Nick Rokke: T, you’ve talked about a new law working its way through Congress. The bill would make every bitcoin transaction under $600 exempt from capital gains taxes.

I know you’re really excited about it. How will it affect our readers?

Teeka Tiwari: This new law could be a turning point for bitcoin in America. Because it removes the No. 1 obstacle preventing people from using bitcoin on a daily basis here in the U.S.

You see, right now, even if you buy a cup of coffee with bitcoin, technically you have to pay a capital gains tax on the purchase.

Nick: Why is that?

Teeka: Because of an IRS mandate. Back in 2014, when the IRS was trying to figure out what bitcoin was, they classified it as “property.”

That means if you buy bitcoin, and it goes up in price and you use that bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee, technically you have to pay a 28% tax.

So under current law, you’d have to keep track of every single purchase you made along with the price you paid for your bitcoin…

Nick: That’s absurd.

Teeka: Totally absurd.

Obviously, in a case like this, bitcoin is being used as a currency—not property. Everyone can see that… except the IRS. They say it’s property, so it’s taxed at 28%.

Now, this is an unfair burden on bitcoin. Every other currency gets an exemption.

If a European comes to America and pays for a cup of coffee in euros, no problem. No capital gains tax. But if he pays in bitcoin? Sorry, he has to pay an extra tax.

Nick: But you’re saying this could all change by the end of the year?

Teeka: Lawmakers are pushing through a law that will eliminate this. It creates an exemption for bitcoin payments under $600, making them tax-free.

Nick: The same exemption other currencies get?

Teeka: The same exemption.

No more “coffee tax.” Bitcoin is treated just like every other currency. It’s put on an equal playing field with the dollar, the euro, the pound, etc.

Nick, this sets the regulatory stage for bitcoin to be used as a daily currency.

Nick: But Teeka, is bitcoin actually going to be used daily? I mean, do they even accept bitcoin at Starbucks?

Teeka: They do. They started accepting it late last year.

Subway, Microsoft, Expedia.com, Dell…

Over 100,000 stores across the globe now accept bitcoin as payment.

And hundreds of thousands more have signed up in just the past year.

Now, I’m not saying that, overnight, everyone is going to be using bitcoin instead of U.S. dollars.

But what I am saying is… this change in the law… it could help the day-to-day use of bitcoin increase significantly…

I wouldn’t be surprised if usage doubled in the next 12 months. And that would obviously increase demand for, and ownership of, bitcoin.

Nick: What would this do to bitcoin’s price?

Teeka: It would send it soaring. We know this because it’s happened before.

In July, Japan made all digital currencies, including bitcoin, exempt from its 8% consumption tax. Now, before the announcement, very few Japanese retailers accepted bitcoin as payment.

But within days, reports started coming out that over 260,000 outlets would soon be accepting bitcoin payments…

Just like that… bitcoin usage went through the roof.

Now, like I said earlier, if and when bitcoin receives similar tax exemptions here in the U.S., will everybody and their mother throw away their dollars and start using bitcoin?

No. But they don’t have to…

Even if we see a small uptick and a gradual increase in usage, that’s enough to send bitcoin’s price much, much higher than it is today.

Nick: So, let’s see, at today’s prices, that would send bitcoin well over $8,000.

Teeka: I think that’s our low-end estimate, Nick. Remember, the U.S. is a much bigger market than Japan. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a jump twice that big.

Nick: And what about other lesser-known cryptos? I assume they would benefit from this as well.

Teeka: Absolutely. They could soar much higher than bitcoin.

Nick: I hear you’re even giving away a small amount of bitcoin to readers?

Teeka: Yes, I’m so bullish on bitcoin, I bought $1 million worth to give away. You can think of it as a “seed” investment for anyone who joins my research service before midnight tonight.

I believe bitcoin could hit $10,000 in the not-too-distant future. And some of the cryptocurrency experts I’ve talked to believe that a single share of bitcoin will someday be worth over $1 million.

