out earlier than necessary, for which I had no regret.)

Prior to the crash, I warned friends and associates, who invariably said, “All indicators say that the market’s still going up. If it starts to slide downward, then I may sell.”

I repeatedly reminded them that a major bull market never ends with a whimper. It invariably ends with a major upside spike, before it suddenly plummets downward.

And this is not a coincidence. It’s based upon the behaviour stated above.

What I find truly amazing is that most investors never learn. Even after they’ve been cleaned out once, they simply find another “better” broker and start all over. Incredibly, the average investor will work hard at his regular job and do all he can to get better at it, then, whatever savings he can create that year, he hands over to someone else to manage. He makes little or no effort to educate himself in the patterns of bull and bear markets so that he can avoid another failure.

He repeatedly takes his kite out to fly it amongst the trees.

Many investors make the same mistake over and over, throughout their careers, working hard for their pay, then literally throwing away their savings.

Today, we’re approaching the end of a major bull market. This one is especially interesting, in that, since 2008, we’ve been in a depression that virtually no one acknowledges. Those on Wall Street state with confidence that, despite increased unemployment, manufacturers leaving the country in droves, diminishing GDP, extensive business closures, etc., “This can’t be a depression if the market is up.”

Unfortunately, what we’re really witnessing is the world’s longest sucker-rally.

In the 1930s, a popular, if bitter-tasting, joke was that, “When every shoeshine boy is offering stock tips, it’s time to get out of the market.” That advice arrived too late.

We’re presently at that point again, except that the profession of shoeshine boy has disappeared.

Incredibly, even heads of banks and Wall Street firms are now warning that the end is near. Perhaps the most unlikely expert of all to join this group is Lord Jacob Rothschild, who has now said, in a semi-annual report,

We do not believe this is an appropriate time to add to risk. Share prices have in many cases risen to unprecedented levels at a time when economic growth is by no means assured.

Clearly, he was careful not to employ phrasing that would be overly alarming, but he did make the quote to explain why he has dumped massive amounts of US assets (i.e., he’s getting out before the crash).

Meanwhile, the average investor, who contributes the oxygen to create all bubbles, is once again flying his kite, convinced that the tree will not once again eat his kite.

Regards,

 

Using force to compel people to accept money without real value can only work in the short run. It ultimately leads to economic dislocation, both domestic and international, and always ends with a price to be paid.

– Former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul

He who holds the gold makes the rules.

– Old saying

Chris Lowe: Why did you start researching the petrodollar system and its potential unraveling?

Nick Giambruno: This has been on my radar since 2006. That’s when Ron Paul, then a Republican congressman, spoke to Congress about the collapse of the dollar-based global monetary system.

As I recently told my Crisis Investing readers, I think it’s his most important speech ever. It’s called “The End of Dollar Hegemony.”

During the speech, Dr. Paul lays out why a global monetary order built around a fiat currency is doomed to fail.

Crucially, he pointed out the one thing that would precipitate the US dollar’s collapse—the end of the petrodollar system.

I recommend reading the speech in full. But this is the most important part:

The economic law that honest exchange demands only things of real value as currency cannot be repealed. The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or Euros.

I discussed this with Dr. Paul at a past Casey Research conference. He told me he stood by his assessment.

In a nutshell, he’s saying we’ll know the dollar-centric monetary system is on its way out when countries start trading oil for gold instead of dollars.

That’s already starting to happen.

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Chris Lowe: To catch up real quick, why is the petrodollar at risk?

Nick Giambruno: Under the current petrodollar system, all global oil sales are made in dollars. However, the Chinese government recently announced a new mechanism that will allow oil producers anywhere in the world to trade oil for gold.

China’s new mechanism will totally bypass the US dollar and the US financial system… along with any restrictions, regulations, or sanctions from Washington. So for many oil producers, it will be much more attractive than the petrodollar system.

I call it China’s “golden alternative” to the petrodollar. Whatever you call it, though, it will allow for the large-scale trade of oil for gold, instead of dollars.

Here’s how it will work. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange is launching a crude-oil futures contract denominated in yuan, China’s currency. This will allow oil producers around the world to sell their oil for yuan.

Of course, the yuan is a fiat currency, just like the dollar. And most oil producers don’t want large stashes of yuan. The Chinese government knows this. That’s why it’s linked the crude-oil futures contract with the option to efficiently convert yuan into physical gold through gold exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Chris Lowe: How soon will this new system be up and running?

Nick Giambruno: I spoke with officials at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange. They told me they plan to go live with it before the end of the year, or shortly thereafter.

