Por vezes somos ludibriados por expressivos ganhos percentuais de nossas aplicações, porém, temos que utilizar outro raciocínio para verificar a real rentabilidade obtida.

O que você acharia de uma taxa de juros de 22%? Ótima não? O dobro do que conseguimos quando compramos títulos públicos no site do Tesouro Direto. Esta é exatamente a taxa de juros da Venezuela! Porém sua inflação em 2016 é de 720%, com previsão de 2200% para 2017. Isto faz com que não apenas sua rentabilidade seja insignificante, como se o poder de compra de seu montante principal fosse completamente dizimado.

Hoje em dia, na Venezuela, produtos simples tais como um par de tênis ou uma calça jeans, custam, respectivamente, U$ 1.200 e U$ 793 dólares. Outros produtos básicos, como alguns alimentos ou medicamentos, simplesmente deixaram de existir no país. Portanto, devemos entender a diferença entre um juro/rendimento real e um nominal.

O juro nominal diz respeito à taxa global oferecida. Desta taxa nominal ainda precisaríamos descontar o valor da inflação para saber qual foi o aumento do seu poder de compra (rendimento real).

Utilizaremos um título pré fixado (título no qual se acorda uma taxa fixa no momento da aquisição, independente da variação da Selic) com vencimento em 2019 para exemplo. Hoje, sua taxa negociada, ou seja, o rendimento a ser auferido é de 11,42% ao ano. Se o Banco Central Brasileiro conseguir de fato controlar a inflação no período de 2016 a 2019 teremos uma inflação de 4,5% ao ano. Desta forma seria correto dizer que a rentabilidade real do investidor seria de 6,92% de juros reais (11,42% menos 4,5% da inflação).

Percebam que a poupança hoje rende cerca de 6,5% nominais, portanto um rendimento real de aproximadamente 2%. Não há mais nenhuma razão, seja por rentabilidade ou risco, de aplicar em poupança. Além disto, cabe ressaltar o fato de que o rendimento da poupança apenas é aplicado na data de aniversário, ou seja, exatos 30 dias após o início da aplicação, portanto, um resgate do montante antes desta data irá apresentar rentabilidade zero.

Links Utéis:

https://hcinvestimentos.com/2011/03/28/risco-pais/

https://economia.uol.com.br/…/leite-em-po-na-venezuela-custa…

https://economia.uol.com.br/…/ensaio-dolar-inflacao-venezuel…

https://brasil.elpais.com/…/…/economia/1460485173_766551.html

Recently, the people of two of Italy’s most prosperous regions voted in a referendum, on whether they wished to have greater autonomy from Rome. The referendum is non-binding, but that’s not what’s most significant in the results.

What is significant is that over 95% of those who voted in Lombardy did so in favour of greater autonomy. In Veneto, the number in favour of greater autonomy was even higher, at 98%.

Roberto Maroni, president of Lombardy, said, “I now have a commitment… to go to Rome and give concrete actualization to the mandate that millions of Lombards have given me.”

It may appear on the surface that Mister Maroni intends to make an appeal for independence, but this is not what will occur. He’s a politician and won’t invite Rome to jail him for sedition. His goal will instead be to demand that a greater amount of the national income that’s generated by Lombardy and Veneto (about 20% of the total) remains within those regions.

This will not mean that he wants his people to be taxed less; his goal will be to retain a larger portion to be absorbed by the regional governments—to be in his own hands.

So much for the politicians’ agenda. But what does the referendum say about the people of the regions? Well, the extraordinarily high numbers in favour of greater self-determination demonstrate that virtually all the people in the regions have figured out that Rome is bilking them of their earnings and they’re getting pretty cheesed off.

In prosperous times, a population tends not to complain too much about being robbed through taxation. They grumble a bit, but tolerate it. However, in more stringent times, when people are finding it more difficult to make ends meet, they become more resentful of governments that are chronically both overreaching and wasteful.

Since 2008, we’ve been living in such a time, and the longer people go on without a true recovery, the more resentful they’re going to be.

Independence movements have been afoot in many countries in Europe, every state in the USA, and elsewhere on the globe, but, until recently, they’ve been minor issues, attracting primarily fringe support.