China pode resolver problema da Coreia do Norte “fácil e rapidamente”, diz Trump – Jornal O Popular
Veja mais em: https://www.opopular.com.br/editorias/mundo/china-pode-resolver-problema-da-coreia-do-norte-f%C3%A1cil-e-rapidamente-diz-trump-1.1389261

Dissemos aos leitores que não esperassem ver grandes alvoroços financeiros na China em 2017. A razão para tanto seria o Congresso Nacional do Partido, que ocorre a cada cinco anos e que acabou de ser realizado. O presidente chinês, Xi Jinping, queria que o Congresso lhe conferisse um segundo mandato de cinco anos e amplos poderes, e conseguiu. Ele também queria garantir que não ocorressem, na economia ou nos mercados de capitais chineses, quaisquer eventos desfavoráveis que pudessem atrapalhar seus planos. Por isso, a China reforçou a economia com gastos de infraestrutura sustentados por dívidas e segurou os juros, as flutuações da taxa de câmbio e as fugas de capitais até o encerramento do Congresso. Agora que o Congresso terminou, “O Grande Xi”, como é chamado por muitos o líder chinês, começará a resolver o desequilíbrio econômico do país usando seu novo poder político. Isso significa que veremos mais falências, menos gastos com infraestrutura e uma economia desacelerada. Este artigo mostra que essas mudanças já estão acontecendo, e revela sinais claros de uma desaceleração do crescimento chinês.

Essa situação só tende a piorar. Xi pode não conseguir a adaptação suave que espera e, ao remover es_mulos, como empréstimos bancários e juros baixos, pode acabar estourando as bolhas do mercado de ações, do mercado imobiliário e da dívida que têm impulsionado a China até então. O fato de isso estar acontecendo na China exatamente no momento em que os EUA passam por um processo similar de aperto aumenta a probabilidade de as duas maiores economias do mundo, EUA e China, pisarem no freio simultaneamente e, com isso, fazerem estourar as bolhas de ativos globais ao seu redor. A coisa mais inteligente que os investidores podem fazer é aumentar as alocações em dinheiro até esse gigantesco
experimento econômico acabar.

Parafraseando uma das grandes pérolas de sabedoria de Wall Street: “Nada enfurece mais um homem do que ver outras pessoas ganhando dinheiro”. A frase descreve muito bem o que acontece no estágio final de uma bolha do mercado de ações. Os participantes da bolha ganham dinheiro diariamente (ao menos se considerarmos os ajustes ao  valore mercado), enquanto o investidor mais paciente e prudente fica de fora, alocado em dinheiro ou investimentos de baixo risco, apenas assistindo aos outros se divertirem. Isso vale especialmente para o momento atual, em que a bolha não é restrita ao mercado de ações, mas inclui também espetáculos exóticos como as criptomoedas e o mercado
imobiliário chinês. A situação se torna ainda pior quando os investidores são insultados por manchetes como a deste artigo: “Os investidores têm duas opções: comprar bolhas ou ficar para trás” (em tradução livre). Este artigo tece uma análise favorável ao “Portfólio Borbulhante” (Bubblicious Portiolio). É realmente irritante. Mas não devia ser. Se
considerarmos valores ajustados ao risco, o investidor prudente não está perdendo muita coisa. Quando os mercados sobem 10%, 20% ou mais em períodos curtos, os participantes do mercado veem seus ganhos como dinheiro no banco. Mas isso não é verdade, a não ser que você venda e liquide os investimentos. Poucos fazem isso, pois têm medo de “perder” ganhos contínuos. O problema vem quando a bolha estoura e perdas de 30%, 40% ou mais se acumulam rapidamente. Os investidores dizem a si mesmos que são inteligentes o bastante para sair do mercado a tempo, o que também não é verdade. Normalmente, os investidores não acreditam nas cotações, “compram na baixa” (que continua caindo) e depois se recusam a vender até atingirem novamente o “ponto de equilíbrio”, o que pode levar dez anos. Esses são comportamentos previsíveis de investidores reais, presos em bolhas reais. O melhor é simplesmente diversificar, fazer uma reserva de dinheiro, ter algum ouro como seguro em caso de catástrofes e esperar fora da multidão da bolha.
Quando o colapso vier, o que sempre acontece, você estará bem posicionado para encontrar e comprar barganhas de alta qualidade em meio aos escombros. Então você poderá participar do novo movimento de alta de longo prazo sem os riscos atuais de colapso repentino.

Por mais que Bitcoin tenha se mostrado um investimento muito rentável nos últimos anos, a moeda virtual ainda é aceita em relativamente poucos lugares. Com isso em mente, a empresa britânica London Block Exchange (LBX) vai lançar o Dragoncard, um cartão que converte instantaneamente os Bitcoins dos clientes em dinheiro “real”, permitindo que eles paguem suas compras com a moeda.