Chris Lowe: But isn’t that a good thing? Isn’t gold, as a currency, more reliable than the dollar?

Nick Giambruno: I think it’s high time gold played a more central role in the global monetary system. The problem is ditching the petrodollar would negatively affect the US economy.

Think about it. If Italy wants to buy oil from Kuwait… or Argentina wants to buy oil from Brazil… they have to buy dollars on the foreign exchange market first.

This creates a huge artificial market for dollars.

It means the US can simply print dollars and exchange them for real things like French wine, Italian cars, Korean electronics, or Chinese manufactured goods.

It also helps create a deeper, more liquid market for US Treasury bonds. This pushes up prices… and pushes down yields… which allows the US federal government to finance enormous and permanent deficits.

The petrodollar has allowed Washington to spend astronomical amounts of money on welfare and other benefits for over half the population. This gives Americans a much higher standard of living than they would have otherwise. Most of them don’t know this or understand how it affects their everyday lives.

Thanks to the petrodollar, Washington can also sanction or exclude virtually any country from the dollar-based global financial system at the flip of a switch. By extension, it can also cut off any country from the vast majority of international trade.

Chris Lowe: Others have argued that this has led the US Deep State into military actions against anyone who threatens the petrodollar system. Is the Deep State that scared about the effects this could have on the economy and on its position as the world’s top power?

Nick Giambruno: Let’s put it this way, world leaders who have challenged the petrodollar system have ended up dead. Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi are prime examples.

In October 2000, Saddam started to sell Iraqi oil in euro only. He said Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil because it did not want to deal in the “currency of the enemy.”

A little over two years later, the US invaded Iraq. After Baghdad fell to US forces, all Iraqi oil sales were switched back to dollars.

And thanks to WikiLeaks’ release of Hillary Clinton’s emails, we know that protecting the petrodollar—not humanitarian concerns—was the main reason for America’s involvement in the ousting and killing of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

According to the leaked emails, the US—along with France—feared Gaddafi would use Libya’s vast gold reserves to back a pan-African currency. This gold-backed currency would have been used to buy and sell oil in global markets. It would have likely displaced the CFA franc—a version of the euro used in 14 central and west African nations.

As I’m sure you recall, the US and France backed a rebellion that overthrew Gaddafi in 2011. After his death, plans for the gold-backed currency—along with Libya’s 4.6 million ounces of gold—vanished.

Chris Lowe: What’s Russia’s role in all of this?

Nick Giambruno: The dollar is not just a currency. It’s a political weapon… and Washington is not shy about using it.

Most recently, it tried to punish Russia for its actions in Ukraine by imposing economic sanctions. This made it harder for Russia to access the dollar-based financial system. So it’s no surprise that Russia struck a deal to sell oil and gas to China for yuan afterward.

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Chris Lowe: How big a deal is it that Russia is working with China on bypassing the dollar?

Nick Giambruno: Russia is one of the world’s largest energy producers. And China is the world’s largest energy importer. Historically, they would trade with each other exclusively in US dollars.

But the Shanghai International Energy Exchange futures contract will streamline and solidify the process of selling oil to China for yuan—or effectively for gold.

When two of the biggest players in the global energy market totally bypass the petrodollar system, it’s a very big deal.

And it’s not just Russia and China. Other countries want to sidestep the US financial system and US economic sanctions, too. China’s “golden alternative” will give them the option to do just that. This will make the US dollar a much less effective political weapon.

Take Iran, for example. It’s the world’s fifth-largest oil producer. And it’s now accepting yuan as payment for its oil. So is Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. I think others will soon follow.

This all makes perfect economic sense. Oil-producing nations can continue with the petrodollar system and sell their oil for dollars. But there’s not much financial incentive to do that anymore. The Fed has deliberately pushed down US Treasury yields to “stimulate” economic growth. Plus, the system exposes US rivals to the whims of Washington.

Now oil producers have a second option. Through China’s “golden alternative,” they can sell their oil for yuan, then quickly and easily convert it to gold.

Unlike the dollar, gold is an international form of money with no political risk. From the perspective of an overseas oil producer—especially one with a poor relationship with the US—this is a no-brainer.

Chris Lowe: Russia may be one of the world’s largest oil producers. But Saudi Arabia is still the world’s largest oil exporter. And a lot of that oil goes to China, the world’s largest oil importer. The Saudis were also America’s partner in the petrodollar agreement back in 1974. Can’t the House of Saud use this influence to protect the petrodollar system?