Brexit changed all that, as the people of one of the illustrious G7 countries voted to remove themselves from the parasitical EU.

This, of course, inspired the voters of “lesser” countries to consider the possibility of independence more seriously.

Some of these movements have been efforts by largely dependent entities such as Scotland to express the resentment of being the poor step-sister to a more prosperous central government, but others have been the result of the growing resentment that the province or region that’s producing the lion’s share of the national revenue is routinely having it siphoned off by the central government.

It’s predictable that any regional political leader will like the idea of independence, so that he can create his own country and become its president. However, in the present environment, we’re seeing the peopleof Lombardy, Veneto, Kurdish Iraq, and Catalonia voting overwhelminglyin favour of either full separation, or at least, greater autonomy.

Of course, this can’t be tolerated by the central governments, as it means that they’ll be losing all that revenue and, in many cases, this would collapse their economy.

But, at present, we’re looking at only the thin end of the wedge. There are countless other provinces and regions out there that have a similar desire to secede, and justifiably so.

After all, much of Europe, until the last century or so, was not made up of large countries. It was made up of lots of little tribal areas that sometimes worked collectively. Even the Roman Empire began as a collection of provinces.

Whilst we, today, are accustomed to a world map that’s remained largely the same throughout our lifetimes, there’s actually nothing sacred in the borders that were drawn on maps decades ago, often by people who had never been to those locales (in the case of former colonies and conquered areas). The smaller, tribal areas made more sense and actually worked more in favour of the inhabitants.

But, since World War II, the world has been headed in the direction of über states. The Unites States had already led the way in the late 18th century, but in recent times, the EU was formed and repeatedly expanded. In addition, many organisations have joined groups of countries together (ASEAN, Mercosur, Caricom, etc.).

In each case, the über states were created without the expressed majority interest of the voters. (In EU countries, referenda were sometimes held, but, in no case did a majority of voters vote in favour of joining the EU. The leaders did it in spite of the lack of support.)

Invariably, the über states were created by the political leaders and for the political leaders.

Not surprisingly, in each case in which the people of a province, state, or region have expressed a desire to secede, the central government has forcefully opposed secession. (The Americans fought their civil war, not over slavery, but over secession.)

Today, states such as Texas, which have repeatedly stated both their right and interest in possible secession, have been advised that, if they make such an attempt, they’ll be met with whatever force is required to stop it.

In Catalonia, we’re watching a standoff build between the leaders in Barcelona and Madrid, as each event unfolds.

And Catalonia is a good example of a further reason for a central government to resist the departure of a province: Should Catalonia succeed, there’s the likelihood that the adjoining regions of Valencia and the Balearic Islands might also be inspired to make an exit from Spain, and for the very same reason—because they’re the revenue producers and are having Madrid siphon off their earnings, to be spent on less-productive regions.

Governments have had a long history of claiming, “If we don’t all stick together, we’ll be doomed.” However, historically, the aggressors, more often than not, have been the empires. The smaller a country, the more likely it is to mind its own business.

In addition, the smaller a country, the more closely its leaders are to their people and, correspondingly, the more responsive they are to the people’s needs and goals.

The great majority of the armed conflict that exists today exists either in the larger countries, or, more often, due to the aggression of larger countries.

Brexit has most certainly been the cause of a trend for smaller entities to get up the courage to back away from the parasitical central governments. The hope would be that this trend will expand dramatically.

There can be no doubt that there are those who believe in and are doing their utmost to create a New World Order (they’ve been stating their intent for over a hundred years). Yet, just as we seem to be moving headlong in this direction, a reversal has begun to take place at the same time.

There can be no doubt that the reversal will be resisted strenuously; however, as the voting described above attests, this is a ground-uptrend, not a government-generated trend, and, historically, strong ground-up trends have had a healthy track record of success.