O Dragoncard, de acordo com a empresa, é um cartão da bandeira Visa que funcionará de maneira sincronizada com um aplicativo de celular. Por meio do app, os usuários podem atrelar suas carteiras de Bitcoin ao cartão. Com isso, será possível realizara pagamentos usando a moeda virtual em qualquer estabelecimento que aceite cartões Visa.

Quando um cliente fizer isso, a LBX paga o lojista imediatamente em dinheiro. Em seguida, retira da carteira virtual do cliente o valor em Bitcoins equivalente à sua compra, cobrando uma taxa de 0,5%. Além de permitir que a Bitcoin seja usada como forma de pagamento em mais lugares, esse método também resolve outro dos problemas das transações com a moeda virtual: o da agilidade.

Segundo o Telegraph, as transações em Bitcoin normalmente levam alguns minutos para serem completadas, o que as tornaria pouco viável para o pagamento de compras em pontos de venda físicos. Mas como a LBX faz o acerto em dinheiro com o lojista e depois realiza uma transação em Bitcoin com os seus clientes, esse problema deixa de existir.

Disponibilidade

Além de Bitcoin, os clientes da LBX também poderão realizar essas mesmas transações pagando em outras moedas virtuais, como Ripple, Monero, Ethereum e Litecoin. Em todos os casos, é necessário antes usar o aplicativo para atrelar uma carteira virtual ao cartão. As transações têm as mesmas medidas de segurança todo o sistema bancário britânico, e o sistema já obteve aprovação provisória da autoridade reguladora financeira local.

De acordo com o Engadget, o Dragoncard será lançado ao longo das próximas semanas no Reino Unido. É necessário pagar uma taxa de 20 libras (R$ ) para obter o cartão, e a empresa também cobra taxas para saques em caixas eletrônicos. Por tratar-se de uma empresa de lá, é pouco provável que esse cartão seja disponibilizado em outros países. No entanto, é possível que a Visa trave parcerias com outras empresas em outros países para oferecer soluções semelhantes.

Ron Paul told me this would happen…

Dr. Paul first laid out his theory in 2006, in a little-known speech, during an otherwise dull session of Congress. I think it’s his most important speech ever.

During the speech, Paul traced the history of the US dollar within the international financial system.

Crucially, he pointed out the one thing that would precipitate the US dollar’s collapse. Now that one thing is about to happen.

Here’s the most important part (emphasis mine):

The economic law that honest exchange demands only things of real value as currency cannot be repealed. The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better.

In other words, we’ll know the dollar-centric monetary system is about to end when countries start trading oil for gold or its equivalent… not dollars.

Now—thanks to China—that’s about to happen in a very big way.

I discussed all of this with Ron Paul extensively at a past Casey Research conference. He told me he stands by his assessment.


Nick Giambruno and Ron Paul

China recently announced a mechanism that will make it possible to trade oil for gold on a large scale for the first time in many decades.

This mechanism could undermine the petrodollar system—the system that’s supported the US dollar as the top global currency since the 1970s.

I call it China’s “Golden Alternative” to the petrodollar.

Why the US Dollar Is So Special

The petrodollar system is the big reason the US dollar is so unique. Here’s how it works…

Oil is by far the largest and most strategic commodity market in the world. And, until recently, virtually anyone who wanted to import oil needed US dollars to pay for it.

Every country needs oil. And if foreign countries need US dollars to buy oil, they have a very compelling reason to hold large dollar reserves.

This creates a huge artificial market for US dollars. It also gives a tremendous boost to anyone who lives in the US or holds US dollars.

The petrodollar system is the reason foreign countries keep such large US dollar reserves.

Now China is set to hit the petrodollar with a mortal blow…

China’s Golden Alternative to the Petrodollar

Throughout history, every great power has had money that’s recognized around the world. Usually, these currencies have been tied to gold and silver.

Ancient Greece had the silver drachma. Rome had the silver denarius. The Islamic Caliphates had the gold dinar and the silver dirham. Venice had the gold ducat. Great Britain had the gold sovereign.

The United States used silver in its coins until 1964. And the dollar was under a pseudo-gold standard until 1971.

Now it’s China’s turn.

It’s no secret that China has been stashing away as much gold as it can.