Nick Giambruno: For now, the Saudis are refusing to participate in China’s “golden alternative.” That’s because selling oil for anything but dollars would break the petrodollar deal they made with the US back in 1974. Remember, the Saudis agreed to sell their oil exclusively in dollars in return for US arms and military protection.

Last year, on the campaign trail, Donald Trump said, “If Saudi Arabia was without the cloak of American protection, I don’t think it would be around.” He’s absolutely correct. If the Saudis started selling oil for yuan, they would immediately lose American diplomatic and military protection.

But Saudi Arabia is already looking for alternatives to American protection.

Chris Lowe: Who is it turning to?

Nick Giambruno: This is where the story gets really interesting. Russia and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades. The Saudis, along with the US, supported the Afghan mujahideen that drove the Soviet Army out of Afghanistan. The Saudis also supported a number of Chechen rebellions against Russia. And more recently, the Saudis and Russians have been on opposite sides of the Syrian Civil War.

But recently, the Saudi king—along with 1,500 members of his royal entourage—visited Moscow. It was the first official visit by a Saudi king to Russia. The trip coincided with a $10 billion Saudi investment in Russian energy projects and a $3 billion arms deal.

As part of that deal, the Saudis will buy Russia’s S-400 missile system. It’s arguably the most capable air defense system in the world. It’s a powerful deterrent to even US fighter jets.

Chris Lowe: I didn’t know the Saudis bought Russian weapons systems.

Nick Giambruno: They didn’t… up until now. Ever since the birth of the petrodollar, the Saudis have depended on American military protection. After all, it’s what they get in return for pricing their oil in dollars.

Chris Lowe: So why would the Saudis enter into an arms deal with Russia?

Nick Giambruno: The Saudis are hedging their bets. First, they’re not buying an American-made air-defense system. Second, they’re buying a Russian air-defense system that’s capable of deterring an American attack. The House of Saud is making significant moves, in other words, to give itself alternatives to American protection.

Chris Lowe: Is there any other evidence that Saudi Arabia is moving away from the US?

Nick Giambruno: Last August, Saudi Arabia announced it was willing to issue “Panda bonds” to finance its government spending deficit. These are yuan-denominated bonds from non-Chinese issuers that are sold in China.

This is remarkable. The Saudi currency, the riyal, is pegged to the dollar. Up until this point, Saudi Arabia has exclusively used US dollars for all of its major financial initiatives. Issuing debt in yuan is a significant move. It means that financially, Saudi Arabia is drifting closer to China.

Chris Lowe: Why does Saudi Arabia need to hedge its bets like this?

Nick Giambruno: A few years ago, Saudi oil made up over 25% of Chinese oil imports. They were Beijing’s No. 1 supplier. Today, the Saudis’ market share has dropped below 15%.

The Saudis are losing massive market share and getting pushed out of the biggest oil market in the world—mainly because they refuse to sell oil to China in yuan.

China has made itself clear. It’s willing to expand business with anyone who will accept yuan as payment.

Chris Lowe: If the Saudis bow to Chinese pressure, where does all that leave the petrodollar system?

Nick Giambruno: The Saudis haven’t made a clean break with the US and the petrodollar—yet. But they are drifting toward China financially and Russia militarily. These moves are already sidelining the petrodollar. The Saudis are clearly setting up the option to dump the petrodollar.

If the Saudis start to sell oil to China in yuan, it would kill the petrodollar overnight.

Short of that, things still look very dire for the petrodollar. What is baked into the cake—thanks, in large part, to China’s “golden alternative”—is the petrodollar’s significant erosion.

Chris Lowe: What specific advice do you have based on this prognosis?

Nick Giambruno: The increased demand for gold from China’s “golden alternative” to the petrodollar is going to shock the gold market. And this demand shock clearly hasn’t been priced into the gold market yet. As many of your readers will be aware, gold is still down significantly from its 2011 peak.

That’s why I am so bullish on gold right now. As the petrodollar dies, gold is going to replace it as the go-to currency for the oil trade. That makes the yellow metal the single best way to profit from this major shift in our monetary order.

I started warning about the end of the petrodollar late last year. That’s when I told Crisis Investing readers that the death of the petrodollar would be the No. 1 black swan event of 2017.

Eventually, people will look back and see China’s “golden alternative” as the catalyst that made it happen.

Editor’s Note: Few people appreciate how unstable America’s monetary system is. Our colleague and financial world legend Bill Bonner has an unparalleled track record for making spot-on political and economic predictions… and he says we’re teetering on the edge of a full-fledged economic shutdown. Click here for more straight from Bill.