Não é comum incluirmos um artigo da revista Popular Mechanics entre nossos cinco links, já que o foco de nosso editorial é financeiro. Contudo, em um mundo em que as questões financeiras e geopolíticas convergem, uma análise especializada das forças militares, como a feita neste artigo, tem grande relevância para os investidores. Os EUA têm um total de 11 frotas de ataque de porta-aviões. Cada frota de ataque é liderada por um superportaaviões de propulsão nuclear. Dez dos superporta-aviões são da classe Nimitz e um da nova classe Ford, que conta com melhorias tecnológicas e otimizações operacionais. Até oito porta-aviões podem estar no porto base ao mesmo tempo, passando por reparos e 7 5 manutenção, fazendo atividades de treinamento ou aguardando ordens de mobilização. Apenas quatro ou cinco podem de fato estar em ação simultaneamente em uma das principais áreas de operações da marinha norte-americana. Este artigo informa que, atualmente, três frotas de ataque de porta-aviões estão posicionadas na área de operações do Pacífico Oeste próxima à península coreana. O poder de fogo de cada frota de ataque é maior do que o da marinha inteira de qualquer país do mundo. Neste momento, três das frotas de ataque dos EUA estão concentradas na Coreia. No mínimo, isso é uma demonstração de força que tem por objetivo convencer o líder norte-coreano, Kim Jongun, a desistir de seus planos de construir um arsenal de ICBMs nucleares capazes de dizimar o povo norte-americano. Esperamos que a estratégia funcione. Do contrário, as embarcações serão usadas para destruir o regime de Kim e eliminar a ameaça de uma vez por todas. Esse último desfecho, muito provável na minha opinião, não foi precificado pelos mercados. Quando for, provavelmente em 2018, devemos ver ralis dos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA, do dólar americano e do ouro, com possíveis colapsos nos mercados emergentes assim que o “hot money” retornar aos EUA, buscando um porto seguro em um mundo à beira da guerra.

Começam a aparecer as primeiras rachaduras na grande muralha de dívidas da China. Os excessos do endividamento do país asiáGco nos úlGmos dez anos são bem conhecidos. As empresas chinesas contraíram centenas de bilhões de dólares em dívidas, a maioria das quais é impagável sem os subsídios de Beijing. Na China, a razão dívida-capital próprio supera os 300%, um número muito pior do que o dos EUA (que também é perigosamente alto) e comparável ao do Japão e de outros devedores célebres. O mercado trilionário de produtos de gestão de riqueza (“wealth management products” ou WMPs, na sigla em inglês) da China é, essencialmente, um esquema Ponzi, no qual novos WMPs são usados para resgatar WMPs vencidos, enquanto a maior parte do mercado é simplesmente rolada, já que os empreendimentos imobiliários e projetos de infraestrutura aos quais esses produtos estão vinculados não têm a menor condição de arcar com suas dívidas. Boa parte 7 4 dos empréstimos corporativos são feitos de uma empresa para outra, a qual, por sua vez, empresta para outra, em uma dinâmica circular que faz parecer que todas as empresas envolvidas têm aGvo suficiente para honrar seus compromissos, quando, na verdade, nenhuma delas tem condições de pagar os credores. Estamos falando de um jogo de contabilidade em que não há nenhum dinheiro de verdade nem qualquer chance de exGnção das dívidas. Todos esses fatos são bem conhecidos. O que não se sabe é quando isso vai acabar. Quando a confiança ficará tão abalada que todo o castelo de cartas da dívida desabará? Quando chegará o momento em que um choque geopolítico ou um desastre natural provocará uma perda de confiança que dará início a um pânico financeiro? Poucas projeções foram feitas a respeito no último ano, porque o presidente chinês, Xi Jinping, estava abafando o problema em vista da proximidade do Congresso Nacional do Partido Comunista da China, realizado uma vez a cada cinco anos, e que acabou de ser concluído. Com o encerramento do Congresso, Xi está pronto para realizar reformas no sistema financeiro que envolverá o fechamento de empresas e bancos insolventes. Agora, as primeiras falências começaram a acontecer, como mostra este artigo. O Dandong Port Group, empresa que opera na região crítica próxima à Coreia do Norte, acaba de declarar insolvência. Esse pode ser o início de uma grande onda de insolvência. A questão agora é se Xi Jinping será capaz de implementar as reformas planejadas e fechar as empresas insolventes sem transformar o processo em algo ainda mais perigoso e incontrolável. Os sinais iniciais indicam que o processo de reestruturação será mais difícil que Xi esperava, e que a atual ameaça de pânico é a maior desde 2008.