Today, China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. According to informed observers, China now has official reserves of over 160 million ounces. It also has 400 million ounces in the ground that it could potentially mine.

(The US, by contrast, claims it has official reserves of around 260 million ounces.)

China’s Golden Alternative is the reason it’s been stashing so much gold.

The Golden Alternative will allow anyone in the world to trade oil for gold. It will totally bypass the US dollar and the US financial system.

For many, it will be much more attractive than the petrodollar system.

The Golden Alternative is the beginning of the end of the international monetary system that has reigned since the early 1970s.

Here’s how it will work…

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) is about to launch a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan. It will allow oil producers to sell their oil for yuan.

Of course, most oil producers don’t want a large reserve of yuan. China knows this.

That’s why China has explicitly linked the crude futures contract with the ability to convert yuan into physical gold through gold exchanges in Shanghai (the world’s largest physical gold market) and Hong Kong. The system won’t touch China’s official gold reserves.

Oil producers will have two ways to do this:

  1. Immediately convert the yuan they receive from selling oil into physical gold at the spot price for immediate delivery.
  2. Or, lock in the gold to be delivered at a future date for a fixed yuan price with a gold futures contract. This eliminates any uncertainty because of fluctuating prices.

Bottom line, it will allow oil producers to sell oil for gold. Producers will be able to completely bypass the petrodollar system and any restrictions/regulations/sanctions of the US financial system.

I recently spoke with the officials at the exchange. They told me they plan to go live with the INE crude contract before the end of the year.

China Wants Pricing Power

One of China’s key goals here is to reduce the dollar’s influence over oil pricing.

China is the world’s largest oil importer. Developing the new crude contract gives it some global pricing power.

Currently, most of the $1.7 trillion worth of oil traded each year is priced off of two US dollar-denominated crude benchmarks: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent.

Beijing thinks the yuan crude contract will reflect the market conditions in Asia better. It could become the most important oil benchmark in Asia.

The vice-chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently said:

The country will make crude oil futures the new starting point of opening up all futures markets…

And then, we will allow foreign players, whose enthusiasm is very high at present, to enter other futures markets, such as iron ore and PTA, when conditions are ripe.

In other words, oil is just the beginning.

Eventually, China plans to challenge the dollar’s dominance over all commodities.

PetroChina and Sinopec, two giant Chinese oil companies, will provide liquidity to the new yuan crude futures.

But non-Chinese companies will be welcome, too. The crude yuan future will be China’s first commodities futures contract open to foreign investors.

JPMorgan and UBS have already gained approval to trade. So have over 6,000 individual traders. It’s just a matter of time before the other big global players join.

Remember the big idea here… the new yuan crude futures contracts will be a huge hit to the petrodollar.

And it’s going to make a lot of money flood into gold—money that would have otherwise gone into the US dollar and US Treasuries.

“We Don’t Have a Country”

The breakdown of the petrodollar will cause a financial crisis.

Here’s how things will unravel…

The petrodollar system is one of the most powerful forces driving the US bond market. Oil producing countries accumulate hundreds of billions of US dollars in oil profits, which they recycle back into US Treasuries.

This keeps interest rates lower than they would be otherwise. It allows the US government to finance enormous deficits with debt at an artificially low cost.

If the petrodollar system unravels, interest rates will soar. (Interest rates are currently near historic lows.)

Even a small rate increase is a lethal threat to the US budget.

The US government currently needs over $400 billion from taxpayers just to pay the interest on its debt. Tax receipts are just over $2 trillion.

If interest rates rise…

  • 1%, the government would need over $600 billion to pay the interest on its debt.
  • 2%, it would need over $800 billion.
  • 3%, it would need $1 trillion.
  • 4%, it would need over $1.2 trillion, or over half of what it currently snatches from taxpayers—again, just to pay the interest.

Clearly, none of this is sustainable.

Trump was correct last year when he noted: “What happens if that interest rate goes up 2, 3, 4 points? We don’t have a country.”

In many ways, this could turn into President Trump’s financial 9/11.

The petrodollar system has allowed the US government and many Americans to live way beyond their means for decades.

The US takes this unique position for granted. But it will disappear once the petrodollar system breaks down.

When that happens, inflation could be severe.

This will likely be the tipping point…

Afterward, the US government will be desperate enough to implement capital controls, people controls, nationalization of retirement savings, and other forms of wealth confiscation.

I urge you to prepare for the economic and sociopolitical fallout while you still can. Expect bigger government, less freedom, shrinking prosperity… and possibly worse.

It’s probably not going to happen tomorrow. But it’s clear where this trend is headed.

It is very possible that one day soon, Americans will wake up to a new reality.

Infelizmente, o confronto chega no momento em que China e EUA enfrentam grandes
desafios internos.

Os EUA passam pelo equivalente a uma guerra civil. A coligação informal dos Democratas, de diversos Republicanos, da mídia, da organização não violenta conhecida como “Resistência” e da organização violenta Antifa (abreviação de “antifascista”) está determinada a deslegitimar a presidência de Donald Trump e a tirá-lo da Casa Branca.

A tática para tirar Trump do governo inclui processos de impeachment que se iniciarão em janeiro de 2019 caso os Democratas recuperem o controle da Câmara dos Representantes.

Trump não pode contar com um Senado Republicano para salvá-lo do eventual pedido de impeachment porque muitos Republicanos, a começar por John McCain, gostariam de ver o vice-presidente Mike Pence ocupando o lugar de Trump.
Além do impeachment, os oponentes do presidente tentarão usar a 25a Emenda, segundo a qual Mike Pence pode se tornar “presidente em exercício” se, junto a um grupo nomeado pelo Congresso, declarar que Trump “não pode desempenhar os poderes e deveres de seu cargo”.

Muito do burburinho da mídia pode ser visto como preparação para o uso da 25a

Emenda. Exemplo disso foram os comentários do senador Bob Corker, em 8 de outubro, segundo o qual o presidente precisa de uma “creche para adultos”.

Se os opositores não puderem removê-lo legalmente da presidência, pretendem abalar o governo com vazamentos, pedidos de demissão e disputas para que Trump renuncie por pura frustração ou sofra com a ingovernabilidade, o que é uma vitória para o status quo.

Infelizmente, alguns Democratas chegaram a falar sobre assassinato.

Os EUA passam pelo período de maior divisão e de pior funcionamento do sistema desde a véspera da Guerra Civil em 1860.

Os problemas não param por aí. O país está indo à falência. O coeficiente dívida/patrimônio já está em 105%, muito além dos 90% da “zona de perigo” identficada por economistas. Isso sem falar no valor presente líquido dos benekcios (valor dos impostos futuros), que só agravam o problema.

Esse coeficiente vai piorar porque os Republicanos estão abandonando a disciplina fiscal e adotando medidas que estouram o orçamento, como auxílio às vítmas de furacões e cortes de impostos. Todos concordam que assistência em catástrofes é necessária, e a maioria de nós gosta de redução de impostos, mas ninguém presta atenção ao déficit.
Os EUA estão entrando para o clube dos super devedores, do qual já fazem parte a Grécia e a Itália. Uma crise de confiança no dólar se aproxima.

Recently, the people of two of Italy’s most prosperous regions voted in a referendum, on whether they wished to have greater autonomy from Rome. The referendum is non-binding, but that’s not what’s most significant in the results.

What is significant is that over 95% of those who voted in Lombardy did so in favour of greater autonomy. In Veneto, the number in favour of greater autonomy was even higher, at 98%.

Roberto Maroni, president of Lombardy, said, “I now have a commitment… to go to Rome and give concrete actualization to the mandate that millions of Lombards have given me.”

It may appear on the surface that Mister Maroni intends to make an appeal for independence, but this is not what will occur. He’s a politician and won’t invite Rome to jail him for sedition. His goal will instead be to demand that a greater amount of the national income that’s generated by Lombardy and Veneto (about 20% of the total) remains within those regions.

This will not mean that he wants his people to be taxed less; his goal will be to retain a larger portion to be absorbed by the regional governments—to be in his own hands.

So much for the politicians’ agenda. But what does the referendum say about the people of the regions? Well, the extraordinarily high numbers in favour of greater self-determination demonstrate that virtually all the people in the regions have figured out that Rome is bilking them of their earnings and they’re getting pretty cheesed off.

In prosperous times, a population tends not to complain too much about being robbed through taxation. They grumble a bit, but tolerate it. However, in more stringent times, when people are finding it more difficult to make ends meet, they become more resentful of governments that are chronically both overreaching and wasteful.