Já escrevemos outras vezes sobre como o mercado de bitcoin é infestado de pessoas ligadas a tráfico de drogas, lavagem de dinheiro, terrorismo e coisas piores. Também já dissemos que os usuários compram, vendem e armazenam seus bitcoins em “corretoras” (também conhecidas como “exchanges”) que são, na verdade, redes de computadores não sujeitas a qualquer Gpo de regulação ou verificação e que, algumas vezes, desaparecem ou quebram, levando junto os bitcoins de seus clientes. Essas corretoras estão agora na mira das autoridades fiscais, órgãos reguladores de valores mobiliários e órgãos de repressão ao crime. Os usuários podem ter surpresas 7 3 desagradáveis quando algumas corretoras forem fechadas e seus bitcoins confiscados, ou quando começarem a receber cobranças de impostos sobre lucros não realizados de transações antigas. Este ar?go expõe ainda mais o ponto fraco (e podre) do ecossistema do bitcoin. A maior parte da “mineração” de bitcoin é feita na China, porque a mineração depende de um poder computacional gigantesco e de uma quantidade enorme de energia elétrica para manter o funcionamento e a refrigeração das máquinas. A eletricidade é barata na China porque é subsidiada pelo governo, por meio de uma grande rede de usinas termelétricas a carvão (uma das razões pelas quais o ar nessas regiões é preto e nocivo à saúde). Os mineradores fazem parte de um “clube” (descrito no artigo) cujas ambições vão além do bitcoin. A tentação dos mineradores chineses de dominar a tecnologia de registro distribuído não ocorre em computação com o governo, mas em cooperação com este. Trata-se de uma iniciativa que visa desestabilizar e, por fim, destruir os sistemas de pagamentos existentes, inclusive aqueles baseados no dólar americano. Ao mesmo tempo, na China, o Xpico comprador de bitcoin não tem fé no valor da criptomoeda no longo prazo, apenas a considera uma especulação que parece mais favorável quando comparada às limitadas opções de invesGmento de que dispõe a maioria dos investidores chineses (basicamente, ações e imóveis, dois aGvos que já estão com preços inflados). Os chineses sabem que o bitcoin vai despencar; eles apenas acreditam que conseguirão repassar seus bitcoins para algum otário antes que o mercado quebre.

“Inflation” occurs when the creation of currency outruns the creation of real wealth it can bid for… It isn’t caused by price increases; rather, it causes price increases.

Inflation is not caused by the butcher, the baker, or the auto maker, although they usually get blamed. On the contrary, by producing real wealth, they fight the effects of inflation. Inflation is the work of government alone, since government alone controls the creation of currency.

In a true free-market society, the only way a person or organization can legitimately obtain wealth is through production. “Making money” is no different from “creating wealth,” and money is nothing but a certificate of production. In our world, however, the government can create currency at trivial cost, and spend it at full value in the marketplace. If taxation is the expropriation of wealth by force, then inflation is its expropriation by fraud.

To inflate, a government needs complete control of a country’s legal money. This has the widest possible implications, since money is much more than just a medium of exchange. Money is the means by which all other material goods are valued. It represents, in an objective way, the hours of one’s life spent in acquiring it. And if enough money allows one to live life as one wishes, it represents freedom as well. It represents all the good things one hopes to have, do, and provide for others. Money is life concentrated.

As the state becomes more powerful and is expected to provide more resources to selected groups, its demand for funds escalates. Government naturally prefers to avoid imposing more taxes as people become less able (or willing) to pay them. It runs greater budget deficits, choosing to borrow what it needs. As the market becomes less able (or willing) to lend it money, it turns to inflation, selling ever greater amounts of its debt to its central bank, which pays for the debt by printing more money.

As the supply of currency rises, it loses value relative to other things, and prices rise. The process is vastly more destructive than taxation, which merely dissipates wealth. Inflation undermines and destroys the basis for valuing all goods relative to others and the basis for allocating resources intelligently. It creates the business cycle and causes the resulting misallocations and distortions in the economy.