Since 2008, we’ve been living in such a time, and the longer people go on without a true recovery, the more resentful they’re going to be.

Independence movements have been afoot in many countries in Europe, every state in the USA, and elsewhere on the globe, but, until recently, they’ve been minor issues, attracting primarily fringe support.

Brexit changed all that, as the people of one of the illustrious G7 countries voted to remove themselves from the parasitical EU.

This, of course, inspired the voters of “lesser” countries to consider the possibility of independence more seriously.

Some of these movements have been efforts by largely dependent entities such as Scotland to express the resentment of being the poor step-sister to a more prosperous central government, but others have been the result of the growing resentment that the province or region that’s producing the lion’s share of the national revenue is routinely having it siphoned off by the central government.

It’s predictable that any regional political leader will like the idea of independence, so that he can create his own country and become its president. However, in the present environment, we’re seeing the peopleof Lombardy, Veneto, Kurdish Iraq, and Catalonia voting overwhelminglyin favour of either full separation, or at least, greater autonomy.

Of course, this can’t be tolerated by the central governments, as it means that they’ll be losing all that revenue and, in many cases, this would collapse their economy.

But, at present, we’re looking at only the thin end of the wedge. There are countless other provinces and regions out there that have a similar desire to secede, and justifiably so.

After all, much of Europe, until the last century or so, was not made up of large countries. It was made up of lots of little tribal areas that sometimes worked collectively. Even the Roman Empire began as a collection of provinces.

Whilst we, today, are accustomed to a world map that’s remained largely the same throughout our lifetimes, there’s actually nothing sacred in the borders that were drawn on maps decades ago, often by people who had never been to those locales (in the case of former colonies and conquered areas). The smaller, tribal areas made more sense and actually worked more in favour of the inhabitants.

But, since World War II, the world has been headed in the direction of über states. The Unites States had already led the way in the late 18th century, but in recent times, the EU was formed and repeatedly expanded. In addition, many organisations have joined groups of countries together (ASEAN, Mercosur, Caricom, etc.).

In each case, the über states were created without the expressed majority interest of the voters. (In EU countries, referenda were sometimes held, but, in no case did a majority of voters vote in favour of joining the EU. The leaders did it in spite of the lack of support.)

Invariably, the über states were created by the political leaders and for the political leaders.

Not surprisingly, in each case in which the people of a province, state, or region have expressed a desire to secede, the central government has forcefully opposed secession. (The Americans fought their civil war, not over slavery, but over secession.)

Today, states such as Texas, which have repeatedly stated both their right and interest in possible secession, have been advised that, if they make such an attempt, they’ll be met with whatever force is required to stop it.

In Catalonia, we’re watching a standoff build between the leaders in Barcelona and Madrid, as each event unfolds.

And Catalonia is a good example of a further reason for a central government to resist the departure of a province: Should Catalonia succeed, there’s the likelihood that the adjoining regions of Valencia and the Balearic Islands might also be inspired to make an exit from Spain, and for the very same reason—because they’re the revenue producers and are having Madrid siphon off their earnings, to be spent on less-productive regions.

Governments have had a long history of claiming, “If we don’t all stick together, we’ll be doomed.” However, historically, the aggressors, more often than not, have been the empires. The smaller a country, the more likely it is to mind its own business.

In addition, the smaller a country, the more closely its leaders are to their people and, correspondingly, the more responsive they are to the people’s needs and goals.

The great majority of the armed conflict that exists today exists either in the larger countries, or, more often, due to the aggression of larger countries.

Brexit has most certainly been the cause of a trend for smaller entities to get up the courage to back away from the parasitical central governments. The hope would be that this trend will expand dramatically.

There can be no doubt that there are those who believe in and are doing their utmost to create a New World Order (they’ve been stating their intent for over a hundred years). Yet, just as we seem to be moving headlong in this direction, a reversal has begun to take place at the same time.

There can be no doubt that the reversal will be resisted strenuously; however, as the voting described above attests, this is a ground-uptrend, not a government-generated trend, and, historically, strong ground-up trends have had a healthy track record of success.