We know the old saw “The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer.” No one ever said life had to be fair, but usually there is no a priori reason why the rich must get richer. In a free-market society the sayings “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” and “A fool and his money are soon parted” might be better descriptions of reality. We do not live in a free-market society, however.

The rich and the poor do have a tendency to draw apart as a society becomes more bureaucratic, but not because of any cosmic law. It’s a consequence of any highly politicized system. Government, to paraphrase Willie Sutton, is where the money is. The bigger government becomes, the more effort the rich, and those who want to get that way, will put into making the government do things their way.

Only the rich can afford the legal counsel it takes to weave and dodge through the laws that restrict the masses. The rich can afford the accountants to chart a path through loopholes in the tax laws. The rich have the credit to borrow and thereby profit from inflation. The rich can pay to influence how the government distorts the economy, so that the distortions are profitable to them.

The point is not that rich people are bad guys (the political hacks who cater to them are a different question). It is just that in a heavily regulated, highly taxed, and inflationary society, there’s a strong tendency for the rich to get richer at the expense of the poor, who are hurt by the same actions of the government.

Always, and without exception, the most socialistic, or centrally planned, economies have the most unequal distribution of wealth. In those societies the unprincipled become rich, and the rich stay that way, through political power. In free societies, the rich can get richer only by providing goods and services others want at a price they can afford.

As inflation gets worse, there will be a growing public outcry for government to do something, anything, about it.

People will join political action committees, lobbying groups, and political parties in hopes of gaining leverage to impose their will on the country at large, ostensibly for its own good.

Possible government “solutions” will include wage and price controls, credit controls, restrictions on changing jobs, controls on withdrawing money from bank accounts, import and export restrictions, restrictions on the use of cash to prevent tax evasion, nationalization, even martial law—almost anything is possible. None of these “solutions” addresses the root cause—state intervention in the economy. Each will just make things worse rather than better.

What these solutions all share is their political nature; in order to work they require that some people be forced to obey the orders of others.

Whether you or I or a taxi driver on the street thinks a particular solution is good or not is irrelevant. All of the problems that are just beginning to crash down around society’s head (e.g., a bankrupt Social Security system, federally protected banks that are bankrupt, a monetary system gone haywire) used to be solutions, and they must have seemed “good” at the time, otherwise they’d never have been adopted.

The real problem is not what is done but rather how it is done: that is, through the political process or through the free market. The difference is that between coercion and voluntarism. It’s also the difference between getting excited, frustrated, and beating your head against a wall and taking positive action to improve your own standard of living, to live life the way you like it, and, by your own example, to influence society in the direction that you’d like to see it take—but without asking the government to hold a gun to anyone’s head.

Political action can change things. Russians in the ’20s, Germans in the ’30s, Chinese in the ’40s, Cubans in the ’50s, Congolese in the ’60s, South Vietnamese and Cambodians in the ’70s, then Rhodesians, Bosnians, Rwandans, and Venezuelans today are among those who certainly discovered it can. It’s just that the changes usually aren’t very constructive.

That’s the nature of government; it doesn’t create wealth, it only allocates what others have created. More typically, it either dissipates wealth or misallocates it, because it acts in ways that are politically productive (i.e., that gratify and enhance the power of politicians) rather than economically productive (i.e., that allow individuals to satisfy their desires in the ways they prefer).

It’s irresponsible to base your own life on what hundreds of millions of other people and their rulers may or may not do. The essence of being a free person is to be causative over your own actions and destiny, not to be the effect of others. You can’t control what others will do, but you can control yourself.

If you’re counting on other people, or political solutions of some type, most likely it will make you unwary and complacent, secure in the hope that “they” know what they’re doing and you needn’t get yourself all flustered with worries about the collapse of the economy.

Teeka Tiwari just released his latest cryptocurrency predictions….
And if history is any guide, you’ll want to look at them right away.
For example…
In September 2016, Teeka recommended a so-called “privacy coin” and predicted that it would deliver a huge short-term windfall.
He told his readers that it was “an asymmetric bet that can make you 15 times your money.”
Just as he predicted, the crypto soared…
Those who followed his advice had the chance to book 1,522% gains in 11 months.

 

A few months later, Teeka recommended an Austin, Texas-based crypto.
It was trading for around $4, but Teeka predicted that it would soon be trading “at a minimum of $13.70.”
Sure enough, within two months, it had blown past that mark… and continued to climb higher.

 

Then, in February 2017, Teeka recommended putting $200 in a crypto he calls the “Ethereum of China,” and made a huge prediction:
“If we are really right and [this crypto] becomes China’s version of Ethereum, your little stake could be worth as much as $40,000.”
As predicted, this crypto skyrocketed…

 

A few months later, we heard from Jon M., who said:
“I placed about $300 into [the Ethereum of China]. I was left nearly speechless last night when I discovered that my $300 had grown to over $43,300.”
And later, Jon followed up to say that his gains had reached as high as $125,000.
That’s the kind of gain that can completely change your retirement – all from a tiny $300 investment.
As I said, Teeka just released his cryptocurrency predictors for 2018.
If they’re anywhere close to as accurate as his previous forecasts, the next 12 months could be your most profitable ever.
To look at all of them for free – including why a new currency law could send Bitcoin and several smaller cryptos through the roof by January – click here.
Dear Reader,
I recently spoke to a crowd of several hundred people in Las Vegas about cryptocurrencies.
Whenever I’m asked to speak on this topic, I can’t tell you how many people tell me: “It’s too late to buy cryptocurrencies. The opportunity’s gone.”
I don’t blame people for thinking they’re too late.
After all, Bitcoin alone has soared 1,562% since I recommended it last year…
And overall, my picks have returned an average of 1,629% over the past 18 months.
But when you look closer, it’s clear that we have a long way to go.
Even with all the growth we’ve seen in the past year, cryptos still represent just 0.1% of all currencies.
The gold market alone is 38 times bigger!
As Bitcoin pioneer Charlie Shrem said during my emergency briefing:
“If Bitcoin can get 1% of the gold market, if 1% of all gold holders bought Bitcoin, you’d see a Bitcoin price over one million dollars for a coin.”
As of today, a single Bitcoin is trading over $7,000. So even if Charlie is half right… it’s clear that we’ve just scratched the surface.
Bottom line: If you’re looking for the chance to potentially turn a few hundred dollars into a small fortune, now’s the time to act.
I’ve put together a presentation that explains just how high I think Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could go over the long haul – and how you can position yourself today to take full advantage.
Plus, I share all the details of a groundbreaking currency law that could send Bitcoin and several smaller cryptos soaring by January (when the EU passed a similar law, Bitcoin shot up 80% in two weeks).
There’s no charge to access this presentation, but it’s only available for the next few days.
We already removed my webinar from our website, so this presentation is your only way to access my latest ideas.
Dear Crypto Academy Member,
I wanted to give you one last reminder…
At midnight, we’re ending our first-ever Palm Beach ConfidentialPayment Plan.
If you wait until tomorrow, you won’t have this option available…
But if you click here right now, you’ll have the chance to take advantage of it now. Frankly, we have no idea when, or even if, we’ll ever make this an option again.
Plus, you’ll also have the chance to take advantage of my 1,000% guarantee.
I’m so confident in my latest recommendations… and the cryptocurrency market in general for 2018… that I guarantee you’ll have the chance to make 1,000% total gains over the next 12 months.
If that seems like a big promise, keep in mind that I’ve already helped folks make as much as 14,354% this year… So I think it will end up being a low-end estimate.
Just remember, you have very little time to access this first-ever payment plan option…
It disappears in just a few hours. And once it’s gone, it’s gone.
Follow this link for all the details.
Sincerely,

Bitcoin vai acabar com o dinheiro que usamos hoje em poucos anos, diz estrategista do Deutsche – InfoMoney
Veja mais em: https://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/bitcoin/noticia/7068091/bitcoin-vai-acabar-com-dinheiro-que-usamos-hoje-poucos-anos?utm_campaign=bitcoin&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=58285052