Não é comum incluirmos um artigo da revista Popular Mechanics entre nossos cinco links, já que o foco de nosso editorial é financeiro. Contudo, em um mundo em que as questões financeiras e geopolíticas convergem, uma análise especializada das forças militares, como a feita neste artigo, tem grande relevância para os investidores. Os EUA têm um total de 11 frotas de ataque de porta-aviões. Cada frota de ataque é liderada por um superportaaviões de propulsão nuclear. Dez dos superporta-aviões são da classe Nimitz e um da nova classe Ford, que conta com melhorias tecnológicas e otimizações operacionais. Até oito porta-aviões podem estar no porto base ao mesmo tempo, passando por reparos e 7 5 manutenção, fazendo atividades de treinamento ou aguardando ordens de mobilização. Apenas quatro ou cinco podem de fato estar em ação simultaneamente em uma das principais áreas de operações da marinha norte-americana. Este artigo informa que, atualmente, três frotas de ataque de porta-aviões estão posicionadas na área de operações do Pacífico Oeste próxima à península coreana. O poder de fogo de cada frota de ataque é maior do que o da marinha inteira de qualquer país do mundo. Neste momento, três das frotas de ataque dos EUA estão concentradas na Coreia. No mínimo, isso é uma demonstração de força que tem por objetivo convencer o líder norte-coreano, Kim Jongun, a desistir de seus planos de construir um arsenal de ICBMs nucleares capazes de dizimar o povo norte-americano. Esperamos que a estratégia funcione. Do contrário, as embarcações serão usadas para destruir o regime de Kim e eliminar a ameaça de uma vez por todas. Esse último desfecho, muito provável na minha opinião, não foi precificado pelos mercados. Quando for, provavelmente em 2018, devemos ver ralis dos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA, do dólar americano e do ouro, com possíveis colapsos nos mercados emergentes assim que o “hot money” retornar aos EUA, buscando um porto seguro em um mundo à beira da guerra.

Começam a aparecer as primeiras rachaduras na grande muralha de dívidas da China. Os excessos do endividamento do país asiáGco nos úlGmos dez anos são bem conhecidos. As empresas chinesas contraíram centenas de bilhões de dólares em dívidas, a maioria das quais é impagável sem os subsídios de Beijing. Na China, a razão dívida-capital próprio supera os 300%, um número muito pior do que o dos EUA (que também é perigosamente alto) e comparável ao do Japão e de outros devedores célebres. O mercado trilionário de produtos de gestão de riqueza (“wealth management products” ou WMPs, na sigla em inglês) da China é, essencialmente, um esquema Ponzi, no qual novos WMPs são usados para resgatar WMPs vencidos, enquanto a maior parte do mercado é simplesmente rolada, já que os empreendimentos imobiliários e projetos de infraestrutura aos quais esses produtos estão vinculados não têm a menor condição de arcar com suas dívidas. Boa parte 7 4 dos empréstimos corporativos são feitos de uma empresa para outra, a qual, por sua vez, empresta para outra, em uma dinâmica circular que faz parecer que todas as empresas envolvidas têm aGvo suficiente para honrar seus compromissos, quando, na verdade, nenhuma delas tem condições de pagar os credores. Estamos falando de um jogo de contabilidade em que não há nenhum dinheiro de verdade nem qualquer chance de exGnção das dívidas. Todos esses fatos são bem conhecidos. O que não se sabe é quando isso vai acabar. Quando a confiança ficará tão abalada que todo o castelo de cartas da dívida desabará? Quando chegará o momento em que um choque geopolítico ou um desastre natural provocará uma perda de confiança que dará início a um pânico financeiro? Poucas projeções foram feitas a respeito no último ano, porque o presidente chinês, Xi Jinping, estava abafando o problema em vista da proximidade do Congresso Nacional do Partido Comunista da China, realizado uma vez a cada cinco anos, e que acabou de ser concluído. Com o encerramento do Congresso, Xi está pronto para realizar reformas no sistema financeiro que envolverá o fechamento de empresas e bancos insolventes. Agora, as primeiras falências começaram a acontecer, como mostra este artigo. O Dandong Port Group, empresa que opera na região crítica próxima à Coreia do Norte, acaba de declarar insolvência. Esse pode ser o início de uma grande onda de insolvência. A questão agora é se Xi Jinping será capaz de implementar as reformas planejadas e fechar as empresas insolventes sem transformar o processo em algo ainda mais perigoso e incontrolável. Os sinais iniciais indicam que o processo de reestruturação será mais difícil que Xi esperava, e que a atual ameaça de pânico é a maior desde 2008.